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Why Is MPLX LP (MPLX) Up 6.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for MPLX LP (MPLX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MPLX LP due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for MPLX LP before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

MPLX Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates

MPLX reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.52 per unit, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. The bottom line also increased from the year-ago quarter’s $1.01.

Total quarterly revenues of $3.6 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.3 billion. The top line also increased from the prior-year level of $3 billion.

The strong quarterly results can be primarily attributed to increased gathering throughput and natural gas processed volumes. The quarterly performance also benefited from higher transportation rates and incremental contributions from recently acquired assets.

Distribution Hike

MPLX announced a 12.5% increase in its quarterly distribution, marking the second consecutive year of such an increase. This brings the annualized distribution to $4.31 per unit. The third-quarter 2025 distribution was $1.0765 per common unit.

Segmental Highlights

MPLX LP has redefined its reporting segments as Crude Oil and Products Logistics (previously known as Logistics and Storage), and Natural Gas and NGL Services (formerly known as Gathering and Processing).

MPLX’s adjusted EBITDA from the Crude Oil and Products Logistics segment increased 4% to $1.14 billion from $1.1 billion a year ago. The improvement was driven primarily by higher rates, though partially offset by higher operating expenses. Total pipeline throughputs in the quarter were 5.92 million barrels per day (mbpd), marginally down from the prior-year quarter’s 5.95 mbpd.

Adjusted EBITDA from the Natural Gas and NGL Services segment amounted to $629 million, up from the $620 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The segment saw growth, driven by inputs from recently purchased assets and greater production volumes. This was partly offset by a rise in operating costs.

Gathering throughput volumes averaged 6.91 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 3% increase from the year-ago level. Natural gas processed volumes totaled 10.1 Bcf/d, marking a 3% improvement from the year-ago level.

Costs & Expenses

Total costs and expenses were $1.82 billion, up from the year-ago figure of $1.70 billion. The increase was primarily led by higher operating expenses (including purchased product costs).

Cash Flow

The distributable cash flow in the quarter totaled $1.47 billion, providing 1.3X distribution coverage. The figure slightly increased from $1.44 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The adjusted free cash flow declined to a negative $2.31 billion from the inflow of $876 million in the corresponding period of 2024.

Balance Sheet

As of Sept. 30, 2025, the partnership’s cash and cash equivalents were $1.77 billion, and its total debt amounted to $25.65 billion.

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MPLX expects to sustain mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth while continuing to invest in its Permian and Marcellus basin operations. Management reaffirmed its focus on portfolio optimization through acquisitions such as the Delaware Basin sour gas treating business and divestitures like the Rockies gathering and processing assets to strengthen long-term growth.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, MPLX LP has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, MPLX LP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

MPLX LP is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines industry. Over the past month, Kinder Morgan (KMI - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 4.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.

Kinder Morgan reported revenues of $4.15 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +12.1%. EPS of $0.29 for the same period compares with $0.25 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Kinder Morgan is expected to post earnings of $0.36 per share, indicating a change of +12.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.1% over the last 30 days.

Kinder Morgan has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.


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