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Energy Transfer to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Energy Transfer is expected to report higher Q3 revenues and earnings year over year.
  • Fee-based contracts and strong NGL exports likely supported quarterly performance.
  • Weaker Bakken activity and lower gas optimization margins might have limited gains.

Energy Transfer LP (ET - Free Report) is expected to report a year-over-year improvement in both revenues and earnings when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5, after market close.
 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $22.91 billion, indicating a 10.28% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research


The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 33 cents per unit. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET’s third-quarter earnings indicates a 3.13% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ET’s Surprise History

Energy Transfer’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters while surpassing it in one and reported on par in the other two quarters, resulting in an average negative surprise of 2.59%.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Energy Transfer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

Energy Transfer LP Price and EPS Surprise

Energy Transfer LP Price and EPS Surprise

Energy Transfer LP price-eps-surprise | Energy Transfer LP Quote

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

ET’s Earnings ESP: Energy Transfer has an Earnings ESP of -9.00%.

Zacks Rank: Energy Transfer currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Factors Likely to Have Shaped ET’s Q3 Earnings

Fee-based contracts are estimated to have contributed nearly 90% of Energy Transfer’s earnings, a trend that is expected to continue in the upcoming quarterly results. These predominantly fee-based arrangements provide the company with a stable and predictable revenue stream, which is likely to have supported its performance in the third quarter.

Energy Transfer continues to expand its clean power generation portfolio as planned, having brought the second of eight planned 10-megawatt natural gas-fired power plants online. This development is anticipated to have positively impacted earnings.

The company has also been leveraging its extensive pipeline infrastructure across key production basins, benefiting from rising hydrocarbon output. Following increased volumes of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids (“NGL”) transported through its pipelines in the second quarter, a similar trend is likely to have persisted into the third quarter.

Energy Transfer has brought online new processing plants in the Midland Basin and Delaware Basin, which will allow the firm to process more volumes produced from these regions.

The company’s earnings are expected to have been bolstered by strong NGL export volumes. Energy Transfer’s export terminals offer unmatched flexibility and ship-loading capabilities, allowing it to export NGLs to more than 55 countries. With an export capacity of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day, this segment likely made a significant contribution to the firm’s third-quarter performance.

Third-quarter earnings are likely to have been pressured by weakness in the Bakken, stemming from a slower-than-anticipated recovery in dry gas areas and reduced volatility in the gas optimization business, which have limited spreads and storage margins.

Stocks to Consider This Season

Here are some stocks in the same sector that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat this season.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) is expected to beat third-quarter earnings estimates when it reports results on Nov. 6, 2025. The firm currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company reported an average earnings surprise of 7.12% in the last four quarters.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX - Free Report) is expected to beat third-quarter earnings estimates when it reports results on Nov. 6, 2025.  The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.31% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of AMTX’s 2025 and 2026 earnings per share indicates year-over-year growth of 28.8% and 85.79% respectively.

Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK - Free Report) is expected to beat third-quarter earnings estimates when it reports results on Nov. 7, 2025. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +98.57% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of DK’s 2025 and 2026 earnings per share indicates year-over-year growth of 36.35% and 68.97%, respectively.

ET Stock Trading at a Discount

Energy Transfer units are somewhat inexpensive on a relative basis, with its current trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA TTM) being 9.13X compared with the industry average of 10.35X.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ET Stock’s Price Performance

ET’s units have gained 2% in the past year against the Zacks Oil and Gas Production Pipeline – MLB industry’s decline of 5.3%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Investment Thesis

Energy Transfer operates an extensive network of nearly 140,000 miles of pipelines and related infrastructure spanning 44 states, strategically positioning it to capitalize on increasing U.S. production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids.

Ongoing investments to expand its pipeline and processing capacity are expected to further solidify Energy Transfer’s leading position in the midstream sector. Its strong LNG export capabilities, combined with rising domestic demand, are likely to have driven continued performance growth.

However, the company depends on a number of key producers for its natural gas supply. The loss of any of these producers could adversely impact financial results unless comparable supply sources are promptly secured.

Wrapping Up

Energy Transfer continues to benefit from rising demand by effectively leveraging its extensive asset base across the United States. Strategic acquisitions have complemented its organic growth initiatives, further strengthening the company’s overall performance.

The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by its broad geographic footprint and ongoing efforts to grow operations through both organic expansion and strategic acquisitions. However, near-term weakness in the Bakken region might have impacted storage margins.

In the quarter to be reported, earnings estimates have remained unchanged over the past 60 days. However, projections for the fourth quarter and full-year 2025 have been revised downward during the same period. However, investors should exercise caution and consider staying on the sidelines for now, focusing instead on other pipeline stocks within the industry.

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