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TMDX Stock Falls Despite Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

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Key Takeaways

  • TMDX's Q3 EPS jumped 450% year over year, beating estimates by 78.4%.
  • TMDX's revenue rose 32.2% to $143.8M, led by OCS demand and logistics expansion.
  • TMDX's operating margin expanded to 16.2% as product and service growth accelerated.

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX - Free Report) delivered earnings per share (EPS) of 66 cents in the third quarter of 2025, which surged 450% year over year. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 78.4%.

TMDX’s Revenues in Detail

TransMedics registered revenues of $143.8 million in the third quarter, up 32.2% year over year. However, the figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8%.

Per management, the uptick resulted from the increase in utilization of the Organ Care System (OCS), primarily in liver and heart through the National OCS Program (NOP), and additional revenues generated by the addition of TransMedics logistics services.

During the reported quarter, TMDX was able to cover 78% of its NOP missions requiring air transport compared with approximately 61% in the third quarter of 2024.

However, shares of this company lost 9.5% in yesterday’s after-market trading. The company’s shares have surged 118.8% in the year-to-date period against the industry’s decline of 1.5%. The broader S&P 500 Index has increased 18.6% in the same time frame.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

TransMedics’ Segment Details

TMDX derives revenues via two sources — Net product revenue and Service revenue.

In the third quarter of 2025, Net product revenues totaled $87.7 million, up 33.1% year over year. Growth was driven by increased organ utilization in the liver and continued OCS adoption across both the liver and the heart.

Service revenues totaled $56.1 million, up 30.9% year over year, drivenprimarily by logistics.

Transplant Logistics’ services revenues for third-quarter 2025 were$27.2 million, up 35% year over year. This resulted from the continued expansion and utilization of TransMedics’ aviation fleet.

TMDX’s Margin Trend

In the quarter under review, TransMedics’ gross profit increased 39% year over year to $84.6 million. The gross margin expanded 290 basis points (bps) to 59%.

Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 2.8% year over year to $46 million. Research, development and clinical trials expenses surged 6.9% year over year to $15.3 million. Total operating expenses of $61.3 million increased 7.6% year over year.

Operating profit totaled $23.3 million, reflecting a 493.9% jump from the prior-year quarter. The operating margin in the third quarter expanded 1260 bps to 16.2%.

TransMedics Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

TransMedics Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

TransMedics Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | TransMedics Group, Inc. Quote

TransMedics’ Financial Position

TransMedics exited third-quarter 2025 with cash of $466.2 million compared with $400.6 million at the end of second-quarter 2025. Total long-term debt at the end of third-quarter 2025 was $54.6 million compared with $59.5 million at the end of second-quarter 2025.

Cummulative net cash provided by operations at the end of the third quarter was $158.3 million compared with $29.1 million at the third quarter of 2024-end.

TMDX’s Guidance

TransMedics has raised the midpoint and narrowed the range of its full-year 2025 revenue guidance.

For the full year, the company now expects revenues in the range of $595 million-$605 million (reflecting growth of 36% at the midpoint from the comparable 2024 figures). This is narrower than the prior outlook of $585 million to $605 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $600.1 million.

Our Take on TransMedics

TransMedics exited third-quarter 2025 with better-than-expected results. The solid top and bottom-line performances and the uptick in Transplant Logistics services revenues were encouraging. Strength in both revenue sources was also impressive. The expansion of the operating margin bodes well.

TransMedics outlined multiple forward product programs, led by its next-gen ENHANCE Heart and DENOVO Lung trials, which will begin enrolling patients in the fourth quarter of 2025, with full IDE clearance expected early 2026. These are designed for revenue-generating superiority trials that can meaningfully boost U.S. heart and lung OCS adoption beginning in 2026. The company is also advancing its OCS Kidney program, with preclinical and product development underway and the device design set to be unveiled in early 2026 ahead of a revenue-producing clinical program; additionally, development of a Gen-3 OCS platform is progressing, with more details to come in the second half of 2026.

The company is preparing large-scale geographic and operational expansion, first by launching its inaugural international NOP program in Italy during the first half of 2026, supported by up to four regional hubs, and eventually building a European logistics network similar to the U.S. model. TMDX has raised its aviation capacity to 22 aircraft and plans to pilot “double-shifting” the fleet to improve asset utilization and margins. Management is also finalizing a new global headquarters and manufacturing campus in Somerville to consolidate operations and support future scaling.

TMDX’s Zacks Rank and Key Picks

TransMedics currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader medical space are Solventum Corporation (SOLV - Free Report) , Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX - Free Report) and HealthEquity (HQY - Free Report) .

Solventum, sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present, has an estimated long-term growth rate of 4.1%. SOLV’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 13.91%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Solventum’s shares have gained 8.2% compared with the industry’s 6.2% growth so far this year.

Boston Scientific, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present, has an estimated long-term growth rate of 14%. BSX’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 8.1%.

Boston Scientific’s shares have gained 13.2% compared with the industry’s 5.6% growth so far this year.

HealthEquity, carrying a Zacks Rank of 2 at present, has an estimated long-term growth rate of 21.7%. HQY’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 11.05%.

HealthEquity’s shares have risen 0.6% compared with the industry’s 6.2% growth so far this year.

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