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Can Newmont's Tier-1 Pivot Stem Its Ongoing Production Declines?

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Key Takeaways

  • Newmont's Q3 gold production fell about 15% year over year and marked a third straight sequential drop.
  • The company sees Q4 output roughly matching Q3 as gains at Ahafo North and Nevada offset other declines.
  • Newmont expects 2025 production near 5.9M ounces, though ongoing declines may pressure profitability.

Newmont Corporation’s (NEM - Free Report) gold production declined in the third quarter of 2025, largely linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. The move, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, weighed on production. The company reported a roughly 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the quarter, reaching 1.42 million ounces. This marked the third straight quarter of sequential production decline. 

Newmont continues to anticipate gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. For the fourth quarter, the company expects attributable production from the total Tier 1 portfolio to be relatively in line with the third quarter, as new ounces from Ahafo North and higher output from the Nevada Gold Mines are expected to be offset by lower leach production at Yanacocha as mining concludes in the fourth quarter and reduced grades at Ahafo South. For the ongoing quarter, Newmont expects production of 1.415 million ounces, indicating a roughly 25% year-over-year decline. 

Newmont’s transition to a high-quality, Tier-1 portfolio is a long-term strategy focused on reliability and efficiency. Whether these Tier-1 mines can ramp up sufficiently to hit full-year production targets remains uncertain. The production decline could undercut the profitability goals for 2025.

Looking across the competitive landscape, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) saw a 12% year-over-year decline in third-quarter 2025 gold production to 829,000 ounces. This follows a roughly 16% year-over-year decline in the prior quarter. Lower year-over-year production was mainly due to the suspension of operations at Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Barrick expects production to be the highest in the fourth quarter. 

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited’s (AEM - Free Report) payable gold production was 866,963 ounces in the third quarter, up from 863,445 ounces in the prior-year quarter. For 2025, Agnico Eagle maintained gold production expectations between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces. Production in the first nine months of 2025 was roughly 77% of the midpoint of Agnico Eagle’s full-year guidance.

The Zacks Rundown for NEM

Shares of Newmont have shot up 124.3% year to date against the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 115.1%, largely driven by the gold price rally.

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From a valuation standpoint, NEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 11.7, a roughly 5% discount to the industry average of 12.35X. It carries a Value Score of B.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 71.3% and 22.1%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

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NEM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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