Rigetti Computing (RGTI Quick QuoteRGTI - Free Report) is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 10, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share and revenues is pegged at 5 cents and $2.39 million, respectively.

The earnings estimate, which has remained stable over the past 60 days, indicates 37.5% growth year over year. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year modest growth of 0.4%.

The consensus mark for 2025 revenues is pegged at $8.7 million, implying a decline of 19.7% year over year, and the same for loss per share is pinned at 9 cents, suggesting year-over-year growth of 75%. RGTI surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate once, missed once, and met expectations twice in the trailing four quarters, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 10.8%.

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Q3 Earnings Whispers for Rigetti

Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has higher chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: RGTI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note Ahead of RGTI’s Q3 Results

Rigetti Computing’s third-quarter 2025 earnings performance is likely to remain shaped by continued U.S. public-sector funding uncertainty, with the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative and pending congressional reauthorization keeping federal demand uneven. While bipartisan support suggests that approval is only a matter of time, near-term national lab and agency spending may stay muted. Still, early project execution or new awards could provide a modest revenue lift, and management’s close engagement with DOE and DoD stakeholders is likely to help sustain pipeline momentum as funding decisions move forward.

RGTI’s third-quarter results are likely to reflect early benefits from the rollout of Cepheus-1-36Q, the industry’s largest multichip quantum system. Its strong technical gains, including 99.5 percent median two-qubit gate fidelity and a meaningful step-down in error rates, combined with access through Rigetti QCS and expected near-term availability on Azure, could encourage increased experimentation among commercial and research customers. This may translate into incremental platform activity during the quarter. With more than $570 million in cash and no debt, Rigetti is positioned to continue scaling system development, while a measured expense outlook suggests stable margin execution.

International and defense-linked programs are likely to emerge as additional Q3 catalysts. Progress under U.K. initiatives, including system upgrades and optical-interconnect development, continues to advance Rigetti’s modular roadmap. At the same time, DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is expected to narrow Phase 2 candidates before year-end, offering potential upside for Rigetti’s chiplet-based leadership to secure advancement. Together, these initiatives may improve late-2025 revenue visibility. Overall, the third quarter is likely to remain pressured by federal-timing dynamics, but continued platform adoption, disciplined spending and strengthening government and commercial engagement are likely to position Rigetti favorably into 2026.

RGTI Price Performance & Valuation

On a year-to-date basis, shares of RGTI, IonQ (IONQ Quick QuoteIONQ - Free Report) and D-WAVE QUANTUM (QBTS Quick QuoteQBTS - Free Report) have gained 125.1%, 37.4% and 237.9%, respectively. The broader Internet Software industry has advanced 10.2% over the same period.

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In terms of valuation, RGTI trades at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 20.13, higher than IonQ (16.93) and D-Wave Quantum (13.99). Despite IONQ and QBTS offering lower multiples, RGTI’s premium reflects stronger growth expectations.

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Long-Term Visibility for RGTI

Rigetti’s recent second-quarter 2025 transcript underscores a focused trajectory toward quantum-scale systems. Management reiterated the goal of delivering a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with approximately 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity before the end of 2025, citing its recent rollout of a multi-chip 36-qubit system as a stepping-stone. They further project being “3 to 4 years away” from an approximately 1,000-qubit system at approximately 99.9% fidelity with less than 50 ns gate speeds, when quantum advantage could be achieved. While this roadmap offers long-term visibility as chiplet-based scaling and fidelity improvements progress, Rigetti builds toward commercially meaningful quantum workloads. The investors should focus on fidelity metrics, qubit counts, system deliveries and commercial uptake rather than only near-term revenues.

On the systems front, Rigetti’s on-premises offering, the Novera QPU, is showing encouraging signs of market adoption. A recent purchase-order announcement revealed $5.7 million in orders for two upgradeable 9-qubit Novera systems, to be delivered in the first half of 2026: one to a major Asian tech manufacturer and one to a U.S. startup focused on hardware/error-correction research.

While not yet a large revenue driver, these sales validate demand for quantum systems beyond government labs, moving into commercial R&D and private sector use. Over the long term, as qubit counts and fidelity improve, the Novera line could transition from niche R&D installations to broader enterprise adoption, offering a scalable hardware revenue stream alongside the cloud business. The visibility of upgradeability and commercial use-cases helps strengthen the hardware growth narrative.

Rigetti is also leveraging major partnerships to bolster its long-term position. A notable example is the strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc., announced in February 2025, which commits more than US $100 million from each partner over five years and includes Quanta’s US $35 million investment in Rigetti. This partnership supports manufacturing scale, chip development and system commercialization. Concurrently, a recent integration of Novera with NVIDIA Corporation’s DGX Quantum platform underscores Rigetti’s push into hybrid quantum-classical workflows and system-level compatibility. These collaborations suggest Rigetti is not just building chips, but building an ecosystem, one that could accelerate time-to-market and broaden the addressable quantum surface. For long-term investors, this means Rigetti’s success is increasingly tied to and supported by major players in manufacturing and cloud infrastructure.

Should You Buy Rigetti Stock Ahead of Q3 Results?

Rigetti’s third-quarter results are likely to reinforce steady progress on its chiplet-based roadmap rather than mark a major financial turning point, supporting a hold view. The company continues to push ahead with its next milestone, a 100+-qubit system with approximately 99.5% fidelity by year-end, and has begun broadening access to its latest Cepheus-1-36Q platform through Rigetti QCS and, soon, Microsoft Azure. These steps strengthen long-term positioning, but near-term revenue will likely remain uneven as U.S. public-sector funding works through reauthorization and commercial use cases scale gradually.

Rigetti’s balance sheet provides a meaningful cushion to continue investing through this development phase, while progress under U.K. NQCC initiatives and the potential move to Phase 2 of DARPA’s benchmarking effort offer incremental upside. Still, visibility into larger, repeatable commercial demand is limited, suggesting current shareholders may remain patient, while prospective investors may prefer to wait for clearer momentum on contract wins and revenue scaling before initiating positions.