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UMB (UMBF) Up 3.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UMB Financial (UMBF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UMB due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

UMB Financial Beats Q3 Earnings on Strong NII & Fee Income

UMB Financial’s third-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share of $2.70 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.48. The bottom line also compared favorably with $2.25 in the year-ago quarter.

The company delivered a strong quarterly performance, supported by organic growth within its legacy UMBF operations and the integration benefits of its January 2025 acquisition of Heartland Financial USA, Inc. The results were further bolstered by increases in net NII and non-interest income. However, the overall performance was partially offset by deteriorating asset quality and elevated non-interest expenses.

Net income (GAAP basis) for UMB Financial was $180.4 million in the third quarter, soaring 64.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Revenues & Expenses Rise

Quarterly revenues (FTE) were $686.7 million, surging 66.4% year over year. Also, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2%.

NII on an FTE basis was $483.4 million, a jump of 90.3% from the prior-year quarter. On an FTE basis, the net interest margin was 3.04%, up 58 bps year over year.  The increase was primarily driven by a rise in average earning assets due to rate and mix changes related to the acquisition of Heartland Financial.

Non-interest income was $203.3 million, up 28.1% year over year. The rise was primarily driven by an increase in trust and securities processing, and service charges on deposit accounts.

Non-interest expenses were $419.3 million, surging 66.1% year over year. Third-quarter 2025 expenses included $35.6 million in total acquisition-related and other non-recurring costs. Operating non-interest expenses (adjusted basis) were $385 million, up 53% year over year.

The efficiency ratio was 58.1%, up from the prior-year quarter’s 61.7%. A decline in the efficiency ratio indicates an increase in profitability.

Loans & Deposit Balances Rise

As of Sept. 30, 2025, average loans and leases were $37.1 billion, up 2% sequentially. Also, average deposits increased 2% year over year to $56.7 billion.

Credit Quality Deteriorates

The ratio of net charge-offs to average loans was 0.20% in the reported quarter compared with 0.14% in the prior-year quarter.
 
Total non-accrual and restructured loans were $131.9 million compared with $19.3 million in the prior-year quarter. 
 
The provision for credit losses was $22.5 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared with $18 million in the prior-year quarter.

Capital Ratios: Mixed Bag

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 11.3% compared with 11.2% as of Sept. 30, 2024. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.3% compared with 8.6% in the prior-year quarter. The total risk-based capital ratio was 13.1%, relatively unchanged from the year-ago quarter.

Profitability Ratios: Mixed Bag

Return on average assets at the third-quarter end was 1.04% compared with the year-ago quarter’s 1.01%.

The operating return on average common equity was 11.6% compared with 12.7% in the year-ago quarter.

Outlook

4Q 2025

Operating expenses are expected to be in the range of $375-$380 million.

2025

The company expects the tax rate to be between 19% and 22%, broader than the earlier range of 19-21%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, UMB has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, UMB has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

UMB belongs to the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry. Another stock from the same industry, Associated Banc-Corp (ASB - Free Report) , has gained 6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.

Associated Banc-Corp reported revenues of $386.49 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +17.2%. EPS of $0.73 for the same period compares with $0.56 a year ago.

Associated Banc-Corp is expected to post earnings of $0.69 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +21.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.7%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Associated Banc-Corp. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.


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