It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Copa Holdings (CPA Quick QuoteCPA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Copa Holdings due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Copa Holdings, S.A. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Copa Holdings Beats on Q3 Earnings

Copa Holdings, S.A. reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.20, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.03 and improved 20% year over year. Revenues of $913.1 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $915 million and inched up 6.8% year over year.

Passenger revenues (which contributed 94.3% to the top line) grew 5.2% year over year to $861.33 million. The upside was owing to an 8% year-over-year increase in revenue passenger miles (RPMs), partially offset by a 2.6% decrease in yield.

Cargo and mail revenues of $29.68 million grew 21.4% year over year, owing to higher cargo volumes. Other operating revenues of $22.13 million improved 86.3% year over year, owing to increased ConnectMiles revenues from the renewal of a co-branded credit card agreement.

CPA’s Other Financial Details

On a consolidated basis, Copa Holdings’ traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) grew 8% and capacity (measured in available seat miles) increased 5.8% from the year-ago quarter. Since traffic growth outpaced capacity expansion, the load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) increased 1.8 percentage points to 88% in the reported quarter.

Passenger revenue per available seat mile dipped 0.5% year over year to 10.5 cents. Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) grew 1% year over year to 11.1 cents. Cost per available seat mile dipped 2.7% year over year. Excluding fuel, the metric fell 0.8% year over year. The average fuel price per gallon decreased 6.1% year over year to $2.44.

Total operating expenses increased 2.9% year over year to $700.84 million, owing to capacity growth, partially offset by lower fuel and maintenance costs.

Expenses on wages, salaries, benefits and other employee expenses rose 5.4% year over year. Sales and distribution costs increased 6.6% year over year. Passenger servicing costs grew 4.8% from the year-ago quarter. Airport facilities and handling charges grew 8.8% year over year. Other operating and administrative expenses increased 3.5% from the third quarter of 2024.

Copa Holdings exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $248.82 million compared with $236.17 million at the prior-quarter end.

During the third quarter of 2025, CPA took delivery of five Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and added a second Boeing 737-800 freighter under an operating lease agreement. 

CPA’s Outlook

CPA’s management expects consolidated capacity to grow 8% (prior view: up 7-8%) year over year, and the operating margin is expected to be in the range of 22-23% (prior view: 21-23%). The fuel cost is expected to be $2.47 per gallon (prior view: $2.45).

RASM is still expected to be 11.2 cents. The load factor for the current year is expected to be 87%. Non-fuel unit costs are anticipated to be 5.8 cents.

Preliminarily, for 2026, CPA currently anticipates its capacity to grow by almost 11-13% on a year-over-year basis, with unit costs excluding fuel (Ex-Fuel CASM) expected to be in the range of 5.7 to 5.8 cents.

Copa Holdings expects to end 2025 with 124 aircraft (prior view: 125 aircraft) and 2026 with 132 aircraft (prior view: 131 aircraft).

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, Copa Holdings has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Copa Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Copa Holdings is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, LATAM (LTM Quick QuoteLTM - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 15.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.

LATAM reported revenues of $3.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +17.3%. EPS of $1.30 for the same period compares with $1.00 a year ago.

For the current quarter, LATAM is expected to post earnings of $1.35 per share, indicating a change of +50% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.1% over the last 30 days.

LATAM has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.