The fertilizer industry fared relatively well in 2025 after facing a perfect storm in 2024, which was plagued by a sharp decline in prices for key crop nutrients amid oversupply in the market and weak demand. This price decline not only hit the profitability of major fertilizer producers but also resulted in the industry significantly underperforming the S&P 500 last year. While the challenges persisted in the earlier parts of 2025, improved fertilizer prices put the industry back on its feet this year.  

The industry is still mired in challenges, including elevated costs of key raw materials, partly due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Weaker crop prices and higher costs could also potentially result in farmers reducing application rates, partly due to affordability issues, leading to weaker fertilizer demand. Against this backdrop, a few fertilizer players such as Nutrien Ltd. (NTR Quick QuoteNTR - Free Report) , Yara International ASA (YARIY Quick QuoteYARIY - Free Report) and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI Quick QuoteIPI - Free Report) are worth a look as we enter the new year.

2025: A Mixed Bag for Fertilizer Industry

Fertilizer prices dropped dramatically across the board in 2024, driven by a combination of oversupply, weaker global demand and a normalization of supply chains disrupted during previous years. The oversupply driven by the ramp-up of production by major producers created a glut in the market, leading to a downward spiral in prices. The resolution of logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions allowed producers to operate at full capacity, further adding to the oversupply problem.

On a positive note, strong demand and supply tightness have led to an uptick in fertilizer prices in 2025, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices of phosphate, potash and nitrogen have been driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. Higher fertilizer prices have largely contributed to the top line and margin expansion for companies in this space.

While farm income is projected to rise this year, growers face challenges from increased fertilizer prices, higher input and other costs and lower crop commodity prices. Escalating costs are likely to result in farmers reducing fertilizer applications or switching to less fertilizer-intensive crops, leading to softer demand. 

Per the U.S. Department of Agriculture (“USDA”), net farm income is projected to climb 40.7% year over year to $179.8 billion this year, driven by a significant increase in government payments. However, this reflects a decline from USDA’s February 2025 projection of $180.1 billion. Also, farmers face challenges from lower expected crop receipts in 2025. USDA sees crop cash receipts to decline 2.5% year over year in 2025 due to lower prices for most crops. Prices of corn, soybean and wheat have decreased from the multi-year highs reached in 2022, and remain lower this year due to oversupply.

Increased prices of major raw materials pose a headwind to fertilizer companies. Prices of both sulfur and ammonia — key inputs for the production of phosphate — remain elevated. Supply disruptions from Russia amid the war with Ukraine contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia. Plant shutdowns and maintenance also led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Rising natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, are also a concern. Higher raw material costs have led to an increase in production costs. As such, fertilizer makers are likely to face short-term margin pressure associated with higher input costs.

Nonetheless, fundamentals in the broader agriculture space remain positive, given the sustained rise in food demand globally. Farmer economics also remain attractive in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand. Expectations of high levels of planted corn and soybean acres globally also suggest a pickup in fertilizer demand heading into 2026.

3 Fertilizer Stocks to Watch in 2026

The fertilizer industry rebounded in 2025 after a difficult 2024 marked by steep price declines from oversupply and weak demand. Improved fertilizer prices have lifted revenues and margins this year, though producers still face higher input costs. Farmers grapple with rising costs and lower crop prices, which may curb fertilizer use despite the expected rise in farm income. 

While near-term demand may soften, underlying fundamentals remain solid, supporting companies in this space. Factors such as increased planted acres, favorable farm incomes and a more balanced supply-demand equation are likely to support the industry, presenting opportunities to invest in fundamentally strong fertilizer stocks. We have handpicked three fertilizer stocks that are worth a look heading into 2026. These stocks have healthy earnings growth prospects and have witnessed positive estimate revisions, reflecting analyst optimism.  

One-year Stock Price Performance of NTR, YARIY & IPI

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Nutrien: Canada-based Nutrien is benefiting from higher demand for crop nutrients, backed by supportive global agriculture markets. It is seeing strong demand in its major markets, particularly North America. NTR is also gaining from acquisitions, cost efficiency and increased adoption of its digital platform. The company also continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. The company has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. 

Nutrien has expected earnings growth of 32.6% for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has been revised 1.5% upward over the past 60 days. Nutrien currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Yara International: Norway-based Yara International is a leading global producer and supplier of mineral fertilizers. It has industry-leading experience in ammonia development, production, operations and distribution. A favorable nitrogen demand environment bodes well for YARIY. Cost reductions and actions to strengthen the balance sheet are expected to boost the company’s profitability and cash flows. YARIY also remains focused on rewarding its shareholders by leveraging strong cash flows.

Yara International presently has a Zacks Rank #3. It has an expected earnings growth rate of 150.6% for 2025. YARIY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 58.4%, on average. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings for YARIY has increased 0.9% over the past 60 days.   

Intrepid Potash: Colorado-based Intrepid Potash is the only producer of muriate of potash in the United States and makes a specialty fertilizer, Trio. It is gaining from a healthy demand environment, aided by healthy farmer economics and favorable crop prices. A recovery in economic activities is spurring demand for Trio. Higher demand for key products is expected to drive IPI’s volumes. The company also remains focused on executing its capital projects, which are expected to boost its production.

Intrepid Potash currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. IPI has a projected earnings growth rate of 506.7% for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings for IPI has been revised 3.4% upward over the past 60 days.