A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Nutrien (NTR Quick QuoteNTR - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nutrien due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Nutrien Ltd. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Nutrien's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q3, Up Y/Y

Nutrien recorded profits of $496 million or 96 cents per share for the third quarter of 2025, surging from $25 million or 4 cents in the year-ago quarter. 

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 97 cents per share. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 93 cents. 

Sales rose around 12% year over year to $6,007 million in the quarter. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,827 million.

Segment Highlights

Sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment rose 5% year over year to $3,427 million in the quarter. In the third quarter, crop nutrients sales and gross margin rose, driven by higher sales volumes and selling prices on a strong application season in North America. The figure missed our estimate of $4,338 million. 

The Potash division reported a 27% year-over-year sales rise, totaling $1,122 million. The metric beat our estimate of $456 million. Third-quarter sales rose due to strong demand in North America and offshore. 

The Nitrogen segment posted sales of $1,063 million, up approximately 34% year over year. The figure beat our estimate of $809 million. In the third quarter of 2025, sales volumes rose, supported by strong demand and higher production of ammonia and upgraded nitrogen products. 

The Phosphate segment generated sales of $495 million, up around 20% year over year. This figure exceeded our estimate of $255 million.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $624 million, up around 20% year over year. Long-term debt was $10,390 million, flat year over year. 

Cash used in operating activities was $426 million in the reported quarter.

Outlook

The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.68 to $1.82 billion for 2025, reflecting expectations for stronger crop nutrient and crop protection sales in the second half compared to 2024.

Potash sales volume guidance has been raised to 14–14.5 million tons, in line with historical market share, driven by anticipated higher global demand. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 10.7–11 million tons, factoring in no additional sales volumes from Trinidad operations for the balance of 2025.

Phosphate sales volumes are expected to be 2.35–2.55 million tons, supported by improved operating rates and sales volumes in the fourth quarter.

Capital expenditures are projected at $2–$2.1 billion, below last year’s level, including $400–$500 million in growth investments targeting proprietary products, network optimization, digital capabilities, nitrogen brownfield expansions and potash mine automation. The effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings has been revised to 24.5–25.5%. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Nutrien has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Nutrien has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.