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BROS vs. KDP: Which Coffee Stock Is Better Positioned for 2026?
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Key Takeaways
BROS is accelerating growth with 175 new shops in 2026 and a long runway toward 2,000-plus locations.
BROS is driving same-shop sales through higher transactions, digital engagement and food additions.
KDP offers steadier earnings via Keurig system and beverage portfolio, but faces slower at-home coffee growth.
As investors look ahead to 2026, the coffee space presents a compelling contrast between growth-driven ambition and scale-backed stability. Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) , a fast-expanding drive-thru chain, continues to capture attention with its aggressive store rollout, younger customer base and brand momentum, while Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP - Free Report) offers a more diversified, cash-generative model anchored by at-home coffee leadership and a broad beverage portfolio.
With consumer spending patterns evolving and competition intensifying across both away-from-home and at-home channels, the debate comes down to whether faster unit growth or defensive earnings power makes for the better coffee stock setup heading into 2026.
The Case for BROS
Dutch Bros stands out for its long-term expansion visibility, with management’s confidence to reach more than 2,000 shops by 2029. The company is accelerating its development pace, targeting roughly 175 new system openings in 2026, supported by a record pipeline of approved sites. Importantly, new-shop productivity remains strong, with average unit volumes at record levels, suggesting that growth is not coming at the expense of returns. This disciplined yet aggressive rollout gives BROS a multi-year growth lever that many mature beverage peers simply lack.
While many restaurant and beverage chains are struggling to drive traffic, Dutch Bros has delivered multiple consecutive quarters of transaction growth. Same-shop sales gains are being fueled more by higher visits than pricing, highlighting genuine demand rather than inflation-driven growth. The brand continues to resonate strongly with younger consumers, a cohort that has been under pressure elsewhere, reinforcing the durability of its customer connection and positioning BROS well as discretionary spending stabilizes heading into 2026.
Dutch Bros is still in the early stages of monetizing its digital ecosystem. Order Ahead penetration is climbing steadily, feeding into its highly engaged loyalty base, which now accounts for a large majority of transactions. At the same time, the rollout of hot food is creating incremental morning traffic and lifting average tickets without disrupting throughput. These initiatives expand daypart relevance and deepen customer engagement, giving BROS multiple levers to compound growth beyond just store openings.
The biggest near-term concern for Dutch Bros lies on the cost side. Elevated coffee prices, higher labor-related expenses in certain states and incremental costs tied to food rollout and new-market openings are weighing on margins. As the company continues to invest aggressively in growth, profitability may remain choppy in the near term. While management views these pressures as manageable and strategic, it introduces execution risk if sales momentum slows or costs remain elevated into 2026.
The Case for KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper enters 2026 with a clear advantage in diversification. Unlike pure-play coffee names, KDP balances its exposure between at-home coffee and a fast-growing refreshment beverages portfolio led by Dr Pepper, Canada Dry and Snapple. This mix has allowed the company to deliver consistent revenue and earnings growth even as the U.S. coffee category faced cyclical pressure. That diversified earnings base reduces volatility and gives KDP more flexibility to invest through commodity cycles, positioning it as a steadier long-term compounder.
KDP’s coffee strength is anchored by the Keurig system, which continues to dominate North America’s single-serve coffee. With tens of millions of active households and deep partnerships with leading coffee brands, Keurig benefits from repeat consumption, premium pricing and strong cash generation. The company is also leaning into innovation with premium, cold coffee and next-generation brewing platforms, which should help reaccelerate growth as coffee demand normalizes. Scale advantages in sourcing, manufacturing and distribution further reinforce Keurig’s competitive position heading into 2026.
KDP’s ability to consistently generate strong free cash flow remains a key pillar of its investment case. That cash flow supports dividends, debt reduction and strategic investments without sacrificing financial discipline. Management has also outlined plans to sharpen strategic focus through portfolio optimization, including steps to unlock value within the coffee business over time. For investors prioritizing earnings visibility and capital returns alongside moderate growth, KDP offers a compelling risk-adjusted setup for 2026.
The main overhang for KDP is that U.S. at-home coffee growth has been slower and more uneven than initially anticipated. Elevated coffee prices and shifting consumption patterns have pressured volumes and a sustained recovery is still unfolding. While management sees the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, prolonged weakness or execution missteps in innovation could limit upside relative to faster-growing, store-based coffee concepts. As a result, KDP’s growth profile may remain more measured than higher-octane peers despite its stability advantages.
How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for BROS & KDP?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dutch Bros’ 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates a year-over-year increase of 24.2% and 27.9%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keurig Dr Pepper’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rally of 4.7% and 6.1%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of BROS & KDP
Dutch Bros’ shares have surged 18.5% in the past month. Meanwhile, KDP stock has gained 9.5%.
BROS & KDP Stock 1-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BROS’ forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple sits at 5.05X over the past year. KDP is trading at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 2.33X.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The End Notes
Taken together, the comparison suggests Dutch Bros holds a slight edge over Keurig Dr Pepper heading into 2026 because its growth drivers are more company-specific and visible, rather than largely tied to category recovery. BROS is benefiting from strong unit expansion, rising transaction counts and deeper customer engagement through digital and menu innovation, giving it multiple ways to compound growth even in a cautious consumer environment. While near-term margin pressures remain a risk, the brand’s momentum and expanding footprint provide a clearer runway for outsized growth relative to peers.
In contrast, KDP offers steadier earnings power and diversification, but its upside appears more constrained by slower at-home coffee trends and a more mature portfolio. Both stocks have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, yet BROS stands slightly ahead due to its stronger long-term growth narrative and greater potential to outperform if execution remains on track.
Image: Bigstock
BROS vs. KDP: Which Coffee Stock Is Better Positioned for 2026?
Key Takeaways
As investors look ahead to 2026, the coffee space presents a compelling contrast between growth-driven ambition and scale-backed stability. Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) , a fast-expanding drive-thru chain, continues to capture attention with its aggressive store rollout, younger customer base and brand momentum, while Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP - Free Report) offers a more diversified, cash-generative model anchored by at-home coffee leadership and a broad beverage portfolio.
With consumer spending patterns evolving and competition intensifying across both away-from-home and at-home channels, the debate comes down to whether faster unit growth or defensive earnings power makes for the better coffee stock setup heading into 2026.
The Case for BROS
Dutch Bros stands out for its long-term expansion visibility, with management’s confidence to reach more than 2,000 shops by 2029. The company is accelerating its development pace, targeting roughly 175 new system openings in 2026, supported by a record pipeline of approved sites. Importantly, new-shop productivity remains strong, with average unit volumes at record levels, suggesting that growth is not coming at the expense of returns. This disciplined yet aggressive rollout gives BROS a multi-year growth lever that many mature beverage peers simply lack.
While many restaurant and beverage chains are struggling to drive traffic, Dutch Bros has delivered multiple consecutive quarters of transaction growth. Same-shop sales gains are being fueled more by higher visits than pricing, highlighting genuine demand rather than inflation-driven growth. The brand continues to resonate strongly with younger consumers, a cohort that has been under pressure elsewhere, reinforcing the durability of its customer connection and positioning BROS well as discretionary spending stabilizes heading into 2026.
Dutch Bros is still in the early stages of monetizing its digital ecosystem. Order Ahead penetration is climbing steadily, feeding into its highly engaged loyalty base, which now accounts for a large majority of transactions. At the same time, the rollout of hot food is creating incremental morning traffic and lifting average tickets without disrupting throughput. These initiatives expand daypart relevance and deepen customer engagement, giving BROS multiple levers to compound growth beyond just store openings.
The biggest near-term concern for Dutch Bros lies on the cost side. Elevated coffee prices, higher labor-related expenses in certain states and incremental costs tied to food rollout and new-market openings are weighing on margins. As the company continues to invest aggressively in growth, profitability may remain choppy in the near term. While management views these pressures as manageable and strategic, it introduces execution risk if sales momentum slows or costs remain elevated into 2026.
The Case for KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper enters 2026 with a clear advantage in diversification. Unlike pure-play coffee names, KDP balances its exposure between at-home coffee and a fast-growing refreshment beverages portfolio led by Dr Pepper, Canada Dry and Snapple. This mix has allowed the company to deliver consistent revenue and earnings growth even as the U.S. coffee category faced cyclical pressure. That diversified earnings base reduces volatility and gives KDP more flexibility to invest through commodity cycles, positioning it as a steadier long-term compounder.
KDP’s coffee strength is anchored by the Keurig system, which continues to dominate North America’s single-serve coffee. With tens of millions of active households and deep partnerships with leading coffee brands, Keurig benefits from repeat consumption, premium pricing and strong cash generation. The company is also leaning into innovation with premium, cold coffee and next-generation brewing platforms, which should help reaccelerate growth as coffee demand normalizes. Scale advantages in sourcing, manufacturing and distribution further reinforce Keurig’s competitive position heading into 2026.
KDP’s ability to consistently generate strong free cash flow remains a key pillar of its investment case. That cash flow supports dividends, debt reduction and strategic investments without sacrificing financial discipline. Management has also outlined plans to sharpen strategic focus through portfolio optimization, including steps to unlock value within the coffee business over time. For investors prioritizing earnings visibility and capital returns alongside moderate growth, KDP offers a compelling risk-adjusted setup for 2026.
The main overhang for KDP is that U.S. at-home coffee growth has been slower and more uneven than initially anticipated. Elevated coffee prices and shifting consumption patterns have pressured volumes and a sustained recovery is still unfolding. While management sees the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, prolonged weakness or execution missteps in innovation could limit upside relative to faster-growing, store-based coffee concepts. As a result, KDP’s growth profile may remain more measured than higher-octane peers despite its stability advantages.
How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for BROS & KDP?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dutch Bros’ 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates a year-over-year increase of 24.2% and 27.9%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keurig Dr Pepper’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rally of 4.7% and 6.1%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of BROS & KDP
Dutch Bros’ shares have surged 18.5% in the past month. Meanwhile, KDP stock has gained 9.5%.
BROS & KDP Stock 1-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BROS’ forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple sits at 5.05X over the past year. KDP is trading at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 2.33X.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The End Notes
Taken together, the comparison suggests Dutch Bros holds a slight edge over Keurig Dr Pepper heading into 2026 because its growth drivers are more company-specific and visible, rather than largely tied to category recovery. BROS is benefiting from strong unit expansion, rising transaction counts and deeper customer engagement through digital and menu innovation, giving it multiple ways to compound growth even in a cautious consumer environment. While near-term margin pressures remain a risk, the brand’s momentum and expanding footprint provide a clearer runway for outsized growth relative to peers.
In contrast, KDP offers steadier earnings power and diversification, but its upside appears more constrained by slower at-home coffee trends and a more mature portfolio. Both stocks have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, yet BROS stands slightly ahead due to its stronger long-term growth narrative and greater potential to outperform if execution remains on track.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.