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CRCL Pre-Q3 Earnings Analysis: Should You Hold or Fold the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Circle will report Q3 2025 results on Nov. 12, with earnings estimates up to 17 cents per share.
  • USDC circulation rose to $65.2B, with transactions nearing $6T amid surging institutional demand.
  • New offerings like Circle Gateway and Arc blockchain are expanding the firm's global payments reach.

Circle Internet Group, Inc. ((CRCL - Free Report) ) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 12.

Circle offers USD Coin (USDC), which is redeemable on a one-for-one basis for U.S. dollars. USDC, along with EURO Coin (EURC), are digital currency tokens issued natively on blockchain networks and backed by reserves consisting of highly liquid, price-stable cash and cash equivalents. Both USDC and EURC are used for payments, settlements, and as a digital dollar store of value.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $708.92 million. The consensus mark for earnings is currently pegged at 17 cents per share, revised upward by 5 cents over the past 30 days.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In the last reported results for the second quarter of 2025, Circle posted adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 29 cents.

Earnings Whispers for Circle

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Circle this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the exact case here.

Circle has an Earnings ESP of +14.16% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note for CRCL’s Q3 Earnings

Circle's third-quarter 2025 results are likely to benefit from steady growth in its main stablecoin, USDC. The company ended its second quarter with $61.3 billion USDC in circulation, which increased to $65.2 billion as of Aug. 10, 2025. Onchain USDC transaction volume reached almost $6 trillion in the second quarter, which was 5.4 times higher than last year. Activity picked up further in July with $2.4 trillion in transactions. The number of meaningful wallets, or wallets holding more than $10 of USDC, rose 68% year over year.

Circle is also seeing more usage from institutional customers. More exchanges, trading firms, wallets and banks are integrating Circle’s wallet and liquidity tools. USDC held within Circle’s own platform grew 10 times compared to last year and made up 10% of total USDC circulation during the second quarter, as USDC adoption continues to expand globally.

New products launched over the past year are expected to have driven growth in the to-be-reported quarter. The Circle Payments Network is now active in Hong Kong, Brazil, Nigeria and Mexico, and more than 100 financial institutions are interested in joining, reflecting growing usage. Additionally, the company also launched Circle Gateway in July 2025, which helps users move USDC across different blockchains more easily. Circle also announced Arc, a new Layer-1 blockchain built for payments, FX and other financial use cases.

The above-mentioned factors are likely to have contributed positively to Circe’s progress in the to-be-reported quarter. Overall, strong USDC activity, aided by more platform usage, along with new product adoption, is likely to have supported Circle’s performance in the third quarter.

CRCL Price Performance & Stock Valuation

Circle shares have rallied 20.2% since it started trading on the stock exchange on June 5, 2025, outperforming the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry’s growth of 1.8%.

During the same time frame, Circle has outperformed Coinbase Global ((COIN - Free Report) ) and PayPal ((PYPL - Free Report) ), and Fiserv ((FI - Free Report) ). Shares of Coinbase have gained 15.4%, while PayPal and Fiserv have plunged 8.9% and 62.5%, respectively.

CRCL Price Return Performance

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Circle is currently trading at a higher price-to-sales (P/S) multiple compared with the industry. The stock’s forward 12-month P/S ratio sits at 8.18X, significantly higher than the industry’s forward 12-month P/S ratio of 3.25X.

CRCL Forward 12-Month P/S Ratio

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Circle stock also trades at a higher P/S multiple compared with its peers, including PayPal and Fiserv. At present, PayPal and Fiserv have P/S multiples of 1.83X and 1.67X, respectively.

Investment Consideration for CRCL

Improving regulatory environment and growing demand for stablecoins like USDC bode well for the company’s long-term prospects. Moreover, the company's expanding partner base is expected to boost top-line growth in the upcoming quarters.

In the second quarter of 2025, Circle expanded relationships with major exchanges, such as Binance and OKX, which are increasing the usage of USDC and Circle’s wallet technology on large trading platforms. Moreover, Circle has also signed agreements with large payment infrastructure companies, such as FIS, Corpay and Matera, which serve tens of thousands of banks, enabling adoption of stablecoin technology into the traditional financial system.

However, the company faces stiff competition from established companies, including Coinbase, PayPal and Fiserv. Fiserv and the Bank of North Dakota have collaborated to launch “Roughrider Coin,” fully backed by U.S. dollars and built on the Fiserv digital asset platform. Coinbase acquired Deribit, the world’s top crypto options exchange, making Coinbase the most complete global crypto derivatives platform. PayPal launched “Pay with Crypto,” a service that lets U.S. merchants accept crypto payments with near-instant settlement, helping businesses reach global customers more easily.

Conclusion: Hold Circle Stock for Now

Circle’s focus on developing USDC-based payment infrastructure, along with its growing partnerships with tech giants and financial institutions, is expected to boost growth prospects over the long term.

However, the company faces stiff competition from industry giants and well-established players, which could limit its market share over time. Additionally, Circle’s stretched valuation is also a concern. These factors could affect Circle’s market positioning, despite its technological edge.

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