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AFG Lags Industry, Trades at Premium: Here's How to Play the Stock

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Key Takeaways

  • American Financial sees growth from new business, added exposure and crop premium gains.
  • AFG posts 37 quarters of renewal rate increases aimed at exceeding loss ratio trends.
  • American Financial's long-term dividend growth reflects strong profitability and capital discipline.

Shares of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG - Free Report) have lost 2.8% in the year-to-date period, underperforming its industry, the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return of 7.5% and 15% and 18.6%, respectively. 

The insurer has a market capitalization of $11.09 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.4 million.

Zacks Investment Research
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AFG’s Expensive Valuation

Based on the forward 12-month price-to-book ratio, American Financial is currently trading at 2.35X, above its industry average of 1.48X. 
Shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) and Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average, while NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH - Free Report) shares are trading at a discount.

AFG’s Growth Projection Encourages

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 15.8% and 6.1%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates.

Average Target Price for AFG Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by five analysts, the Zacks average price target is $140.20 per share. The average suggests a potential 5.5% upside from the last closing price.

AFG’s Favorable Return on Capital

American Financial’s return on equity has also been improving over the last few quarters, reflecting its efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ funds. The trailing 12 months ROE was 18%, which compared favorably with the industry average of 8%.

Factors Favoring AFG

New business opportunities, increased exposure and a good renewal rate environment, coupled with additional crop premiums from the Crop Risk Services acquisition, position AFG well for growth.

American Financial, a niche player in the P&C market, is likely to benefit from strategic acquisitions and improved pricing. Improved industry fundamentals drive overall growth.

American Financial witnessed average renewal pricing across the entire P&C Group. It intends to maintain satisfactory rates in P&C renewal pricing going forward. AFG reported overall renewal rate increases for 37 consecutive quarters. The company expects to achieve overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed the targeted returns. The property and casualty insurer expects to achieve overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed targeted returns.

Its combined ratio has been better than the industry average for more than two decades. Specialty niche focus, product line diversification and underwriting discipline should help AFG outperform the industry’s underwriting results.

Wealth Distribution

American Financial has increased its dividend for 19 straight years, apart from paying special dividends occasionally. This reflects its financial stability, which stems from robust operating profitability in the P&C segment, stellar investment performance and effective capital management.

Dividend payments and share repurchases totaled $6.9 billion over the last five years. The quarterly dividend increased 10% beginning in October of 2025. The robust operating profitability at the P&C segment, a stellar investment performance and effective capital management support effective shareholders return.

Conclusion

American Financial’s prudent capital deployment, increased exposures, good renewal rate environment and improved combined ratio make it an attractive stock. It intends to maintain satisfactory rates in P&C renewal pricing going forward. 

AFG also has a VGM Score of B. Stocks with a favorable VGM Score are those with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum compared with peers. 

Despite its expensive valuation, American Financial should benefit from strategic acquisitions, new business opportunities, stronger underwriting profit and favorable growth estimates. It is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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