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Northern Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss, Both Down Y/Y

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Key Takeaways

  • NOG generated $118.9 million in free cash flow and ended Q3 with $31.6 million in cash.
  • The company finalized 22 deals, adding 2,500 net acres and 5.8 net wells during the quarter.
  • The board declared a 45-cent cash dividend payable Jan. 30 to shareholders of record Dec. 30.

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.03, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. The outperformance reflects strong production, with total output beating the consensus mark by 0.7%. However, the bottom line declined from the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.40 due to weaker year-over-year oil prices and a 113% increase in operating expenses.

This oil and natural gas company’s quarterly sales of $482.2 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $506 million. Moreover, the top line decreased from the year-ago figure of $513.5 million. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas sales during this quarter.

In November, NOG's board of directors declared a cash dividend of 45 cents per share. The dividend will be distributed on Jan. 30, 2026, to its shareholders on record as of the close of business on Dec. 30, 2025.

Across the first nine months of 2025, the company returned $179.7 million to its investors, including $129.7 million in dividends and $50 million through common stock repurchases. No buybacks took place during the third quarter.

The company finalized 22 ground-game deals, securing more than 2,500 net acres and 5.8 net wells.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Quote

NOG’s Production Details

The third-quarter production increased 8% year over year to 131,054 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). Additionally, the figure slightly beat our estimate of 131,000 Boe/d.

While oil volume totaled 72,348 Boe/d (up 2% year over year), natural gas (and natural gas liquids) amounted to 352,250 thousand cubic feet per day (up 15%). Our model estimate for oil volume and natural gas production was pegged at 72,200 Boe/d and 352,800 cubic feet per day, respectively.

The average sales price for crude was $61.08 per barrel, indicating a 15% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s level of $71.82. Moreover, the figure beat our expectation of $60.80 per barrel.

The average realized natural gas price was $2.52 per thousand cubic feet compared with $1.60 in the year-earlier period. Our model estimate for the same was pinned at $2.93 per thousand cubic feet.

NOG’s Costs & Expenses

Total operating expenses in the quarter rose to $682.4 million from $319.7 million in the year-ago period. This was mainly on account of a surge in production expenses, production taxes, general and administrative expenses, depletion, depreciation, amortization and accretion, impairment of oil and gas assets and other expenses. Moreover, the metric exceeded our estimate of $353.8 million.

Capital Expenditures of NOG

The company reported capital expenditures of $272 million for the third quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and other unplanned items. Of this total, $212.2 million was dedicated to drilling and completion activities on organic assets, while $59.8 million was allocated to Ground Game efforts, including associated development costs.

The company reported that 49% of its third-quarter capital expenditures were directed to the Permian Basin, while the Williston represented 25%, the Appalachian 21% and the Uinta 5%.

NOG’s Financial Position

The company’s free cash flow for the quarter totaled $118.9 million.

As of Sept. 30, Northern had $31.6 million in cash and cash equivalents. The company had a long-term debt of $2.2 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 51.1%.

NOG’s Guidance

The company anticipates a slightly stronger production outlook for 2025, raising its total production range from 130,000-133,000 Boe/d to 132,500-134,000 Boe/d. Northern also expects oil production to increase at the low end, moving from the earlier 74,000-76,000 barrels per day (Bbl/d) to 75,000-76,500 Bbl/d, indicating improved well performance.

On the spending side, the company expects capital expenditures to tighten from $950 million to $1.025 billion, narrower than the prior estimate of $925 million to $1.05 billion, indicating a more focused allocation plan.

The company anticipates slightly lower well activity, reducing its expectation for net oil wells turned in line from 73-76 to 71-74, and adjusting total net wells turned in line from 83-85 to 80-83, while keeping net wells spud unchanged at 75-85.

On the cost front, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company expects production expenses to move up from $9.25-$9.60 per Boe to $9.40-$9.75 per Boe, while production taxes are now estimated at 7-8.%, slightly narrower than the earlier 7.5-8.5%. At the same time, the company continues to anticipate stable trends for crude oil differential, natural gas realizations, depreciation, depletion and amortization and general and administrative costs, which remain unchanged from prior guidance.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Important Earnings at a Glance

While we have discussed NOG’s third-quarter results in detail, let us take a look at three other key reports in this space.

Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT - Free Report) , a leading pressure pumping and oilfield services firm headquartered in Denver, posted a third-quarter 2025 adjusted net loss of 6 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 1 cent. Moreover, the bottom line decreased sharply from the year-ago quarter’s profit of 45 cents. The company's underperformance can be attributed to macroeconomic headwinds accompanied by a slowdown in the industry’s frac activity and market pricing pressure.

As of Sept. 30, Liberty Energy had approximately $13.4 million in cash and cash equivalents. The pressure pumper’s long-term debt of $253 million represented a debt-to-capitalization of 10.9%.

San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) , a leading independent refiner and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products, reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.66 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.95. The bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s level of $1.16. Better-than-expected quarterly results can be primarily attributed to an increase in refining margins, higher ethanol margins and lower total cost of sales.

The company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.8 billion at the end of the third quarter. As of Sept. 30, 2025, it had a total debt of $8.4 billion and finance-lease obligations of $2.2 billion.

Houston-based Halliburton Company (HAL - Free Report) , one of the world’s largest oilfield services providers specializing in drilling and well completions, posted third-quarter 2025 adjusted net income per share of 58 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents. The outperformance primarily reflects successful cost reduction initiatives. However, the bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of 73 cents due to softer activity in North America.

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had approximately $2 billion in cash/cash equivalents and $7.2 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 41.1.

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