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Can Eli Lilly Sustain Its Obesity Momentum as Newer Players Emerge?
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Key Takeaways
LLY relies on its expanding obesity pipeline as more biotech challengers enter the market.
GPCR's aleniglipron showed notable weight-loss data, adding pressure in the obesity space.
LLY pushes orforglipron and retatrutide toward late-stage milestones to preserve obesity momentum.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) is one of the two companies that dominate the booming cardiometabolic space, driven by its successful GLP-1 therapies — Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, both comprising the same ingredient, tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 RA.
Despite facing strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity, Lilly’s drugs have witnessed strong uptake since launch, becoming its key top-line drivers. In the first nine months of 2025, Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $24.8 billion, accounting for 54% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues.
However, the pharma giant is facing mounting competitive pressure as several smaller biotech players are advancing rapidly in the obesity arena, attracted by the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Earlier this week, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) reported positive top-line data from the ACCESS clinical program of its investigational candidate, aleniglipron, for treating obesity.
In the core 36-week phase IIb ACCESS study, GPCR’s aleniglipron met its primary and all key secondary endpoints, with the 120 mg dose delivering an 11.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss. Higher doses drove deeper reductions, reaching 15.3% at 240 mg. Extension data showed continued weight loss through 44 weeks with no plateau, supporting durability and advancement to phase III.
Structure Therapeutics is gearing up to initiate late-stage studies of aleniglipron for obesity around mid-2026, pending alignment with the FDA. Shares of LLY were down following the news, signaling investor concerns amid the intensifying competitive landscape. GPCR is also building depth in its obesity pipeline, with ANPA-0073 currently awaiting initiation of mid-stage development, alongside several preclinical programs.
To address this, Eli Lilly is advancing a slate of next-generation obesity candidates while pursuing label expansions for its tirzepatide franchise. This includes two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist, and some mid-stage candidates, bimagrumab, eloralintide, and mazdutide.
Orforglipron is emerging as a central pillar of Eli Lilly’s obesity strategy, offering a convenient once-daily oral alternative to injectable therapies like Zepbound and Wegovy. Backed by positive results across six studies, Lilly plans regulatory filings for orforglipron in obesity soon, positioning the candidate for a potential 2026 launch. A key phase III study, ATTAIN-MAINTAIN, is currently assessing reduced weight maintenance in patients switching from injectable semaglutide/tirzepatide, with data expected in 2026. Lilly believes that the results will be pivotal for defining orforglipron’s market opportunity.
Retatrutide is another major obesity candidate in Lilly’s pipeline, with three phase III obesity data readouts expected in the second half of 2026. The candidate is designed to deliver deeper and faster weight loss than current therapies. Please note that both orforglipron and retatrutide are simultaneously being evaluated for several other indications beyond obesity.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Novo Nordisk is Eli Lilly’s fierce competitor in the obesity space. Like LLY, NVO is also evaluating several next-generation weight loss candidates. NVO has filed a regulatory application for an oral version of Wegovy to treat obesity, with a decision from the FDA expected soon. A notable candidate is CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and Wegovy, for which a regulatory submission for the obesity indication is planned in 2026. The company is also gearing up to launch a dedicated late-stage program for cagrilintide injection as a monotherapy to treat obesity, soon. Novo Nordisk is developing oral and subcutaneous formulations of a mid-stage candidate, amycretin, for obesity and diabetes indications.
Another small biotech company making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in its clinical pipeline is Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). VKTX’s dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In June, Viking Therapeutics started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. While one of these studies recently completed enrolment at a rapid pace, VKTX expects to complete enrolment in the other study by early 2026.
Overall, while competitive pressures are rising, Lilly’s expanding portfolio, late-stage pipeline depth, and continued investment in next-generation obesity therapies position the company to sustain its momentum, while long-term lead will depend on successful clinical readouts and timely launches.
LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Eli Lilly have gained 27% in the past year compared with the industry’s 7.2% growth. The company has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Price Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, LLY stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 30.26 forward earnings, higher than 16.31 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.54.
LLY Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimates for Eli Lilly’s 2025 earnings have improved from $23.06 to $23.91 per share in the past 60 days, and estimates for 2026 earnings have improved from $30.79 to $33.36 over the same time frame.
Image: Shutterstock
Can Eli Lilly Sustain Its Obesity Momentum as Newer Players Emerge?
Key Takeaways
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY - Free Report) is one of the two companies that dominate the booming cardiometabolic space, driven by its successful GLP-1 therapies — Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, both comprising the same ingredient, tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 RA.
Despite facing strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s (NVO - Free Report) semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity, Lilly’s drugs have witnessed strong uptake since launch, becoming its key top-line drivers. In the first nine months of 2025, Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $24.8 billion, accounting for 54% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues.
However, the pharma giant is facing mounting competitive pressure as several smaller biotech players are advancing rapidly in the obesity arena, attracted by the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Earlier this week, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR - Free Report) reported positive top-line data from the ACCESS clinical program of its investigational candidate, aleniglipron, for treating obesity.
In the core 36-week phase IIb ACCESS study, GPCR’s aleniglipron met its primary and all key secondary endpoints, with the 120 mg dose delivering an 11.3% placebo-adjusted weight loss. Higher doses drove deeper reductions, reaching 15.3% at 240 mg. Extension data showed continued weight loss through 44 weeks with no plateau, supporting durability and advancement to phase III.
Structure Therapeutics is gearing up to initiate late-stage studies of aleniglipron for obesity around mid-2026, pending alignment with the FDA. Shares of LLY were down following the news, signaling investor concerns amid the intensifying competitive landscape. GPCR is also building depth in its obesity pipeline, with ANPA-0073 currently awaiting initiation of mid-stage development, alongside several preclinical programs.
To address this, Eli Lilly is advancing a slate of next-generation obesity candidates while pursuing label expansions for its tirzepatide franchise. This includes two late-stage candidates, orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 small molecule, and retatrutide, a GGG tri-agonist, and some mid-stage candidates, bimagrumab, eloralintide, and mazdutide.
Orforglipron is emerging as a central pillar of Eli Lilly’s obesity strategy, offering a convenient once-daily oral alternative to injectable therapies like Zepbound and Wegovy. Backed by positive results across six studies, Lilly plans regulatory filings for orforglipron in obesity soon, positioning the candidate for a potential 2026 launch. A key phase III study, ATTAIN-MAINTAIN, is currently assessing reduced weight maintenance in patients switching from injectable semaglutide/tirzepatide, with data expected in 2026. Lilly believes that the results will be pivotal for defining orforglipron’s market opportunity.
Retatrutide is another major obesity candidate in Lilly’s pipeline, with three phase III obesity data readouts expected in the second half of 2026. The candidate is designed to deliver deeper and faster weight loss than current therapies. Please note that both orforglipron and retatrutide are simultaneously being evaluated for several other indications beyond obesity.
Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space
Novo Nordisk is Eli Lilly’s fierce competitor in the obesity space. Like LLY, NVO is also evaluating several next-generation weight loss candidates. NVO has filed a regulatory application for an oral version of Wegovy to treat obesity, with a decision from the FDA expected soon. A notable candidate is CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and Wegovy, for which a regulatory submission for the obesity indication is planned in 2026. The company is also gearing up to launch a dedicated late-stage program for cagrilintide injection as a monotherapy to treat obesity, soon. Novo Nordisk is developing oral and subcutaneous formulations of a mid-stage candidate, amycretin, for obesity and diabetes indications.
Another small biotech company making rapid progress in the development of GLP-1-based candidates in its clinical pipeline is Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). VKTX’s dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In June, Viking Therapeutics started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of its investigational obesity drug, VK2735. While one of these studies recently completed enrolment at a rapid pace, VKTX expects to complete enrolment in the other study by early 2026.
Overall, while competitive pressures are rising, Lilly’s expanding portfolio, late-stage pipeline depth, and continued investment in next-generation obesity therapies position the company to sustain its momentum, while long-term lead will depend on successful clinical readouts and timely launches.
LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Eli Lilly have gained 27% in the past year compared with the industry’s 7.2% growth. The company has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Price Movement
From a valuation standpoint, LLY stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 30.26 forward earnings, higher than 16.31 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.54.
LLY Stock Valuation
Estimates for Eli Lilly’s 2025 earnings have improved from $23.06 to $23.91 per share in the past 60 days, and estimates for 2026 earnings have improved from $30.79 to $33.36 over the same time frame.
LLY Estimate Movement
Eli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.