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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PTON’s fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be at breakeven, flat year over year. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days.
PTON Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $541.1 million, indicating a decline of 7.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Peloton has a modest earnings surprise history in the trailing four quarters. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged twice, the average surprise being 36.3%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 171.4%.
PTON Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for PTON Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Peloton this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat on earnings. But that's not the case here.
PTON’s Earnings ESP: Peloton has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Peloton’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is expected to have been influenced by a combination of seasonal challenges and strategic investments aimed at driving longer-term growth. In particular, the company is likely to have faced headwinds from a typical fiscal first-quarter slowdown in hardware sales and subscription growth, alongside a strategic focus on cost optimization and innovation to counter these challenges.
One of the key factors affecting Peloton's performance in the fiscal first quarter is the seasonal decline in hardware sales. Historically, the first quarter of the fiscal year sees lower equipment sales as the company prepares for the holiday season, which tends to generate higher sales volumes in subsequent quarters. This seasonal dip in hardware revenues is expected to have weighed on Peloton’s overall revenues during the period, contributing to an anticipated year-over-year revenue decline of approximately 9%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues from connected fitness products is pegged at $139 million compared with $159.6 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Subscription revenues are projected at $402.5 million compared with $426.3 million reported in the year-ago quarter.
Additionally, Peloton is likely to have experienced pressure in its subscription segment during the first quarter. With a slight uptick in churn and fewer new member sign-ups due to the seasonal nature of fitness subscriptions, Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions are expected to be between $2.72 million and $2.73 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6% at the midpoint.
The company expects fiscal first quarter adjusted EBITDA to fall between $90 million and $100 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of $21 million (or 18%, at the midpoint) largely due to the anticipated revenue decline.
However, several positive fundamentals are expected to have partly offset these challenges. Peloton’s cost-saving initiatives — including its restructuring plan aimed at achieving $100 million in savings by the end of fiscal 2026 — are likely to have made a meaningful impact on the company’s bottom line. These savings, achieved through workforce optimization, reduced indirect spending, and lower stock-based compensation, are expected to have aided the bottom line in the fiscal first quarter.
Furthermore, Peloton’s strategic focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings is expected to have helped mitigate some of the declines in hardware and subscriptions. The company has made significant strides in enhancing its wellness offerings, such as the introduction of strength training, mental well-being programs and improved personalization through AI-driven features. These innovations are designed to deepen engagement with existing members and potentially boost average revenue per member.
Increased focus on commercial business is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal first quarter. The integration of Precor into Peloton’s operations, along with increasing partnerships in the gym and hotel sectors, is expected to have aided its performance, helping to diversify revenue streams beyond consumer-facing hardware and subscriptions.
PTON Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Peloton shares have gained 2.2% in the past three months against the industry’s fall of 9.6%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Brunswick Corporation (BC - Free Report) shares have gained 11.3%, while Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT - Free Report) and Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF - Free Report) have declined 15.9% and 5%, respectively.
PTON Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PTON stock is currently trading at a discount. It is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.19, well below the industry average of 2.09. Then again, other industry players, such as Brunswick, Planet Fitness and Acushnet Holdings have P/S ratios of 0.78, 5.49 and 1.76, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Considerations for PTON Stock
Peloton’s ongoing transformation is supported by strong demand trends in its expanding wellness offerings, which include strength training, mental well-being and personalized fitness experiences. This evolution is designed to capitalize on the growing consumer focus on holistic health solutions, positioning the company to capture a broader audience. The launch of the Strength+ app and PTON’s increased emphasis on meditation and sleep programs further demonstrate its commitment to diversifying its product suite and enhancing member engagement. These initiatives are expected to drive long-term engagement and revenue growth as more consumers prioritize overall well-being.
At the same time, Peloton’s integration of Precor into its operations strengthens its position in the commercial fitness market, with Precor’s established footprint across 80,000 locations in 60 countries providing significant opportunities for expanding the company’s B2B business. With incremental revenues from commercial partnerships in gyms and hotels, Peloton is well-positioned to scale its reach and market presence. On the financial front, the company’s focus on improving free cash flow, which saw $324 million generated in fiscal 2025, and its 43% reduction in net debt enhance its balance sheet, providing the flexibility to reinvest in growth initiatives. Peloton’s restructuring efforts, aimed at delivering $100 million in cost savings, further bolster its ability to drive profitability and execute on its long-term strategic goals. With a strong balance sheet and strategic initiatives in place, the company is well-positioned to sustain growth and create long-term value for its shareholders.
Conclusion
Peloton is making significant strides in its transformation into a broader wellness platform, with strategic moves like expanding its strength training and mental well-being offerings and increasing its commercial fitness presence. While the company faces typical seasonal challenges in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, including a dip in hardware sales and some pressure on subscriptions, its long-term growth potential remains strong. Innovations like the Strength+ app and its emphasis on personalized coaching position Peloton to deepen engagement and capture a larger share of the growing wellness market.
The stock is currently trading at a discounted valuation, with ongoing restructuring efforts aimed at achieving cost savings and a healthier balance sheet. As a result, Peloton is better positioned for long-term profitability and growth. The company’s expansion into the commercial sector, coupled with its efforts to diversify revenue streams, provides a solid foundation for sustained growth. Given the current market conditions and the potential upside from its transformation, we believe Peloton stock presents an attractive buying opportunity.
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Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold PTON Stock Before Q1 Earnings Release?
Key Takeaways
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Nov. 6, 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PTON’s fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be at breakeven, flat year over year. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days.
PTON Earnings Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter revenues is pegged at $541.1 million, indicating a decline of 7.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Peloton has a modest earnings surprise history in the trailing four quarters. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged twice, the average surprise being 36.3%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 171.4%.
PTON Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q1 Earnings Whispers for PTON Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Peloton this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat on earnings. But that's not the case here.
PTON’s Earnings ESP: Peloton has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Peloton’s Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Influence Peloton’s Q1 Results
Peloton’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance is expected to have been influenced by a combination of seasonal challenges and strategic investments aimed at driving longer-term growth. In particular, the company is likely to have faced headwinds from a typical fiscal first-quarter slowdown in hardware sales and subscription growth, alongside a strategic focus on cost optimization and innovation to counter these challenges.
One of the key factors affecting Peloton's performance in the fiscal first quarter is the seasonal decline in hardware sales. Historically, the first quarter of the fiscal year sees lower equipment sales as the company prepares for the holiday season, which tends to generate higher sales volumes in subsequent quarters. This seasonal dip in hardware revenues is expected to have weighed on Peloton’s overall revenues during the period, contributing to an anticipated year-over-year revenue decline of approximately 9%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues from connected fitness products is pegged at $139 million compared with $159.6 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Subscription revenues are projected at $402.5 million compared with $426.3 million reported in the year-ago quarter.
Additionally, Peloton is likely to have experienced pressure in its subscription segment during the first quarter. With a slight uptick in churn and fewer new member sign-ups due to the seasonal nature of fitness subscriptions, Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions are expected to be between $2.72 million and $2.73 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6% at the midpoint.
The company expects fiscal first quarter adjusted EBITDA to fall between $90 million and $100 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of $21 million (or 18%, at the midpoint) largely due to the anticipated revenue decline.
However, several positive fundamentals are expected to have partly offset these challenges. Peloton’s cost-saving initiatives — including its restructuring plan aimed at achieving $100 million in savings by the end of fiscal 2026 — are likely to have made a meaningful impact on the company’s bottom line. These savings, achieved through workforce optimization, reduced indirect spending, and lower stock-based compensation, are expected to have aided the bottom line in the fiscal first quarter.
Furthermore, Peloton’s strategic focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings is expected to have helped mitigate some of the declines in hardware and subscriptions. The company has made significant strides in enhancing its wellness offerings, such as the introduction of strength training, mental well-being programs and improved personalization through AI-driven features. These innovations are designed to deepen engagement with existing members and potentially boost average revenue per member.
Increased focus on commercial business is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal first quarter. The integration of Precor into Peloton’s operations, along with increasing partnerships in the gym and hotel sectors, is expected to have aided its performance, helping to diversify revenue streams beyond consumer-facing hardware and subscriptions.
PTON Stock Price Performance & Valuation
Peloton shares have gained 2.2% in the past three months against the industry’s fall of 9.6%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Brunswick Corporation (BC - Free Report) shares have gained 11.3%, while Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT - Free Report) and Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF - Free Report) have declined 15.9% and 5%, respectively.
PTON Three-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
PTON stock is currently trading at a discount. It is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.19, well below the industry average of 2.09. Then again, other industry players, such as Brunswick, Planet Fitness and Acushnet Holdings have P/S ratios of 0.78, 5.49 and 1.76, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Considerations for PTON Stock
Peloton’s ongoing transformation is supported by strong demand trends in its expanding wellness offerings, which include strength training, mental well-being and personalized fitness experiences. This evolution is designed to capitalize on the growing consumer focus on holistic health solutions, positioning the company to capture a broader audience. The launch of the Strength+ app and PTON’s increased emphasis on meditation and sleep programs further demonstrate its commitment to diversifying its product suite and enhancing member engagement. These initiatives are expected to drive long-term engagement and revenue growth as more consumers prioritize overall well-being.
At the same time, Peloton’s integration of Precor into its operations strengthens its position in the commercial fitness market, with Precor’s established footprint across 80,000 locations in 60 countries providing significant opportunities for expanding the company’s B2B business. With incremental revenues from commercial partnerships in gyms and hotels, Peloton is well-positioned to scale its reach and market presence. On the financial front, the company’s focus on improving free cash flow, which saw $324 million generated in fiscal 2025, and its 43% reduction in net debt enhance its balance sheet, providing the flexibility to reinvest in growth initiatives. Peloton’s restructuring efforts, aimed at delivering $100 million in cost savings, further bolster its ability to drive profitability and execute on its long-term strategic goals. With a strong balance sheet and strategic initiatives in place, the company is well-positioned to sustain growth and create long-term value for its shareholders.
Conclusion
Peloton is making significant strides in its transformation into a broader wellness platform, with strategic moves like expanding its strength training and mental well-being offerings and increasing its commercial fitness presence. While the company faces typical seasonal challenges in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, including a dip in hardware sales and some pressure on subscriptions, its long-term growth potential remains strong. Innovations like the Strength+ app and its emphasis on personalized coaching position Peloton to deepen engagement and capture a larger share of the growing wellness market.
The stock is currently trading at a discounted valuation, with ongoing restructuring efforts aimed at achieving cost savings and a healthier balance sheet. As a result, Peloton is better positioned for long-term profitability and growth. The company’s expansion into the commercial sector, coupled with its efforts to diversify revenue streams, provides a solid foundation for sustained growth. Given the current market conditions and the potential upside from its transformation, we believe Peloton stock presents an attractive buying opportunity.