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Can Equities Stabilize After the Government Reopens?
Government Reopen Brings Some Certainty to Markets
Last night, President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the most extended government shutdown in US history (43 days). The full economic impact of the government shutdown may be unrealized for some time, and government-sourced economic numbers like CPI and jobs data are likely to be delayed or completely skipped for October.
Nevertheless, investors must realize that markets love certainty, and the government reopening puts an end to uncertainty related to this matter for now. Though some estimates suggest that the government shutdown could adversely impact quarterly GDP by ~2%, historical data suggest that markets are forward-looking and are likely to look past the negative impact of the shutdown once the dust settles.
Looking at the past 40 years of market data (via @subutrade), the major indices tend to stumble in the first few days after a shutdown ends. However, two weeks later, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 Index are higher on average 75% of the time.
Equity Indexes Fill Gaps
In technical analysis, a "gap" refers to an opening on a chart where no trading occurred. Price gaps most often happen when indexes or stocks move overnight. Market technicians watch price gap areas because they reveal where the balance of supply and demand lies, and a vast majority of the time, they are retested during regular trading hours where higher volume exists.
Thursday, the major indices filled their daily gaps from Monday (when the initial news of a potential end to the government shutdown dropped).
Seasonality and Window Dressing Loom
Seasonality in the stock market is the study of recurring price patterns and trends at certain times of the year. From a seasonal perspective, November tends to be one of the strongest months of the year for stocks, especially small caps. Over the past 15 years, the Russell 2000 Index ETF was higher 13 times. Meanwhile, IWM averages a 4% gain in November over that period – its best month by far. Additionally, the fact that many professional money managers are underperforming the market may lead to a classic "window dressing" performance chase into year-end.
Markets Need AI Stocks to Stabilize
A bull market without leadership is unsustainable. Recently, there has been some market rotation. Money has come out of AI leaders such as CoreWeave, Astera Labs and Nebius. Meanwhile, there has been some rotation into stocks in other industries. For instance, Expand Energy is up more than 10% over the past two weeks while biotech giant Eli Lilly works on its fourth consecutive green week.
Though some market rotation is positive, bulls will want to see the AI trade reassert itself. Nvidia, the undisputed AI leader, is the most crucial stock to watch. Unlike the previously mentioned stocks, NVDA has held up well during the market turmoil. Currently, NVDA shares are testing a critical level – the confluence of a breakout retest and the rising 50-day moving average.
Bottom Line
As traders position for year-end, the government shutdown is over, major market indices are filling gaps, and seasonal momentum looms.
Free: Instant Access to Zacks' Market-Crushing Strategies
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: IWM, CoreWeave, Astera Labs, Nebius, Expand Energy, Eli Lilly and Nvidia
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 14, 2025– Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM - Free Report) , CoreWeave (CRWV - Free Report) , Astera Labs (ALAB - Free Report) , Nebius (NBIS - Free Report) , Expand Energy (EXE - Free Report) , Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) .
Can Equities Stabilize After the Government Reopens?
Government Reopen Brings Some Certainty to Markets
Last night, President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the most extended government shutdown in US history (43 days). The full economic impact of the government shutdown may be unrealized for some time, and government-sourced economic numbers like CPI and jobs data are likely to be delayed or completely skipped for October.
Nevertheless, investors must realize that markets love certainty, and the government reopening puts an end to uncertainty related to this matter for now. Though some estimates suggest that the government shutdown could adversely impact quarterly GDP by ~2%, historical data suggest that markets are forward-looking and are likely to look past the negative impact of the shutdown once the dust settles.
Looking at the past 40 years of market data (via @subutrade), the major indices tend to stumble in the first few days after a shutdown ends. However, two weeks later, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 Index are higher on average 75% of the time.
Equity Indexes Fill Gaps
In technical analysis, a "gap" refers to an opening on a chart where no trading occurred. Price gaps most often happen when indexes or stocks move overnight. Market technicians watch price gap areas because they reveal where the balance of supply and demand lies, and a vast majority of the time, they are retested during regular trading hours where higher volume exists.
Thursday, the major indices filled their daily gaps from Monday (when the initial news of a potential end to the government shutdown dropped).
Seasonality and Window Dressing Loom
Seasonality in the stock market is the study of recurring price patterns and trends at certain times of the year. From a seasonal perspective, November tends to be one of the strongest months of the year for stocks, especially small caps. Over the past 15 years, the Russell 2000 Index ETF was higher 13 times. Meanwhile, IWM averages a 4% gain in November over that period – its best month by far. Additionally, the fact that many professional money managers are underperforming the market may lead to a classic "window dressing" performance chase into year-end.
Markets Need AI Stocks to Stabilize
A bull market without leadership is unsustainable. Recently, there has been some market rotation. Money has come out of AI leaders such as CoreWeave, Astera Labs and Nebius. Meanwhile, there has been some rotation into stocks in other industries. For instance, Expand Energy is up more than 10% over the past two weeks while biotech giant Eli Lilly works on its fourth consecutive green week.
Though some market rotation is positive, bulls will want to see the AI trade reassert itself. Nvidia, the undisputed AI leader, is the most crucial stock to watch. Unlike the previously mentioned stocks, NVDA has held up well during the market turmoil. Currently, NVDA shares are testing a critical level – the confluence of a breakout retest and the rising 50-day moving average.
Bottom Line
As traders position for year-end, the government shutdown is over, major market indices are filling gaps, and seasonal momentum looms.
Free: Instant Access to Zacks' Market-Crushing Strategies
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached.
Get all the details here >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.