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Premium Performers or Policy Flops? 3 Insurers Face Q3 Earnings Test
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Key Takeaways
Aflac may post higher Japan sales and U.S. persistency, partly offset by rising expenses.
AIG's earnings likely rose on improved underwriting income and steady investment gains.
Assurant's Q3 may see earnings surge 41% on strength in Global Housing and Lifestyle units.
The third-quarter 2025 earnings season is in full swing, and attention is now turning to the insurance industry. Several major S&P 500 players, including Marsh & McLennan, AON and Hartford Financial, have already posted results that topped expectations, setting a constructive tone for the sector. With momentum building, the focus now shifts to the next wave of reports from Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) , American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) and Assurant, Inc. (AIZ - Free Report) , all due tomorrow. Before diving into their specifics, it’s worth examining the broader industry backdrop shaping investor sentiment.
The Insurance space belongs to the Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification), overall earnings of which are projected to jump 21.1% from the year-ago quarter. Revenues are expected to grow 7.9%, as indicated by our latest Earnings Preview.
Important Points for Investors
The third-quarter earnings for insurance companies are expected to reflect a solid foundation of underwriting strength, supported by continued digital innovation and effective use of reinsurance. Improved pricing, strong retention rates, growth in exposure across business lines and digital transformation initiatives have aided insurers. However, these positives were partially offset by strategic reserve adjustments in some cases.
Encouragingly, Gallagher Re’s Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report: Third-quarter 2025revealed that global catastrophe activity was relatively subdued. The quarter ranked among the least costly for insurers in decades, with total economic losses estimated below $50 billion, the lowest third-quarter numbers since 2006. Lower tropical cyclone activity, combined with manageable flood and storm events around the globe, contributed to the reduced loss tally.
Easing uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate cuts also gave insurers better visibility to manage portfolios and lock in attractive yields. Meanwhile, auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel activity across the world. Robust operating cash flows and increased bond yields were major contributors to the sector’s improved performance. Although rising operating expenses remain a watch point, efficiency gains from Insurtech integration and automation likely mitigated some cost pressures, enhancing profitability.
With Aflac, AIG and Assurant on deck, investors are eager to see whether these favorable macro and industry dynamics can translate into another round of earnings beats. The big question now: Will the sector’s pricing power and digital agility prove enough to sustain its winning streak, or will the third quarter expose a few cracks in the coverage?
What’s in Store for AFL, AIG & AIZ on Nov. 4?
Our proprietary model clearly indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key elements — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Against the above backdrop, let’s find out how the following three companies are placed ahead of their third-quarter earnings release tomorrow.
Aflac: The company is likely to have witnessed higher new annualized premium sales in the Japan segment, driven by strong demand for its products. Strong sales and persistency rates in the U.S. business are also likely to have contributed to the upside. The Zacks Consensus estimate for total net earned premiums indicates 2.4% year-over-year growth. However, the upside is expected to be partly offset by elevated acquisition and operating expenses, coupled with reduced net investment income in the U.S. segment. The consensus mark indicates a 2.2% decline in net investment income in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter earningsstands at $1.80 per share, which increased by 2 cents over the past month. Aflac’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 6.6%. Revenues are expected to surge 52.2% year over year to $4.49 billion.
American International Group: This leading multiline insurer’s third-quarter revenues are expected to have been supported by 1.9% net investment income growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the General Insurance underwriting income indicates a 13.8% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for loss ratio is pegged at 60.59%, an improvement from the year-ago level of 60.7%. However, the estimate for General Insurance net premiums earned predicts a 0.2% decline.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter earnings and top line is pegged at $1.68 per share and $6.85 billion, respectively, indicating an earnings surge of 36.6% and a revenue increase of 0.1% from the corresponding year-ago quarter’s readings. AIG’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 9.5%.
American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AIG this time around. This is because the stock has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Assurant: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Assurant’s net earned premiums, fees and other income indicates a 10.3% year-over-year decline. But the consensus mark for net investment income suggests a 1.3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher yields and assets in fixed maturity securities. Revenues at Global Lifestyle are expected to have increased 4.8%. Adjusted EBITDA from Global Housing is likely to have jumped 65.4% in the third quarter, while the same for Global Lifestyle is predicted at 7% growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter earnings and top line stands at $4.23 per share and $3.16 billion, respectively, indicating an earnings surge of 41% and revenue growth of 5.9% from the corresponding year-ago quarter. AIZ’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the last four quarters, the average surprise being 18.9%.
Image: Bigstock
Premium Performers or Policy Flops? 3 Insurers Face Q3 Earnings Test
Key Takeaways
The third-quarter 2025 earnings season is in full swing, and attention is now turning to the insurance industry. Several major S&P 500 players, including Marsh & McLennan, AON and Hartford Financial, have already posted results that topped expectations, setting a constructive tone for the sector. With momentum building, the focus now shifts to the next wave of reports from Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) , American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) and Assurant, Inc. (AIZ - Free Report) , all due tomorrow. Before diving into their specifics, it’s worth examining the broader industry backdrop shaping investor sentiment.
The Insurance space belongs to the Finance sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry classification), overall earnings of which are projected to jump 21.1% from the year-ago quarter. Revenues are expected to grow 7.9%, as indicated by our latest Earnings Preview.
Important Points for Investors
The third-quarter earnings for insurance companies are expected to reflect a solid foundation of underwriting strength, supported by continued digital innovation and effective use of reinsurance. Improved pricing, strong retention rates, growth in exposure across business lines and digital transformation initiatives have aided insurers. However, these positives were partially offset by strategic reserve adjustments in some cases.
Encouragingly, Gallagher Re’s Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report: Third-quarter 2025revealed that global catastrophe activity was relatively subdued. The quarter ranked among the least costly for insurers in decades, with total economic losses estimated below $50 billion, the lowest third-quarter numbers since 2006. Lower tropical cyclone activity, combined with manageable flood and storm events around the globe, contributed to the reduced loss tally.
Easing uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate cuts also gave insurers better visibility to manage portfolios and lock in attractive yields. Meanwhile, auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel activity across the world. Robust operating cash flows and increased bond yields were major contributors to the sector’s improved performance. Although rising operating expenses remain a watch point, efficiency gains from Insurtech integration and automation likely mitigated some cost pressures, enhancing profitability.
With Aflac, AIG and Assurant on deck, investors are eager to see whether these favorable macro and industry dynamics can translate into another round of earnings beats. The big question now: Will the sector’s pricing power and digital agility prove enough to sustain its winning streak, or will the third quarter expose a few cracks in the coverage?
What’s in Store for AFL, AIG & AIZ on Nov. 4?
Our proprietary model clearly indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key elements — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Against the above backdrop, let’s find out how the following three companies are placed ahead of their third-quarter earnings release tomorrow.
Aflac: The company is likely to have witnessed higher new annualized premium sales in the Japan segment, driven by strong demand for its products. Strong sales and persistency rates in the U.S. business are also likely to have contributed to the upside. The Zacks Consensus estimate for total net earned premiums indicates 2.4% year-over-year growth. However, the upside is expected to be partly offset by elevated acquisition and operating expenses, coupled with reduced net investment income in the U.S. segment. The consensus mark indicates a 2.2% decline in net investment income in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter earningsstands at $1.80 per share, which increased by 2 cents over the past month. Aflac’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 6.6%. Revenues are expected to surge 52.2% year over year to $4.49 billion.
Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for Aflac this time around, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
American International Group: This leading multiline insurer’s third-quarter revenues are expected to have been supported by 1.9% net investment income growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the General Insurance underwriting income indicates a 13.8% year-over-year jump. The consensus mark for loss ratio is pegged at 60.59%, an improvement from the year-ago level of 60.7%. However, the estimate for General Insurance net premiums earned predicts a 0.2% decline.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter earnings and top line is pegged at $1.68 per share and $6.85 billion, respectively, indicating an earnings surge of 36.6% and a revenue increase of 0.1% from the corresponding year-ago quarter’s readings. AIG’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 9.5%.
American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. Quote
However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AIG this time around. This is because the stock has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Assurant: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Assurant’s net earned premiums, fees and other income indicates a 10.3% year-over-year decline. But the consensus mark for net investment income suggests a 1.3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher yields and assets in fixed maturity securities. Revenues at Global Lifestyle are expected to have increased 4.8%. Adjusted EBITDA from Global Housing is likely to have jumped 65.4% in the third quarter, while the same for Global Lifestyle is predicted at 7% growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter earnings and top line stands at $4.23 per share and $3.16 billion, respectively, indicating an earnings surge of 41% and revenue growth of 5.9% from the corresponding year-ago quarter. AIZ’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the last four quarters, the average surprise being 18.9%.
Assurant, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Assurant, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Assurant, Inc. Quote
Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for AIZ this time around as well, as the stock has an Earnings ESP of +4.14% and a Zacks Rank #3.