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United (UAL) Down 1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is United due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for United Airlines Holdings Inc before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Earnings Beat in Q3
UAL reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but revenues missed the same.
UAL's third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.78 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64 but declined 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies above the guided range of $2.25 and $2.75.
Operating revenues of $15.2 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.3 billion but increased 2.6% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.7% of the top line) increased 1.9% year over year to $13.8 billion. UAL flights transported 48,382 passengers in the third quarter, up 6.2% year over year.
Cargo revenues grew 3.2% year over year to $431 million. Revenues from other sources rose 13.2% year over year to $979 million.
UAL’s diverse revenue sources contributed to its third-quarter results. These include premium cabin revenues, which went up 6% year over year, revenue from Basic Economy (up 4% year over year), cargo revenues (up 3%) and loyalty revenues (up 9%). This steady positive pattern has continued in the fourth quarter, and UAL anticipates the fourth quarter of 2025 to have the highest total operating revenue for a single quarter in company history.
Other Details of UAL’s Q3 Earnings Report
Below, we present all comparisons (in % terms) with the third quarter of 2024 figures unless otherwise stated.
Airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, grew 6.1%. Capacity, measured in available seat miles, expanded 7.2%. Although traffic improved year over year, it failed to outpace capacity expansion. As a result, the consolidated load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) declined 0.7 points on a year-over-year basis to 83.3%.
Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile (a key measure of unit revenues) inched down 5% year over year. Total revenue per available seat mile decreased 4.3% year over year. The average yield per revenue passenger mile fell 4% year over year to 18.73 cents. The average aircraft fuel price per gallon fell 5.1% year over year to $2.43. Fuel gallons consumed were up 5.4% year over year.
Operating expenses (on a reported basis) increased 4.2% year over year to $13.8 billion. Consolidated unit cost or cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, third-party business expenses, profit-sharing and special charges, inched down 0.9% year over year to 12.15 cents.
UAL exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $6.73 billion compared with $9.35 billion at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities were $20.8 billion, flat sequentially.
UAL repurchased $19 million of shares in the third quarter of 2025. UAL generated $1.21 billion of free cash flow in the September quarter.
UAL’s Outlook
For fourth-quarter 2025, UAL anticipates adjusted EPS between $3.00 and $3.50.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 23.44% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, United has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, United has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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United (UAL) Down 1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is United due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for United Airlines Holdings Inc before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Earnings Beat in Q3
UAL reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but revenues missed the same.
UAL's third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.78 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64 but declined 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies above the guided range of $2.25 and $2.75.
Operating revenues of $15.2 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.3 billion but increased 2.6% year over year. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 90.7% of the top line) increased 1.9% year over year to $13.8 billion. UAL flights transported 48,382 passengers in the third quarter, up 6.2% year over year.
Cargo revenues grew 3.2% year over year to $431 million. Revenues from other sources rose 13.2% year over year to $979 million.
UAL’s diverse revenue sources contributed to its third-quarter results. These include premium cabin revenues, which went up 6% year over year, revenue from Basic Economy (up 4% year over year), cargo revenues (up 3%) and loyalty revenues (up 9%). This steady positive pattern has continued in the fourth quarter, and UAL anticipates the fourth quarter of 2025 to have the highest total operating revenue for a single quarter in company history.
Other Details of UAL’s Q3 Earnings Report
Below, we present all comparisons (in % terms) with the third quarter of 2024 figures unless otherwise stated.
Airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, grew 6.1%. Capacity, measured in available seat miles, expanded 7.2%. Although traffic improved year over year, it failed to outpace capacity expansion. As a result, the consolidated load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) declined 0.7 points on a year-over-year basis to 83.3%.
Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile (a key measure of unit revenues) inched down 5% year over year. Total revenue per available seat mile decreased 4.3% year over year. The average yield per revenue passenger mile fell 4% year over year to 18.73 cents. The average aircraft fuel price per gallon fell 5.1% year over year to $2.43. Fuel gallons consumed were up 5.4% year over year.
Operating expenses (on a reported basis) increased 4.2% year over year to $13.8 billion. Consolidated unit cost or cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, third-party business expenses, profit-sharing and special charges, inched down 0.9% year over year to 12.15 cents.
UAL exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $6.73 billion compared with $9.35 billion at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities were $20.8 billion, flat sequentially.
UAL repurchased $19 million of shares in the third quarter of 2025. UAL generated $1.21 billion of free cash flow in the September quarter.
UAL’s Outlook
For fourth-quarter 2025, UAL anticipates adjusted EPS between $3.00 and $3.50.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted 23.44% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, United has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, United has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.