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Why Is NVR (NVR) Down 6.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for NVR (NVR - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is NVR due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

NVR Q3 Earnings & Homebuilding Revenues Top, New Orders Down Y/Y

NVR reported third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and Homebuilding revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Meanwhile, both earnings and Homebuilding revenues declined on a year-over-year basis.

The third-quarter results highlight continued softness in the housing market, with affordability challenges persisting amid macroeconomic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. The Homebuilding segment saw a year-over-year decline in settlements, while average selling prices remained consistent with the prior-year quarter. Backlog units and new orders also fell, indicating continued caution among homebuyers, reflecting ongoing weakness in overall housing demand.

Additionally, the bottom line declined annually as a result of contract land deposit impairments, unfavorable pricing pressures from affordability concerns, and increased lot costs.

Inside NVR’s Headlines

The company reported earnings of $112.33 per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $107.88 by 4.1%. Contrarily, the reported figure decreased 14% from the prior-year quarter’s earnings of $130.50 per share.

Homebuilding revenues of $2.56 billion also surpassed the consensus mark of $2.41 billion by 6.3% but declined 4.4% year over year. Consolidated revenues (Homebuilding & Mortgage Banking fees combined) amounted to $2.61 billion, marginally down 4.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Segment Details of NVR

Homebuilding: Segment revenues declined 4.4% year over year to $2.56 billion. Settlements in the quarter were down 5% year over year to 5,639 units. Our model predicted settlements to decline 11.6% year over year to 5,224 units. The ASP for settlements remained consistent with the prior-year quarter at $454,000. Our estimate for the metric was $460,000.

The gross margin contracted 240 basis points year over year to 21%. Our estimate for the metric was 21.3%. The decline primarily reflects higher lot costs, pricing pressure stemming from ongoing affordability challenges and contract land deposit impairments totaling approximately $18.9 million.

New orders decreased 16% from the prior-year quarter’s level to 4,735 units. However, the ASP of new orders increased 3% year over year at $464,800. Our model predicted the ASP of new orders at $446,800. The cancellation rate increased to 19%, up from 15% a year ago.

On a unit basis, backlog at the end of Sept. 30, 2025, decreased 19% to 9,165 homes and $4.39 billion on a dollar basis from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

The average number of active communities was 450 in the quarter, up from 422 reported a year ago.

Mortgage Banking: Mortgage banking fees tumbled 11.1% year over year to $49.2 million. Mortgage closed loan production totalled $1.54 billion, down 7% year over year. The capture rate was 86% in the third quarter, at par with the year-ago quarter.

NVR’s Financials

As of Sept. 30, 2025, NVR had cash and cash equivalents for Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking of $1.93 billion and $39.3 million, respectively, compared with $2.56 billion and $49.6 million at 2024-end.

During the first nine months of 2025, NVR repurchased 178,178 shares for $1.33 billion. At the end of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had 2,860,899 shares outstanding.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, NVR has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, NVR has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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