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NTR vs. CF: Which Fertilizer Giant is the Better Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
NTR and CF benefit from strong agricultural markets, tight supplies and higher fertilizer pricing.
NTR sees record potash volumes while CF posts higher nitrogen sales and growing operating cash flow.
Both pursue shareholder returns and face rising input costs amid supply tightness and energy pressures.
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices this year.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for Nutrien
Nutrien is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, its cost-reduction action and strategic acquisitions. Improved fertilizer prices are providing further support. It is seeing robust fertilizer demand in its major markets.
The company expects record crop production prospects in the United States and sees strong demand for crop inputs. NTR saw record potash sales volumes in the first nine months of 2025, driven by favorable potash affordability and robust consumption in North America and major offshore markets. Third-quarter volumes also rose due to strong demand in North America and offshore. NTR has raised potash sales volume guidance for 2025 to 14-14.5 million tons, driven by anticipated higher global demand.
NTR should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business in 2025.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. NTR has accelerated operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives, and anticipates achieving around $200 million of total savings in 2025. The company is ahead of schedule on this cost-reduction goal.
NTR generates substantial cash flows and has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. Its operating cash flow surged 150% year over year to $1,030 million for the first nine months of 2025, supported by higher selling prices and sales volumes.
Further, Nutrien returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in the first nine months of 2025 through dividends and share buybacks, up around 42% from the prior-year period. NTR offers a healthy dividend yield of roughly 3.9% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 57% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). NTR has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.8%.
However, NTR remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur and natural gas as key inputs. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine contributed to the rise in natural gas prices. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also resulted in a tight supply of these inputs, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. The company saw higher sulfur input costs and natural gas prices in the third quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in phosphate and nitrogen businesses, respectively.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, fueled by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered.
Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen this year. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries also sees strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. Demand for urea is likely to remain strong in Brazil on higher corn plantings and in India, driven by low inventory levels.
The global nitrogen outlook remains positive through 2025 and beyond, supported by strong demand and tight supply, per CF Industries. India, Brazil, and North America are driving robust fertilizer consumption, while inventories remain below average despite resumed Chinese exports. Supply constraints from high energy costs and limited gas availability continue to pressure producers in Europe and Asia. Growing demand for low-carbon ammonia further strengthens the market. With energy cost advantages favoring North American producers and limited new capacity additions, the global nitrogen balance is expected to tighten, supporting firm pricing and margins in the years ahead.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the third quarter, net sales rose roughly 21% year over year to roughly $1.66 billion. Average selling prices increased year over year, driven by strong global nitrogen demand, supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, and higher global energy costs. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.06 billion in the third quarter, up around 14% year over year. CF returned $445 million to shareholders in the third quarter and around $1.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029.
Further, CF offers a healthy dividend yield of roughly 2.6% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 24%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 14.3%.
The company, however, faces headwinds from higher natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. It has seen a notable rise in natural gas costs during the first nine months of 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $2.96 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in the third quarter from $2.10 per MMBtu a year ago. The same for the first nine months increased to $3.34 per MMBtu from $2.38 per MMBtu in the year-ago period. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins in 2025.
Price Performance and Valuation of NTR & CF
The NTR stock is up 25.7% year to date, while CF has declined 9% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NTR is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.32. This represents a roughly 0.9% premium when stacked up with the industry average of 12.21X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.79, below NTR and the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for NTR & CF
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s 2025 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 3.5%. The same for EPS suggests a 30.6% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The consensus estimate for CF’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 17.6% and 31.8%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
Both Nutrien and CF Industries are benefiting from strong global demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Improving fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. Both remain committed to boosting shareholder returns. However, both are hamstrung by higher input costs. CF appears to have a slight edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate. In addition, CF’s higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.
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NTR vs. CF: Which Fertilizer Giant is the Better Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR - Free Report) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) are two of the biggest players in the fertilizer space. The underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics are spurring demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs.
Supportive farmer economics, improved affordability and low inventory levels are driving potash demand globally. The phosphate market is also benefiting from low producer and channel inventories. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer also remains strong in major markets such as North America, India and Brazil. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices this year.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two major fertilizer producers to determine which one is a better investment option in the current environment.
The Case for Nutrien
Nutrien is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, its cost-reduction action and strategic acquisitions. Improved fertilizer prices are providing further support. It is seeing robust fertilizer demand in its major markets.
The company expects record crop production prospects in the United States and sees strong demand for crop inputs. NTR saw record potash sales volumes in the first nine months of 2025, driven by favorable potash affordability and robust consumption in North America and major offshore markets. Third-quarter volumes also rose due to strong demand in North America and offshore. NTR has raised potash sales volume guidance for 2025 to 14-14.5 million tons, driven by anticipated higher global demand.
NTR should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business in 2025.
Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. It has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. NTR has accelerated operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives, and anticipates achieving around $200 million of total savings in 2025. The company is ahead of schedule on this cost-reduction goal.
NTR generates substantial cash flows and has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. Its operating cash flow surged 150% year over year to $1,030 million for the first nine months of 2025, supported by higher selling prices and sales volumes.
Further, Nutrien returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in the first nine months of 2025 through dividends and share buybacks, up around 42% from the prior-year period. NTR offers a healthy dividend yield of roughly 3.9% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 57% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). NTR has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 4.8%.
However, NTR remains exposed to a volatile input cost environment amid supply tightness. Nutrien uses sulfur and natural gas as key inputs. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine contributed to the rise in natural gas prices. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also resulted in a tight supply of these inputs, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. The company saw higher sulfur input costs and natural gas prices in the third quarter, leading to a higher cost of goods sold per ton in phosphate and nitrogen businesses, respectively.
The Case for CF Industries
CF Industries is capitalizing on the growing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, fueled by strong agricultural activity. After pandemic-related challenges, industrial demand for nitrogen has recovered.
Global nitrogen requirement is expected to remain strong in the near future due to recovering industrial demand and farmer economics. High levels of corn-planted acres in the United States should drive the demand for nitrogen this year. Demand in North America is expected to be fueled by favorable farm economics. CF Industries also sees strong demand for urea from Brazil and India. Demand for urea is likely to remain strong in Brazil on higher corn plantings and in India, driven by low inventory levels.
The global nitrogen outlook remains positive through 2025 and beyond, supported by strong demand and tight supply, per CF Industries. India, Brazil, and North America are driving robust fertilizer consumption, while inventories remain below average despite resumed Chinese exports. Supply constraints from high energy costs and limited gas availability continue to pressure producers in Europe and Asia. Growing demand for low-carbon ammonia further strengthens the market. With energy cost advantages favoring North American producers and limited new capacity additions, the global nitrogen balance is expected to tighten, supporting firm pricing and margins in the years ahead.
Higher nitrogen prices have also contributed to a boost in CF Industries’ revenues. In the third quarter, net sales rose roughly 21% year over year to roughly $1.66 billion. Average selling prices increased year over year, driven by strong global nitrogen demand, supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues, and higher global energy costs. Looking ahead, CF should continue to benefit from favorable pricing trends.
CF Industries continues to focus on enhancing shareholder value by utilizing its strong cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.06 billion in the third quarter, up around 14% year over year. CF returned $445 million to shareholders in the third quarter and around $1.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025. The company completed the $3 billion share repurchase program in October 2025. It started a new $2 billion share repurchase program effective through 2029.
Further, CF offers a healthy dividend yield of roughly 2.6% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 24%. CF has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 14.3%.
The company, however, faces headwinds from higher natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. It has seen a notable rise in natural gas costs during the first nine months of 2025. The average cost of natural gas increased to $2.96 per MMBtu (million metric British thermal unit) in the third quarter from $2.10 per MMBtu a year ago. The same for the first nine months increased to $3.34 per MMBtu from $2.38 per MMBtu in the year-ago period. Natural gas prices have shot up in Europe and Asia due to constrained supply availability. Higher gas costs are expected to weigh on CF’s margins in 2025.
Price Performance and Valuation of NTR & CF
The NTR stock is up 25.7% year to date, while CF has declined 9% compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s rise of 8%.
NTR is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.32. This represents a roughly 0.9% premium when stacked up with the industry average of 12.21X.
CF is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.79, below NTR and the industry.
How the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compares for NTR & CF
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s 2025 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 3.5%. The same for EPS suggests a 30.6% year-over-year increase. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
The consensus estimate for CF’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 17.6% and 31.8%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
NTR or CF: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Both NTR and CF currently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Both Nutrien and CF Industries are benefiting from strong global demand, thanks to the favorable agricultural conditions and supportive farm economics. Improving fertilizer prices are also expected to aid their performance. Both remain committed to boosting shareholder returns. However, both are hamstrung by higher input costs. CF appears to have a slight edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate. In addition, CF’s higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment.