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Alaska Air Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

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Key Takeaways

  • Alaska Air posted Q3 EPS of $1.05, missing estimates and down 53.3% year over year.
  • Revenue rose 23% to $3.76B, led by strong passenger demand and cargo and other revenue growth.
  • Load factor dipped to 84.8% as traffic growth lagged capacity expansion; fuel costs fell 3.8%.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.05 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11 per share and declined 53.3% year over year.

Operating revenues of $3.76 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75 billion. The top line jumped 23% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 90.9% of the top line and increasing 21% owing to consistency in air-travel demand.

Passenger revenues totaled $3.42 billion in the reported quarter. On a year-over-year basis, cargo and other revenues increased 78% to $142 million. Loyalty program other revenues grew 17% year over year to $200 million.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Alaska Air Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote

Other Details of ALK’s Q3 Earnings

All comparisons have been presented on a year-over-year basis unless mentioned otherwise.

Revenue per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) fell 0.5% to 15.41 cents. Yield decreased 0.7% to 16.51 cents.

Reflecting the uptick in air-travel demand, consolidated traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) grew 22.2% to 20.73 billion. To cater to this increased demand, capacity (measured in average seat miles) rose 23.2% to 24.44 billion. Although traffic improved on a year-over-year basis, it failed to outpace capacity expansion. As a result, the load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) fell to 84.8% from 85.5% in the prior-year period.

In the third quarter, total operating expenses (on a reported basis) grew 32% to $3.62 billion.

Economic fuel price per gallon fell 3.8% to $2.51.

Consolidated operating costs per available seat mile (excluding fuel and special items) grew 10.5%.

Liquidity

As of Sept. 30, 2025, Alaska Air had $778 million of cash and cash equivalents compared with $750 million at the end of the prior quarter. ALK exited the third quarter of 2025 with long-term debt (net of current portion) of $4.49 billion compared with $4.44 billion at the end of the prior quarter.

During the first nine months of 2025, ALK repurchased 10.6 million shares for $540 million.

ALK’s Outlook

ALK anticipates fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share to be $0.40. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at 56 cents per share.

Fourth-quarter unit revenues are expected to increase by low single digits on a year-over-year basis. Unit costs for the fourth quarter are anticipated to increase by low single-digits year-over-year and reflect significant cost synergies, with fourth-quarter capacity expected to grow 2%-3% on a year-over-year basis. Fuel costs are expected to remain a headwind due to ongoing volatility in West Coast refining costs.  

For 2025, adjusted earnings per share is expected to be at least $2.40.The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $2.56 per share.

Full-year unit revenues are expected to increase by low single digits on a year-over-year basis. Unit costs for 2025 are anticipated to increase by mid-single-digits year-over-year, with fourth-quarter capacity expected to grow 2% on a year-over-year basis.

Adjusted earnings per share guidance assumes economic fuel price per gallon between $2.50 and $2.60, non-operating expense of nearly $50 million and a tax rate of 32%.

Currently, ALK carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Q3 Performances of Other Transportation Companies

Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 46 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.71 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52. Earnings increased 14% on a year-over-year basis due to low fuel costs.

Revenues in the September-end quarter were $16.67 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.79 billion and increasing 6.4% on a year-over-year basis. Due to improving air-travel demand, adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 4.1% year over year to $15.2 billion. 

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.76 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 and improved 18.1% year over year.

Total operating revenues of $3.05 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.02 billion and were down 0.5% year over year. JBHT’s third-quarter revenue performance was hurt by a 1% and 4% decline in gross revenue per load in Intermodal (JBI) and Truckload (JBT), respectively, a decrease in load volume of 8% and 1% in Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) and Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), and 8% fewer stops in Final Mile Services (FMS). These items were partially offset by a 3 % improvement in DCS productivity, a 9% increase in revenue per load in ICS and 14% load growth in JBT. Total operating revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, fell less than 1% year over year.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL - Free Report) reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but revenues missed the same.

UAL's third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.78 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64 but declined 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies above the guided range of $2.25 and $2.75.

Operating revenues of $15.2 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.3 billion but increased 2.6% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.7% of the top line) increased 1.9% year over year to $13.8 billion. UAL flights transported 48,382 passengers in the third quarter, up 6.2% year over year

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