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Growth or Stability? A 2025 Investment Face-Off Between LLY and JNJ
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Key Takeaways
LLY's GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound now drive over half its revenue and fuel rapid growth.
J&J expects faster 2026 growth from key Innovative Medicine products and improving MedTech.
LLY's expanding pipeline, acquisitions and new indications support continued top-line gains.
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) are major U.S. healthcare companies within the pharmaceutical/biotech space.
Both companies have a strong presence in oncology, immunology and neuroscience areas. J&J also has drugs for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, pulmonary hypertension and infectious diseases, along with a strong presence in the medical devices segment. Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health, with GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound being the key to its success story.
Both companies are generating strong revenues and profits, and look well-positioned for further growth. But which one is a better investment option today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has seen tremendous success with its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for only around three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for more than 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Launch of Mounjaro and Zepbound in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production in the United States have led to strong sales growth in 2025. Both drugs are expected to continue to see strong demand in 2026.
Regulatory approvals for new indications and improved production capacity are expected to boost sales further.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for several other new drugs over the past couple of years, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla. These newly approved drugs are also contributing to Lilly’s revenue growth.
Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2026.
Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist and some mid-stage candidates. Lilly has announced positive data across six studies on orforglipron in obesity and type II diabetes. An oral pill like orforglipron has the potential to be a more convenient alternative to injectable treatments like Zepbound and rival Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) Wegovy. Lilly plans to file regulatory applications for orforglipron in obesity later this year, setting up the timeline for a potential launch next year.
LLY is also working to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced several M&A deals. It acquired Verve Therapeutics to add gene therapies for heart disease to its pipeline. Lilly has also entered into agreements to acquire Scorpion Therapeutics’ oncology drug and SiteOne Therapeutics’ non-opioid pain candidate.
Last week, Lilly announced a definitive agreement to acquire Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM - Free Report) , which will add the latter’s lead candidate, Ixo-vec, an intravitreal single-administration gene therapy being developed in phase III to treat vision loss associated with wet age-related macular degeneration. Ixo-vec has the potential to transform chronic eye care into a one-time treatment.
Also, earlier this month, President Trump announced deals with Lilly and NVO to cut prices of their respective GLP-1 therapies for obesity, Zepbound and Wegovy, in exchange for Medicare access for the drugs and a three-year exemption from tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is a key headwind.
Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity.
Several other companies, like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, are also making rapid progress in the development of more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.
The Case for J&J
J&J’s biggest strength is its diversified business model, as it has not just pharmaceuticals, but also medical devices, which helps it to withstand economic cycles more effectively. It operates through more than 275 subsidiaries and is less reliant on a single blockbuster drug.
J&J’s Innovative Medicine unit is showing a growth trend. The segment’s sales rose 3.4% in the first nine months of 2025 on an organic basis despite the LOE of Stelara and the negative impact of the Part D redesign.
In 2026, J&J expects accelerated growth in the Innovative Medicine segment to be driven by its key products, such as Darzalex, Tremfya, Spravato and Erleada, as well as new drugs like Carvykti, Tecvayli and Talvey, and recently launched products, including Tremfya in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), Rybrevant plus Lazcluze in non-small cell lung cancer and the newly approved drug, Inlexzo in bladder cancer.
J&J’s MedTech business has improved in the past two quarters, driven by the acquired cardiovascular businesses, Abiomed and Shockwave, as well as Surgical Vision and wound closure in Surgery. Improvements in J&J’s electrophysiology business also drove the growth.
Along with its third-quarter earnings release, J&J announced its intention to separate its Orthopaedics franchise in the MedTech segment into a standalone orthopedics-focused company, called DePuy Synthes.
The decision aligns with J&J’s efforts to shift its MedTech portfolio to high-innovation, high-growth markets like cardiovascular and robotic surgery. J&J expects that the separation will improve its MedTech unit’s growth and margins, as the Orthopaedics franchise has been a slow-growth business for J&J.
In 2026, J&J expects accelerated growth in both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
J&J has rapidly advanced its pipeline this year, attaining significant clinical and regulatory milestones that will help drive growth through the back half of the decade. This year, it gained approval for new products like Inlexzoh/TAR-200, a first-of-its-kind drug-releasing system, for treating high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer and Imaavy (nipocalimab) for treating generalized myasthenia gravis. J&J believes that nipocalimab has a pipeline-in-a-product potential. Regulatory applications were recently filed for another key candidate, icotrokinra, for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. J&J believes that icotrokinra has the potential to revolutionize the treatment of plaque psoriasis with a once-a-day pill.
J&J believes 10 of its new products/pipeline candidates in the Innovative Medicine segment have the potential to deliver peak sales of $5 billion, including Talvey, Tecvayli, Imaavy, newly acquired Caplyta, Inlexzo, Rybrevant, plus Lazcluze and icotrokinra.
However, the Stelara patent cliff, the impact of Part D redesign and slowing sales in China in the MedTech segment and the pending talc lawsuits are significant headwinds.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & JNJ?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 41.6% and 82.4%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have risen over the past 30 days.
LLY Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J&J’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 5.5% and 5.0%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has risen from $10.86 per share to $10.87, while that for 2026 has jumped from $11.46 to $11.48 over the past 30 days.
JNJ Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & JNJ
Year to date, LLY’s stock has surged 32.8% and J&J’s stock has risen 35.4%. The industry has jumped 13.9% in the said time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
J&J looks more attractive than Lilly from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Lilly’s shares currently trade at 33.12 forward earnings, significantly higher than 16.72 for the industry. However, LLY’s stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.54. J&J’s shares currently trade at 17.17 forward earnings, higher than the industry as well as the stock’s 5-year mean of 15.65.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
J&J’s dividend yield is 2.7%, while Lilly’s is around 0.6%.
Both have seen their stocks and estimates rise this year.
J&J is a good stock for investors who are looking for stability and low risk in their investments, as it has shown steady revenue and EPS growth for years. J&J also boasts steady cash flows and has consistently increased its dividends for 63 consecutive years.
However, Lilly is a better pick for growth-oriented investors with more upside expectations than J&J. Despite its expensive valuation, Lilly is a great stock to have in one’s portfolio, considering its product and pipeline portfolio in high-growth therapeutic areas like obesity, robust growth prospects and bullish analyst sentiment.
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Growth or Stability? A 2025 Investment Face-Off Between LLY and JNJ
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) are major U.S. healthcare companies within the pharmaceutical/biotech space.
Both companies have a strong presence in oncology, immunology and neuroscience areas. J&J also has drugs for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, pulmonary hypertension and infectious diseases, along with a strong presence in the medical devices segment. Lilly boasts a leading presence in cardiometabolic health, with GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound being the key to its success story.
Both companies are generating strong revenues and profits, and look well-positioned for further growth. But which one is a better investment option today? Let’s take a closer look at their fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to make an informed choice.
The Case for Lilly
Lilly has seen tremendous success with its popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound.
Despite being on the market for only around three years, Mounjaro and Zepbound have become key top-line drivers for Lilly, with demand rising rapidly. Mounjaro and Zepbound account for more than 50% of the company’s total revenues.
Launch of Mounjaro and Zepbound in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production in the United States have led to strong sales growth in 2025. Both drugs are expected to continue to see strong demand in 2026.
Regulatory approvals for new indications and improved production capacity are expected to boost sales further.
In addition to Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly has gained approvals for several other new drugs over the past couple of years, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla. These newly approved drugs are also contributing to Lilly’s revenue growth.
Lilly expects its new drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss and Kisunla, along with the expanded use of existing drugs, to drive sales growth in 2026.
Lilly is investing broadly in obesity and has several new molecules currently in clinical development with a range of oral and injectable medications with different mechanisms of action. These include two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist and some mid-stage candidates. Lilly has announced positive data across six studies on orforglipron in obesity and type II diabetes. An oral pill like orforglipron has the potential to be a more convenient alternative to injectable treatments like Zepbound and rival Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) Wegovy. Lilly plans to file regulatory applications for orforglipron in obesity later this year, setting up the timeline for a potential launch next year.
LLY is also working to diversify beyond GLP-1 drugs by expanding into cardiovascular, oncology and neuroscience areas. In 2025, it announced several M&A deals. It acquired Verve Therapeutics to add gene therapies for heart disease to its pipeline. Lilly has also entered into agreements to acquire Scorpion Therapeutics’ oncology drug and SiteOne Therapeutics’ non-opioid pain candidate.
Last week, Lilly announced a definitive agreement to acquire Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM - Free Report) , which will add the latter’s lead candidate, Ixo-vec, an intravitreal single-administration gene therapy being developed in phase III to treat vision loss associated with wet age-related macular degeneration. Ixo-vec has the potential to transform chronic eye care into a one-time treatment.
Also, earlier this month, President Trump announced deals with Lilly and NVO to cut prices of their respective GLP-1 therapies for obesity, Zepbound and Wegovy, in exchange for Medicare access for the drugs and a three-year exemption from tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.
Lilly has its share of problems. Prices of most of Lilly’s products are declining in the United States. Potential competition in the GLP-1 diabetes/obesity market is a key headwind.
Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity.
Several other companies, like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, are also making rapid progress in the development of more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.
The Case for J&J
J&J’s biggest strength is its diversified business model, as it has not just pharmaceuticals, but also medical devices, which helps it to withstand economic cycles more effectively. It operates through more than 275 subsidiaries and is less reliant on a single blockbuster drug.
J&J’s Innovative Medicine unit is showing a growth trend. The segment’s sales rose 3.4% in the first nine months of 2025 on an organic basis despite the LOE of Stelara and the negative impact of the Part D redesign.
In 2026, J&J expects accelerated growth in the Innovative Medicine segment to be driven by its key products, such as Darzalex, Tremfya, Spravato and Erleada, as well as new drugs like Carvykti, Tecvayli and Talvey, and recently launched products, including Tremfya in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), Rybrevant plus Lazcluze in non-small cell lung cancer and the newly approved drug, Inlexzo in bladder cancer.
J&J’s MedTech business has improved in the past two quarters, driven by the acquired cardiovascular businesses, Abiomed and Shockwave, as well as Surgical Vision and wound closure in Surgery. Improvements in J&J’s electrophysiology business also drove the growth.
Along with its third-quarter earnings release, J&J announced its intention to separate its Orthopaedics franchise in the MedTech segment into a standalone orthopedics-focused company, called DePuy Synthes.
The decision aligns with J&J’s efforts to shift its MedTech portfolio to high-innovation, high-growth markets like cardiovascular and robotic surgery. J&J expects that the separation will improve its MedTech unit’s growth and margins, as the Orthopaedics franchise has been a slow-growth business for J&J.
In 2026, J&J expects accelerated growth in both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
J&J has rapidly advanced its pipeline this year, attaining significant clinical and regulatory milestones that will help drive growth through the back half of the decade. This year, it gained approval for new products like Inlexzoh/TAR-200, a first-of-its-kind drug-releasing system, for treating high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer and Imaavy (nipocalimab) for treating generalized myasthenia gravis. J&J believes that nipocalimab has a pipeline-in-a-product potential. Regulatory applications were recently filed for another key candidate, icotrokinra, for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. J&J believes that icotrokinra has the potential to revolutionize the treatment of plaque psoriasis with a once-a-day pill.
J&J believes 10 of its new products/pipeline candidates in the Innovative Medicine segment have the potential to deliver peak sales of $5 billion, including Talvey, Tecvayli, Imaavy, newly acquired Caplyta, Inlexzo, Rybrevant, plus Lazcluze and icotrokinra.
However, the Stelara patent cliff, the impact of Part D redesign and slowing sales in China in the MedTech segment and the pending talc lawsuits are significant headwinds.
How Do Estimates Compare for LLY & JNJ?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LLY’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 41.6% and 82.4%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have risen over the past 30 days.
LLY Estimate Movement
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J&J’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 5.5% and 5.0%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has risen from $10.86 per share to $10.87, while that for 2026 has jumped from $11.46 to $11.48 over the past 30 days.
JNJ Estimate Movement
Price Performance and Valuation of LLY & JNJ
Year to date, LLY’s stock has surged 32.8% and J&J’s stock has risen 35.4%. The industry has jumped 13.9% in the said time frame.
J&J looks more attractive than Lilly from a valuation standpoint. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Lilly’s shares currently trade at 33.12 forward earnings, significantly higher than 16.72 for the industry. However, LLY’s stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.54. J&J’s shares currently trade at 17.17 forward earnings, higher than the industry as well as the stock’s 5-year mean of 15.65.
J&J’s dividend yield is 2.7%, while Lilly’s is around 0.6%.
LLY or JNJ: Which is a Better Pick?
J&J and Lilly have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, which makes choosing one stock a difficult task. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Both have seen their stocks and estimates rise this year.
J&J is a good stock for investors who are looking for stability and low risk in their investments, as it has shown steady revenue and EPS growth for years. J&J also boasts steady cash flows and has consistently increased its dividends for 63 consecutive years.
However, Lilly is a better pick for growth-oriented investors with more upside expectations than J&J. Despite its expensive valuation, Lilly is a great stock to have in one’s portfolio, considering its product and pipeline portfolio in high-growth therapeutic areas like obesity, robust growth prospects and bullish analyst sentiment.