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Are You Ready for a Small-Cap Rally?

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It has been several years since we have seen a significant rally in small caps. The bounce back following the pandemic lifted most ships in the harbor, but the small caps were left out of a good part of that rally. While there have been many calls for the small caps to finally find an enduring rally, it just hasn’t happened.

One of the things that small caps need for their overdue rally is lower rates. Over the last few years, we started out looking at the potential for multiple rate cuts, but none of them panned out. This year was different as the Fed finally cut interest rates twice in late 2025, and we could see a third cut next week.

Rate cuts play a big role in the expectations for small-cap companies. The access to cheaper money allows for more growth and expansion.

Rate Cut Cycle

With two rate cuts in the bag, and another one having a roughly 75% chance of coming on Wednesday, we are officially in a rate cut cycle. The thing is, we aren’t bouncing that much.

Investors are also expecting three more rate cuts in 2026. This would serve as the tailwind that small caps have been begging for.

As much as the economy needs a lasting rate cut cycle, there is another thing we have going for us—President Trump is set to select a new head of the Federal Reserve and chances are that he is going to tap a person that shares his view on lower rates.

Struggles of Small Caps

Small-cap companies tend to be lesser known entities. They are typically not the big brand names in any segment of the economy and don’t carry much in the way of name recognition. As such, small caps have much tougher sledding when it comes to accessing the capital they need to ramp production.

Small caps also tend to carry a lot more risk for investors than the larger capitalized companies. This added risk translates, again, into a higher cost of capital if it is to be raised via stock offerings.

That excess risk is also an obstacle for some of the biggest investment houses when they analyze a potential investment in a smaller company. Since they are smaller, it is harder for these companies to get research coverage from some of the biggest broker-dealers. Without the research coverage, the investment houses take on more responsibility for making an investment in a small company as there isn’t that extra set of eyes from the bulge bracket watching along with them.

The Rewards of Small-Cap Investing Can Be Huge

Just in the sense of size, it is hard to imagine a mega-cap software company doubling or tripling in price over the course of a year…but not for a small-cap company.

Good news often begets more good news for the smaller companies as the attention from a big earnings beat or major contract win can bring more eyeballs to their product or service. That, in turn, will drive investors to chase shares higher…and due to their small-cap nature, there often isn’t a lot of sellers at the top, and that can cause stock prices to soar.

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One of the key ideas behind this whole scenario is being invested in the small-cap stock before the big move. Being in early and before the move can be much more profitable for investors than chasing a small cap on its way up. The inherent problem with this part of the strategy is that it can be hard to know when a small-cap name is about to take off. Thus, owning a basket of stocks is the best solution to the problem.

The final aspect of the rewards of small-cap investing that needs to be addressed is that a healthy dose of patience goes a long way. There are hundreds of examples of companies that started off small and just kept growing. If an investor finds a great small-cap stock, the chances of it growing to a mid cap and then maybe into a large cap are pretty good.

That scenario is the stuff investing dreams are made of.

Execute On A Plan for Small-Cap Stocks

Now that we have an idea of the risks and rewards of small-cap investing, as well as the knowledge that a rally in the space is long overdue, we need to have a plan of attack. While this plan is simple, it requires something that few of us have – constant diligence. Investors have to be prepared to closely follow not only the stocks they hold, but their competitors and the biggest of names in any given sector.

Another critical success factor – that was touched on before – is having a basket of stocks. Finance textbooks from the 1950s suggested that proper portfolio diversification comes from 25 stocks, but the academics have more recently revised that number to 12-15. That is still a lot of stocks to follow, but it prevents the average investor from being overexposed to the more risky stock segment.

Finally, investors need to pay attention to the fundamentals of the companies they own. Be sure to see that they are not only growing sales and earnings, but that they are also outperforming the expectations of Wall Street. For this to happen, a company needs a qualified management team who knows how to communicate to The Street in such a way that they guide their expectations to a beatable level.

Add all these factors together and you have a great framework for small-cap stock success.

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Best,

Brian

Brian Bolan is our aggressive growth expert and the editor of Zacks Stocks Under $10 portfolio.

¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position. Access grants you a comprehensive list of all open and closed trades.


 

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