We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Are These 4 Energy Stocks Set to Beat Q3 Earnings Estimates?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Crude averaged $65.74 per barrel in Q3, down 14% year over year amid oversupply and weaker demand.
Natural gas averaged $3.03 per MMBtu, up 44% on supply disruptions and strong LNG export demand.
Energy sector Q3 earnings are expected to fall 4.9% year over year, lagging the broader S&P 500's growth.
With approximately 38% of S&P 500 energy companies having reported their third-quarter 2025 results, early reports indicate that the challenges are having a noticeable impact on earnings. The quarter saw mixed trends within the Oils-Energy sector — crude prices fell due to oversupply and global economic concerns, while natural gas prices climbed amid tighter supply and geopolitical tensions.
This split in commodity performance is creating a complex earnings landscape for the sector. As more companies get ready to release their third-quarter results, investors will be closely watching how they’re adjusting to market volatility — whether through cost management, portfolio shifts or a heightened focus on natural gas opportunities. Key companies to watch includes APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) , Permian Resources Corporation (PR - Free Report) , Energy Transfer (ET - Free Report) and Devon Energy Corporation (DVN - Free Report) .
Competing Market Dynamics Push Oil Prices Lower and Natural Gas Prices Higher in Q3 2025
In the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices fell sharply. West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) averaged $65.74 per barrel, down 14% from the $76.24 seen in the same period of 2024. This decline was largely attributed to an oversupply in the market, as OPEC+ nations reversed previous production cuts, collectively adding more than 1.3 million barrels per day to global output.
Additionally, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the threat of renewed tariffs on imports from India and a softening of industrial demand expectations contributed to a bearish market sentiment. President Trump’s policies, aimed at controlling energy costs to curb inflation, also placed downward pressure on prices. Moreover, the International Energy Agency’s downgraded global consumption projections further fueled the negative outlook.
In contrast, natural gas prices rose sharply. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.03 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during third-quarter 2025, marking a 44% increase from $2.11 in the third quarter of 2024. This surge was driven by a combination of supply disruptions and strong demand. The global liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) market remained tight, as supply disruptions in the Middle East, due to the Israel-Iran conflict, hindered exports. U.S. natural gas inventories remained below the five-year average, while robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia helped maintain a tight domestic supply.
Additionally, concerns over potential geopolitical disruptions to key shipping lanes and the impact of tariffs on LNG equipment imports added to the rising production costs, further strengthening the upward momentum in natural gas prices throughout the quarter.
Q3 Earnings Preview: Energy Sector in Decline as Broader Market Grows
The Oil/Energy sector continues to face significant headwinds, with third-quarter 2025 earnings projected to decline 4.9% year over year, according to the latest Zacks Earnings Trends report. This figure, while representing a sharp sequential improvement from the negative 16.9% plunge in second-quarter 2025, still places the sector firmly in contraction territory. The core issue is a severe margin squeeze. Revenues are expected to grow a meager 1%, which is insufficient to offset rising operational costs and volatile commodity prices, leading to a decline in net profitability.
This performance starkly contrasts with the broader S&P 500, which is demonstrating robust health with earnings and revenues both growing at 7.3%. The energy sector's role as a market drag is clear: excluding it, the index's earnings growth would jump 60 basis points to 7.9%. This year-over-year underperformance is part of a longer-term trend, with full-year 2025 earnings for the sector expected to be down negative 9.7%, even as the S&P 500 as a whole grows 9.8%.
Energy Sector Earnings Outlook: Key Companies Under the Microscope
In light of the current market conditions, let us take a closer look at the positioning of several oil and energy firms as they prepare for their third-quarter earnings reports on Nov. 5. We will examine their ability to tackle ongoing challenges in the sector.
Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
APA Corporation is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of a Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share, indicating a 26% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. APA’s earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and missed twice over the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 24.89%. (read more: APA Corporation Q3 Earnings on Deck: Here's How It Will Fare)
Permian Resources Corporation is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of a Midland, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 30 cents per share, indicating a 14.29% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. PR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average surprise of 2.68%. (read more: What's in Store for Permian Resources Stock in Q3 Earnings?)
This is depicted in the chart below:
Permian Resources Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Energy Transfer is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of a Dallas, TX-based oil and gas storage and transportation company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of -9.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 33 cents per share, indicating a 3.13% increase from the prior-year reported figure. ET’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average negative surprise of 2.59%. (read more: Energy Transfer to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?)
Devon Energy Corporation is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of an Oklahoma City, OK-based oil and gas exploration and production company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 93 cents per share, indicating a 15.45% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. DVN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average surprise of 4.06%.
Image: Bigstock
Are These 4 Energy Stocks Set to Beat Q3 Earnings Estimates?
Key Takeaways
With approximately 38% of S&P 500 energy companies having reported their third-quarter 2025 results, early reports indicate that the challenges are having a noticeable impact on earnings. The quarter saw mixed trends within the Oils-Energy sector — crude prices fell due to oversupply and global economic concerns, while natural gas prices climbed amid tighter supply and geopolitical tensions.
This split in commodity performance is creating a complex earnings landscape for the sector. As more companies get ready to release their third-quarter results, investors will be closely watching how they’re adjusting to market volatility — whether through cost management, portfolio shifts or a heightened focus on natural gas opportunities. Key companies to watch includes APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) , Permian Resources Corporation (PR - Free Report) , Energy Transfer (ET - Free Report) and Devon Energy Corporation (DVN - Free Report) .
Competing Market Dynamics Push Oil Prices Lower and Natural Gas Prices Higher in Q3 2025
In the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices fell sharply. West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) averaged $65.74 per barrel, down 14% from the $76.24 seen in the same period of 2024. This decline was largely attributed to an oversupply in the market, as OPEC+ nations reversed previous production cuts, collectively adding more than 1.3 million barrels per day to global output.
Additionally, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the threat of renewed tariffs on imports from India and a softening of industrial demand expectations contributed to a bearish market sentiment. President Trump’s policies, aimed at controlling energy costs to curb inflation, also placed downward pressure on prices. Moreover, the International Energy Agency’s downgraded global consumption projections further fueled the negative outlook.
In contrast, natural gas prices rose sharply. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.03 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during third-quarter 2025, marking a 44% increase from $2.11 in the third quarter of 2024. This surge was driven by a combination of supply disruptions and strong demand. The global liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) market remained tight, as supply disruptions in the Middle East, due to the Israel-Iran conflict, hindered exports. U.S. natural gas inventories remained below the five-year average, while robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia helped maintain a tight domestic supply.
Additionally, concerns over potential geopolitical disruptions to key shipping lanes and the impact of tariffs on LNG equipment imports added to the rising production costs, further strengthening the upward momentum in natural gas prices throughout the quarter.
Q3 Earnings Preview: Energy Sector in Decline as Broader Market Grows
The Oil/Energy sector continues to face significant headwinds, with third-quarter 2025 earnings projected to decline 4.9% year over year, according to the latest Zacks Earnings Trends report. This figure, while representing a sharp sequential improvement from the negative 16.9% plunge in second-quarter 2025, still places the sector firmly in contraction territory. The core issue is a severe margin squeeze. Revenues are expected to grow a meager 1%, which is insufficient to offset rising operational costs and volatile commodity prices, leading to a decline in net profitability.
This performance starkly contrasts with the broader S&P 500, which is demonstrating robust health with earnings and revenues both growing at 7.3%. The energy sector's role as a market drag is clear: excluding it, the index's earnings growth would jump 60 basis points to 7.9%. This year-over-year underperformance is part of a longer-term trend, with full-year 2025 earnings for the sector expected to be down negative 9.7%, even as the S&P 500 as a whole grows 9.8%.
Energy Sector Earnings Outlook: Key Companies Under the Microscope
In light of the current market conditions, let us take a closer look at the positioning of several oil and energy firms as they prepare for their third-quarter earnings reports on Nov. 5. We will examine their ability to tackle ongoing challenges in the sector.
Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
APA Corporation is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of a Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 74 cents per share, indicating a 26% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. APA’s earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and missed twice over the last four quarters, resulting in an average surprise of 24.89%. (read more: APA Corporation Q3 Earnings on Deck: Here's How It Will Fare)
This is depicted in the chart below:
APA Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
APA Corporation price-eps-surprise | APA Corporation Quote
Permian Resources Corporation is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of a Midland, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 30 cents per share, indicating a 14.29% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. PR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average surprise of 2.68%. (read more: What's in Store for Permian Resources Stock in Q3 Earnings?)
This is depicted in the chart below:
Permian Resources Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Permian Resources Corporation price-eps-surprise | Permian Resources Corporation Quote
Energy Transfer is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of a Dallas, TX-based oil and gas storage and transportation company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of -9.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 33 cents per share, indicating a 3.13% increase from the prior-year reported figure. ET’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average negative surprise of 2.59%. (read more: Energy Transfer to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?)
This is depicted in the chart below:
Energy Transfer LP Price and EPS Surprise
Energy Transfer LP price-eps-surprise | Energy Transfer LP Quote
Devon Energy Corporation is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell. The chances of an Oklahoma City, OK-based oil and gas exploration and production company delivering an earnings beat this time around are low, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 93 cents per share, indicating a 15.45% decrease from the prior-year reported figure. DVN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and fell short in one, resulting in an average surprise of 4.06%.
This is depicted in the chart below:
Devon Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Devon Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Devon Energy Corporation Quote