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Does COIN Stock Deserve a Spot in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q3 Earnings?

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Key Takeaways

  • Coinbase is set to report Q3 earnings of $1.06 per share on revenues of $1.7 billion.
  • Higher volatility and trading activity likely boosted transaction and subscription revenues.
  • International growth, Deribit addition and stablecoin strength may have supported COIN's Q3 performance.

Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, after market close. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.7 billion, indicating a 44.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.06 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter earnings has moved up 5 cents in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 71%. 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

COIN’s Decent Earnings Surprise History

COIN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 310.23%. 

What the Zacks Model Unveils for COIN 


Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Coinbase this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Coinbase’s Earnings ESP is -0.84%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.05 per share is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
 

Coinbase Global, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Coinbase Global, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Coinbase Global, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Coinbase Global, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Coinbase currently has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape COIN’s Q3 Results

Higher volatility, driving increased trading volume as well as revenues, is likely to have driven the third-quarter performance of Coinbase. Crypto trading remains a major revenue driver for COIN, thus strategic initiatives to continually introduce crypto assets bode well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trading volume is pegged at 299 million, indicating a 61.6% increase from the year-ago reported quarter. Both institutional as well as consumer trading is likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter.

The addition of Deribit is likely to have added meaningful new revenue streams and boosted its presence among institutional investors. 
International expansion, the rise of derivatives and spot trading, and the deeper integration of USD Coin into the crypto ecosystem are likely to have supported growth in Coinbase’s two largest revenue streams — trading fees and stablecoins.

Higher crypto asset volatility, coupled with improved crypto asset prices, is likely to have driven the growth of Coinbase One subscribers as well as unit inflows across staking, custody and USDC assets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenues is pegged at $939 million, indicating an upside of 63.9% from the year-ago reported quarter.

Coinbase also expects transaction expenses to be in the mid-to-high teens as a percentage of net revenues.

Blockchain rewards, stablecoin-related income and revenues from Coinbase One subscriptions are likely to have aided subscription and services revenues. COIN expects third-quarter subscription and services revenues to be in the range of $665-$745 million, driven by higher average crypto prices and stablecoin revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $712 million.

An increase in digital marketing spending is likely to have increased sales and marketing expenses. COIN projects sales and marketing to be between $190 million and $290 million. 

Technology investments aimed at improving operational efficiency, combined with disciplined cost control, are likely to have led to lower expenses and enhanced profit margins.

Coinbase expects third-quarter technology and development and general and administrative expenses to be in the range of $800-$850 million, attributable to higher headcount.

COIN’s Price Performance & Valuation

The stock outperformed the industry, but underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 in the third quarter of 2025. 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5749, higher than the industry’s 24.03. 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Shares of Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR - Free Report) , two other crypto-oriented stocks, are also trading at multiples higher than the industry average.

Investment Thesis

Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from heightened crypto asset volatility, rising prices, and the increasing adoption of digital assets in a more supportive regulatory landscape. The accelerating adoption of stablecoins is poised to boost revenues further. Coinbase stands to gain from strengthened banking relationships, new licenses and the introduction of customized products for diverse customer segments. With a clear growth strategy, the company is increasing its market share in both the U.S. spot and derivatives markets, broadening its product suite and expanding its presence globally. 

While the Derbit acquisition establishes Coinbase as a global force in futures, options and perpetuals, deals like Liquifi and One River Digital broaden COIN's tokenization and institutional services.

CEO Brian Armstrong envisions Coinbase to be the “everything exchange.” Thus, this crypto exchange has been constantly working toward achieving the same.  It has been building a compelling portfolio consisting of varied crypto assets. 

Coinbase remains focused on operational efficiency through a disciplined cost structure. Although its return on equity lags the industry average, the company’s debt position is relatively stronger. In addition, a favorable improvement in the times interest earned ratio offers some financial flexibility. The steady growth in cash and cash equivalents also signals a strengthening liquidity position.

What Should Investors Do Now With COIN Stock?

The Trump administration is swiftly advancing its agenda to make the United States a global hub for cryptocurrency innovation. In this supportive environment, this crypto leader’s efforts to accelerate growth in the crypto market, increase market share in spot trading on consumer and institutional trading platforms and improve trading experience, along with continued innovation, should help it accelerate growth. 

Given a premium valuation and below-average return on equity, it is wise to stay cautious on this stock.


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