Back to top

Image: Bigstock

HPE to Post Q4 Earnings: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • HPE expects Q4 revenues of $9.7B-$10.1B and EPS of 5660 cents amid several operational
  • HPE's AI Systems revenues may decline as higher-cost deployments and Juniper integration weigh on margins.
  • HPE sees growth from Intelligent Edge, Aruba platforms and new server traction despite macro challenges.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results after market close on Dec. 4, 2025.

HPE anticipates revenues of $9.7-$10.1 billion for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $9.96 billion, suggesting growth of approximately 17.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

For the fiscal fourth quarter, the company expects non-GAAP earnings in the range of 56-60 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HPE’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 59 cents per share, reflecting a 1.72% increase year over year. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

In the trailing four quarters, HPE’s earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same on one occasion, with an average surprise of 4.4%.

Earnings Whispers for HPE

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for HPE this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

HPE currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.17% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors to Influence HPE’s Q4 Results

Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s AI Systems revenues are likely to have declined in fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, due to the large deal that shipped in third-quarter fiscal 2025. Moreover, HPE’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 bottom line is likely to have been impacted by a higher mix of lower-margin AI systems alongside high-cost AI rack deployments and integration expenses from Juniper.

HPE’s cash conversion cycle increased by nine days due to the inclusion of Juniper Networks. This is likely to have been a concern in the to-be-reported quarter too, although the company has assured that it will work on improving the cash conversion cycle. Enterprises are postponing their large IT spending plans due to macroeconomic issues that are likely to have negatively affected HPE’s top line.

Additionally, HPE continues to navigate a complex macro environment, including tariffs, trade policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty, which is likely to have impacted overall financial performance in the fourth quarter. However, not everything is gloom and doom for HPE.
HPE’s AI-driven networking portfolio is likely to have contributed to the growth of its Intelligent Edge services across campus and branch segments. Growth in Intelligent Edge is likely to have been driven by recovery in the networking market, Wi-Fi 7 adoption and enhancements in Aruba Networking Central.

The increasing adoption of the Aruba Edge Services Platform and HPE GreenLake is expected to have driven Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Rising traction in HPE Cray EX, Cray XT, HPE ProLiant Gen11 AI-optimized servers and Gen12 servers is likely to have supported HPE’s top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

HPE Stock Price Performance & Valuation

In the year-to-date period, HPE shares have gained 2.9%, underperforming the Zacks Electronics – Semiconductors industry’s growth of 61.2%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

HPE stock trades at a discounted price with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.7X compared with the industry’s 4.46X.
Investment Consideration for HPE

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

HPE is likely to benefit from the global server refresh cycle. Many enterprises are replacing outdated infrastructure with HPE’s more efficient and powerful servers. Its cloud business is also benefiting from the shipment of more than 5,000 Alletra MP arrays in 2025. In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, HPE was able to add 2,000 new users, amassing a total number of 44,000 customers for its GreenLake cloud.

However, HPE also faces some challenges. HPE’s leverage was raised to 3.1x after the acquisition of Juniper Networks, increasing interest expenses and limiting capital returns. Additionally, cash flow generation remains pressured by inventory digestion, higher variable compensation and working capital inefficiencies.

Networking margins reset to the low 20% range, below historical levels, while AI systems’ profitability remains constrained by high engineering and ramp costs. Together, these factors pose near-term challenges to margin recovery and free cash flow. Moreover, HPE’s subscription revenues and allied ARR growth are strongly tied to hybrid and private cloud solutions.

The global cloud space is led by other massive players like Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) and server space has strong competitors like Dell Technologies (DELL - Free Report) and Super Micro Computer. Amazon, through its Amazon Web Services, dominates services, including compute, storage, AI/ML, and hybrid offerings like Outposts and EKS Anywhere.

Microsoft, on the other hand, has a strong presence among enterprises because of its Azure Stack. Microsoft’s collaboration with AI has equipped it with AI Factory-like deployments. In the server space, Dell Technologies is capitalizing on the strong demand for its servers across industries, driven primarily by ongoing digital transformation and the adoption of generative AI applications. DELL has experienced sequential growth in server adoption.

Why is It Prudent to Avoid HPE Stock?

Although HPE has long-term prospects, the company is facing near-term challenges due to postponement of shipping in third-quarter fiscal 2025, a higher mix of lower-margin AI systems alongside high-cost AI rack deployments and integration expenses from Juniper Networks. 
Considering these factors, we suggest investors to stay away from this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock. 

Published in