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Murphy Oil (MUR) Up 16.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Murphy Oil (MUR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 16.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy Oil due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Murphy Oil Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Murphy Oil Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates, New Wells Boost Volumes

Murphy Oil Corporation delivered third-quarter 2025 adjusted net earnings of 41 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16 cents by 156.3%. However, the bottom line decreased 60.9% from the year-ago quarter’s 74 cents.
 
GAAP loss was 2 cents per share in contrast to earnings of 93 cents in the year-ago quarter. The difference between GAAP and operating earnings was due to discontinued operations and other items affecting comparability between periods.

Revenues of Murphy Oil

Murphy Oil’s revenues were $732.9 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $665 million by 10.3%. However, revenues were down 3.3% year over year.

Murphy Oil’s Operational Highlights

Murphy Oil produced 200,383 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D) in third-quarter 2025 (excluding non-controlling interest in GOM), exceeding the guided range of 185,000-193,000 BOE/D, due to strong new well productivity and no storm downtime in the Gulf of America.

Total costs and expenses were $727.2 million, up 25.5% from $579.3 million in the year-ago quarter.

Interest expenses in the third quarter were $24.7 million compared with $21.3 million in the year-ago quarter.

21 new wells came online during the third quarter, which boosted production volumes.

Through the first nine months of 2025, Murphy Oil has returned $242.4 million to its shareholders, which includes $102.6 million of share repurchases and $139.8 million in dividends.

Financial Condition of Murphy Oil

The company had cash and cash equivalents of $425.9 million as of Sept. 30, 2025, compared with $423.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2024. It had $1.6 billion of liquidity as of Sept. 30, 2025.

Long-term debt totaled $1.425 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, compared with $1.27 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024.

Net cash provided by continuing operational activities in the first nine months of 2025 was $0.99 billion compared with $1.29 billion in the year-ago period.

Murphy Oil’s 2025 Guidance

Murphy Oil expects its fourth-quarter 2025 production, excluding NCI, in the range of 176,000-182,500 BOE/D. The company expects its exploration expenses to be $80 million in fourth-quarter 2025.

Murphy Oil reiterated its 2025 capital expenditures in the band of $1.13-$1.28 billion. 

The company expects its 2025 production to be in the range of 174,500-182,500 BOE/D.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -88.97% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Murphy Oil has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Murphy Oil has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Murphy Oil is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Over the past month, Gulfport Energy (GPOR - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 10.4%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.

Gulfport reported revenues of $379.74 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +49.6%. EPS of $3.29 for the same period compares with $3.37 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Gulfport is expected to post earnings of $6.09 per share, indicating a change of +26.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.2% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Gulfport. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.


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