Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Northern to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • Northern Oil and Gas will post Q3 results on Nov. 6, with EPS seen at $0.82 and revenues at $506.36M.
  • Natural gas and NGL revenues are projected to surge 111.6% year over year in the reported quarter.
  • Operating expenses are estimated to rise 10.7%, potentially pressuring Northern Oil and Gas' margins.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter results on Nov. 6, 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 82 cents per share and that for revenues is pinned at $506.36 million.

Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced this oil and gas exploration and production company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at NOG’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of NOG’s Q2 Earnings

In the last reported quarter, this Minnetonka, MN-based independent energy company’s earnings beat the Zacks consensus mark thanks to year-over-year strong production. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.37, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents. Additionally, revenues of $574.4 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $519 million.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average surprise of 23.79%.

This is depicted in the graph below:

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Quote

NOG’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed two upward and one downward movements in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 1.40% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 41.43% decrease from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider for NOG’s Q3 Performance

NOG's Natural Gas and NGL revenues are likely to have improved in the quarter to be reported. The company generates revenues by acquiring oil and gas properties in high-potential areas and then extracting and selling oil and natural gas. Northern Oil and Gas often holds non-operating working interests in wells, which allows it to earn a share of the revenues without bearing the operational costs associated with drilling and maintaining those wells. This strategy is advantageous as it minimizes financial risk while still capitalizing on production.

Income from these operations has been heavily influenced by market conditions, particularly the fluctuating prices of oil and gas. Our model projects third-quarter Natural Gas and NGL revenues to increase 111.6% year over year compared with the year-ago quarter’s level of $498.8 million.

According to our model, NOG's total average daily production volume is expected to increase 7.5% year over year, reaching 131 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d). The daily production volume for oil is expected to rise 1.6%, while natural gas and NGL production are projected to increase 15.5% year over year in the quarter to be reported.

On a net basis, total production volumes are anticipated to climb 7.5% year over year to 12,047.5 Mboe. Net oil production is projected to grow 1.8% to 6,638.6 thousand barrels of oil (MBbls), while natural gas and NGL volumes are expected to surge 15.5% to 32,453.3 million cubic feet.

On a somewhat bearish note, the increase in NOG’s costs might have dented its to-be-reported bottom line. The company’s third-quarter total operating expenses are likely to total $353.8 million, which is up 10.7% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Moreover, its production tax expenses are expected to increase from $14.7 million to $42.4 million in the same time frame. Its general and administrative expenses are expected to increase from $10 million to $12.9 million in the same period.

What Does Our Model Predict for NOG?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Northern Oil and Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NOG has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms from the other space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Delek US Holdings (DK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +98.57% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Valued at around $2.27 billion, DK has gained 138.1% in a year. Delek US Holdings is a diversified downstream energy company engaged in refining and logistics, with operations across the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southwest. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7. Delek US Holdings’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 16.06%.

ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.55% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7. Valued at around $1.97 billion, ANI Pharmaceuticals has gained 61.8% in a year.

The company develops, manufactures and markets high-quality branded and generic prescription pharmaceuticals, with a focus on niche and complex products. ANI Pharmaceuticals’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 22.66%.

Franklin Resources (BEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 7. Valued at around $11.74 billion, BEN has gained 12.1% in a year.

Franklin Resources, founded in 1947 and headquartered in San Mateo, CA, is a global asset management firm offering investment solutions across equity, fixed income and alternative markets. Through its subsidiaries, Franklin Resources serves a diverse client base and operates offices in major financial hubs worldwide.

Published in