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Circle vs. Strategy: Which Crypto-Exposed Stock Has an Edge Now?
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Key Takeaways
Circle's USDC circulation hit $73.7B, up 108% YoY, lifting its stablecoin market share to 29%.
CRCL is scaling beyond stablecoins by its Payments Network & Arc blockchain testnet with institutional users.
MSTR remains heavily tied to Bitcoin, with 640,808 BTC held and performance driven by crypto price swings.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL - Free Report) and Strategy (MSTR - Free Report) are both publicly traded companies with stock performance closely tied to the cryptocurrency market, but they gain that exposure through distinct models.
Circle is a crypto-native financial company best known for issuing USDC, a leading U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. Each USDC token is issued only when Circle receives equivalent U.S. dollar deposits, thereby maintaining a 1:1 dollar peg. Strategy, by contrast, functions as a Bitcoin treasury company. As a major corporate holder of Bitcoin, MSTR’s share price largely moves in tandem with BTC price appreciation.
According to Grand View Research, the global cryptocurrency market is projected to reach $11.71 billion by 2030, expanding at a 13.1% CAGR, highlighting the importance of choosing the right crypto-linked business model today. With crypto adoption accelerating and institutional interest growing, it is sensible to compare the CRCL and MSTR.
The Case for CRCL Stock
Circle offers differentiated crypto exposure through USDC, the second-largest U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. Unlike crypto miners or Bitcoin-treasury firms, the company’s exposure is utility-driven, anchored in payments, trading and on-chain financial infrastructure. As of Sept. 30, 2025, USDC circulation reached $73.7 billion, up 108% year over year, raising Circle's stablecoin market share to 29%, with USDC accounting for nearly 40% of stablecoin transactions.
Circle benefits from strong network effects built on trust, transparency and compliance. USDC is fully backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries held in cash and through the Circle Reserve Fund, where reserves are segregated for the benefit of holders. On-chain activity surged in the third quarter of 2025, with $9.6 trillion in USDC transaction volume and 6.3 million meaningful wallets, reflecting deepening adoption across payments, DeFi and capital markets. Strategic partnerships with Visa, Deutsche Börse, Kraken, Finastra, Fireblocks and Itaú further expand global distribution.
Circle’s growth is being supported by newer products. The Circle Payments Network is gaining traction, with annualized transaction volume reaching $3.4 billion. Arc, the company’s Layer-1 blockchain, is now in public testnet and already has more than 100 institutional participants. CRCL is also considering launching a native Arc token, which could further expand the ecosystem and create additional long-term upside.
Circle’s profitability is highly influenced by interest rates (via reserve income), regulatory changes and competition from other stablecoins and yield-bearing products. Distribution costs tied to partners like Coinbase also weigh on margins.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRCL’s 2026 earnings has decreased 4.2% to 92 cents per share over the past 30 days. CRCL reported a loss of 87 cents per share in 2025.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Case for MSTR Stock
Strategy operates as the world's largest Bitcoin treasury company. As of Oct. 26, 2025, the company held 640,808 bitcoins, approximately 3.1% of all bitcoins in existence, with a net asset value of approximately $71 billion and an average acquisition cost of $74,032 per BTC. All holdings remain 100% unencumbered, highlighting MSTR's strong exposure to BTC.
Strategy’s core strength lies in its scale, disciplined capital raising and innovative financial engineering. In the year-to-date period, the company raised $19.8 billion, primarily through preferred equity issuances (STRF, STRK, STRD, STRC), reducing reliance on convertible debt. Its capital structure supports Bitcoin accumulation while managing volatility and funding costs, with annual interest and dividend obligations of $689 million, less than 1% of total Bitcoin. MSTR recently received an S&P B- credit rating, expanding access to broader credit markets.
Strategy’s upside is largely driven by Bitcoin price appreciation and its ability to increase “Bitcoin per share.” Year to date, the company has delivered a 26% BTC yield and a $12.9 billion gain in BTC value, and it is targeting a 30% BTC yield and $20 billion gain for full-year 2025.
However, MSTR faces elevated volatility, valuation sensitivity to Bitcoin prices and dilution risk from ongoing equity and preferred issuance. Its earnings are now highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements, given the company’s large Bitcoin holdings.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $51.6 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. This indicates a 33.88% decrease from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of CRCL and MSTR
In the past six months, CRCL shares have fallen 44.8% compared with MSTR’s 53.8% plunge. Circle’s relative outperformance reflects its more diversified business model, supported by expanding partnerships and product initiatives such as its payments network and broader blockchain offerings. These growth drivers provide a narrative that is less directly tied to Bitcoin’s price movements. In contrast, MSTR’s performance remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin volatility, increasing pressure during weak crypto markets.
CRCL vs. MSTR Stock Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both Circle and Strategy shares are currently overvalued, as suggested by a Value Score of D and F, respectively. CRCL is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 99.67X, significantly higher than MSTR’s 3.34X.
CRCL vs. MSTR Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Circle appears better positioned than Strategy at this stage, offering a more attractive crypto exposure through its diversified, adoption-led business model. The growth in USDC circulation, increased transaction volume and expanded partnerships reduce reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations. New initiatives such as the Circle Payments Network and Arc further extend long-term optionality. Compared with Strategy’s highly leveraged, Bitcoin-centric profile, Circle offers more stable growth visibility with lower sensitivity to crypto-market volatility.
Image: Bigstock
Circle vs. Strategy: Which Crypto-Exposed Stock Has an Edge Now?
Key Takeaways
Circle Internet Group (CRCL - Free Report) and Strategy (MSTR - Free Report) are both publicly traded companies with stock performance closely tied to the cryptocurrency market, but they gain that exposure through distinct models.
Circle is a crypto-native financial company best known for issuing USDC, a leading U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. Each USDC token is issued only when Circle receives equivalent U.S. dollar deposits, thereby maintaining a 1:1 dollar peg. Strategy, by contrast, functions as a Bitcoin treasury company. As a major corporate holder of Bitcoin, MSTR’s share price largely moves in tandem with BTC price appreciation.
According to Grand View Research, the global cryptocurrency market is projected to reach $11.71 billion by 2030, expanding at a 13.1% CAGR, highlighting the importance of choosing the right crypto-linked business model today. With crypto adoption accelerating and institutional interest growing, it is sensible to compare the CRCL and MSTR.
The Case for CRCL Stock
Circle offers differentiated crypto exposure through USDC, the second-largest U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. Unlike crypto miners or Bitcoin-treasury firms, the company’s exposure is utility-driven, anchored in payments, trading and on-chain financial infrastructure. As of Sept. 30, 2025, USDC circulation reached $73.7 billion, up 108% year over year, raising Circle's stablecoin market share to 29%, with USDC accounting for nearly 40% of stablecoin transactions.
Circle benefits from strong network effects built on trust, transparency and compliance. USDC is fully backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries held in cash and through the Circle Reserve Fund, where reserves are segregated for the benefit of holders. On-chain activity surged in the third quarter of 2025, with $9.6 trillion in USDC transaction volume and 6.3 million meaningful wallets, reflecting deepening adoption across payments, DeFi and capital markets. Strategic partnerships with Visa, Deutsche Börse, Kraken, Finastra, Fireblocks and Itaú further expand global distribution.
Circle’s growth is being supported by newer products. The Circle Payments Network is gaining traction, with annualized transaction volume reaching $3.4 billion. Arc, the company’s Layer-1 blockchain, is now in public testnet and already has more than 100 institutional participants. CRCL is also considering launching a native Arc token, which could further expand the ecosystem and create additional long-term upside.
Circle’s profitability is highly influenced by interest rates (via reserve income), regulatory changes and competition from other stablecoins and yield-bearing products. Distribution costs tied to partners like Coinbase also weigh on margins.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRCL’s 2026 earnings has decreased 4.2% to 92 cents per share over the past 30 days. CRCL reported a loss of 87 cents per share in 2025.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Case for MSTR Stock
Strategy operates as the world's largest Bitcoin treasury company. As of Oct. 26, 2025, the company held 640,808 bitcoins, approximately 3.1% of all bitcoins in existence, with a net asset value of approximately $71 billion and an average acquisition cost of $74,032 per BTC. All holdings remain 100% unencumbered, highlighting MSTR's strong exposure to BTC.
Strategy’s core strength lies in its scale, disciplined capital raising and innovative financial engineering. In the year-to-date period, the company raised $19.8 billion, primarily through preferred equity issuances (STRF, STRK, STRD, STRC), reducing reliance on convertible debt. Its capital structure supports Bitcoin accumulation while managing volatility and funding costs, with annual interest and dividend obligations of $689 million, less than 1% of total Bitcoin. MSTR recently received an S&P B- credit rating, expanding access to broader credit markets.
Strategy’s upside is largely driven by Bitcoin price appreciation and its ability to increase “Bitcoin per share.” Year to date, the company has delivered a 26% BTC yield and a $12.9 billion gain in BTC value, and it is targeting a 30% BTC yield and $20 billion gain for full-year 2025.
However, MSTR faces elevated volatility, valuation sensitivity to Bitcoin prices and dilution risk from ongoing equity and preferred issuance. Its earnings are now highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements, given the company’s large Bitcoin holdings.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $51.6 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. This indicates a 33.88% decrease from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation of CRCL and MSTR
In the past six months, CRCL shares have fallen 44.8% compared with MSTR’s 53.8% plunge. Circle’s relative outperformance reflects its more diversified business model, supported by expanding partnerships and product initiatives such as its payments network and broader blockchain offerings. These growth drivers provide a narrative that is less directly tied to Bitcoin’s price movements. In contrast, MSTR’s performance remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin volatility, increasing pressure during weak crypto markets.
CRCL vs. MSTR Stock Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both Circle and Strategy shares are currently overvalued, as suggested by a Value Score of D and F, respectively. CRCL is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 99.67X, significantly higher than MSTR’s 3.34X.
CRCL vs. MSTR Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Circle appears better positioned than Strategy at this stage, offering a more attractive crypto exposure through its diversified, adoption-led business model. The growth in USDC circulation, increased transaction volume and expanded partnerships reduce reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations. New initiatives such as the Circle Payments Network and Arc further extend long-term optionality. Compared with Strategy’s highly leveraged, Bitcoin-centric profile, Circle offers more stable growth visibility with lower sensitivity to crypto-market volatility.
CRCL and MSTR currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.