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CCL vs. RCL: Which Cruise Stock Looks Stronger for 2026?
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Key Takeaways
Royal Caribbean shows record 2026 bookings at high pricing, signaling strength without heavy discounting.
CCL cut debt by over $10B, reached investment-grade leverage, and reinstated dividends heading into 2026.
RCL's newer ships and expanding private destinations support yields, margins, and earnings visibility.
As investors look toward 2026, the cruise sector has moved past survival mode and into a phase where execution matters most. Travel demand remains strong, pricing has held up, and ships are sailing full, but balance sheets, margins, and growth strategies now separate winners from laggards. This sets up a timely comparison between Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL - Free Report) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL - Free Report) , two giants taking different paths into the next cycle.
Carnival is still focused on strengthening its financial footing and turning demand into consistent free cash flow after years of heavy leverage. Royal Caribbean, by contrast, is leaning on newer ships, premium offerings, and higher onboard spending to drive earnings momentum. With the recovery largely priced in, investors are now asking a sharper question: which cruise stock looks structurally stronger for 2026?
The Case for CCL
Carnival enters 2026 with clear operational momentum, having delivered record results in 2025. Management highlighted that revenues, yields, operating income, and EBITDA all reached all-time highs, with net income exceeding $3 billion for the year, representing a roughly 60% year-over-year increase. Importantly, this performance was not driven by aggressive discounting, but by stronger close-in demand, higher ticket pricing and accelerating onboard spending across brands. The company also achieved its highest return on invested capital in nearly two decades, underscoring that the recovery has transitioned into a more profitable, disciplined growth phase.
Looking ahead, visibility into demand remains strong. Carnival is already about two-thirds booked for 2026 at historically high prices in both North America and Europe, with record booking volumes extending into 2027. Management expects same-ship yield growth to continue, supported by disciplined revenue management, resilient consumer demand, and differentiated private destinations like Celebration Key and future Paradise Collection assets. These initiatives are positioning Carnival to grow earnings again in 2026 despite elevated industry capacity growth in the Caribbean.
One of Carnival’s biggest improvements has been financial discipline. The company has reduced debt by more than $10 billion from peak levels and achieved an investment-grade leverage profile by the end of 2025. This progress has meaningfully lowered interest expense and improved cash flow visibility. With leverage now moving toward under-3x net debt to EBITDA, management has reinstated the dividend and signaled flexibility for future capital returns, an important shift for investors focused on 2026 and beyond
Despite the progress, Carnival is not without challenges. Unit costs are expected to rise in 2026 due to inflation, higher marketing spend, dry dock activity, and new destination operating expenses. While management expects efficiency gains to offset part of this pressure, margins remain more sensitive to cost inflation than peers with newer fleets or higher premium exposure. Additionally, elevated Caribbean capacity industry-wide could test pricing power if demand softens, making execution critical for Carnival’s 2026 outlook.
The Case for RCL
Royal Caribbean enters the 2026 setup with clear momentum in demand, pricing and execution. Management highlighted that bookings for 2026 are already tracking at record rates, with booked load factors comfortably within historical norms and pricing at the high end of past ranges. This matters because it signals that RCL is not relying on heavy discounting to fill ships. Instead, demand strength is being driven by premium hardware, differentiated itineraries, and a loyal customer base that continues to prioritize experiences, even as broader consumer spending normalizes.
Another major positive is RCL’s expanding ecosystem of exclusive destinations and next-generation ships, which continues to support yield growth and onboard spending. The company plans to grow its private destination portfolio from two locations to eight by 2028, including Beach Clubs and Perfect Day Mexico, creating itinerary differentiation that competitors struggle to replicate. These assets not only lift ticket pricing but also drive high-margin onboard revenue, reinforcing RCL’s ability to grow yields even during periods of moderate capacity expansion.
Financial discipline further strengthens the 2026 outlook. Management reiterated its formula of moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, and “anemic” cost inflation, which is expected to drive continued margin expansion. RCL ended the quarter with leverage below 3x and nearly $7 billion in liquidity, giving it flexibility to fund growth, return capital through dividends and buybacks, and still maintain an investment-grade balance sheet. Importantly, management indicated that 2026 earnings are likely to start with a “$17 handle,” underscoring confidence in another year of strong profit growth.
The key risk for Royal Caribbean is that the bar is now set high after several years of exceptional yield growth. With tougher comparisons ahead and some industry capacity growth in regions like the Caribbean, yield expansion is likely to moderate rather than accelerate. While Royal Caribbean’s differentiated assets should help it outperform peers, any softening in consumer willingness to pay or increased promotional activity could limit upside versus recent years, making execution in 2026 more important than ever.
How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for CCL & RCL?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival’s fiscal 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates year-over-year increases of 4.1% and 9.3%, respectively. In the past seven days, earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 have witnessed upward revisions, as shown in the chart.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Royal Caribbean’s 2026 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 9.4% and 14.5%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation
Royal Caribbean stock has risen 27.2% year to date, significantly outpacing its industry’s growth of 7.3%. Meanwhile, Carnival’s shares have gained 25.4% in the same time.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RCL is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 16.45X, above its median of 16.29X over the last year. CCL’s forward earnings multiple sits at 12.95X, above its median of 12.42X over the same time frame.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End Notes
Overall, the analysis points to Royal Caribbean having a slight edge over Carnival as the industry shifts from recovery to execution. Both companies are sailing into the next phase with solid demand and healthier balance sheets, but Royal Caribbean’s newer ships, premium mix, and expanding private destinations give it stronger pricing power and more consistent margin support. Carnival’s turnaround in cash flow and leverage is significant, yet its earnings remain more exposed to cost pressures and mass-market dynamics.
With both CCL and RCL carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), Royal Caribbean stands out marginally due to better earnings visibility and a business model geared toward sustaining profitability as growth moderates.
Image: Bigstock
CCL vs. RCL: Which Cruise Stock Looks Stronger for 2026?
Key Takeaways
As investors look toward 2026, the cruise sector has moved past survival mode and into a phase where execution matters most. Travel demand remains strong, pricing has held up, and ships are sailing full, but balance sheets, margins, and growth strategies now separate winners from laggards. This sets up a timely comparison between Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL - Free Report) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL - Free Report) , two giants taking different paths into the next cycle.
Carnival is still focused on strengthening its financial footing and turning demand into consistent free cash flow after years of heavy leverage. Royal Caribbean, by contrast, is leaning on newer ships, premium offerings, and higher onboard spending to drive earnings momentum. With the recovery largely priced in, investors are now asking a sharper question: which cruise stock looks structurally stronger for 2026?
The Case for CCL
Carnival enters 2026 with clear operational momentum, having delivered record results in 2025. Management highlighted that revenues, yields, operating income, and EBITDA all reached all-time highs, with net income exceeding $3 billion for the year, representing a roughly 60% year-over-year increase. Importantly, this performance was not driven by aggressive discounting, but by stronger close-in demand, higher ticket pricing and accelerating onboard spending across brands. The company also achieved its highest return on invested capital in nearly two decades, underscoring that the recovery has transitioned into a more profitable, disciplined growth phase.
Looking ahead, visibility into demand remains strong. Carnival is already about two-thirds booked for 2026 at historically high prices in both North America and Europe, with record booking volumes extending into 2027. Management expects same-ship yield growth to continue, supported by disciplined revenue management, resilient consumer demand, and differentiated private destinations like Celebration Key and future Paradise Collection assets. These initiatives are positioning Carnival to grow earnings again in 2026 despite elevated industry capacity growth in the Caribbean.
One of Carnival’s biggest improvements has been financial discipline. The company has reduced debt by more than $10 billion from peak levels and achieved an investment-grade leverage profile by the end of 2025. This progress has meaningfully lowered interest expense and improved cash flow visibility. With leverage now moving toward under-3x net debt to EBITDA, management has reinstated the dividend and signaled flexibility for future capital returns, an important shift for investors focused on 2026 and beyond
Despite the progress, Carnival is not without challenges. Unit costs are expected to rise in 2026 due to inflation, higher marketing spend, dry dock activity, and new destination operating expenses. While management expects efficiency gains to offset part of this pressure, margins remain more sensitive to cost inflation than peers with newer fleets or higher premium exposure. Additionally, elevated Caribbean capacity industry-wide could test pricing power if demand softens, making execution critical for Carnival’s 2026 outlook.
The Case for RCL
Royal Caribbean enters the 2026 setup with clear momentum in demand, pricing and execution. Management highlighted that bookings for 2026 are already tracking at record rates, with booked load factors comfortably within historical norms and pricing at the high end of past ranges. This matters because it signals that RCL is not relying on heavy discounting to fill ships. Instead, demand strength is being driven by premium hardware, differentiated itineraries, and a loyal customer base that continues to prioritize experiences, even as broader consumer spending normalizes.
Another major positive is RCL’s expanding ecosystem of exclusive destinations and next-generation ships, which continues to support yield growth and onboard spending. The company plans to grow its private destination portfolio from two locations to eight by 2028, including Beach Clubs and Perfect Day Mexico, creating itinerary differentiation that competitors struggle to replicate. These assets not only lift ticket pricing but also drive high-margin onboard revenue, reinforcing RCL’s ability to grow yields even during periods of moderate capacity expansion.
Financial discipline further strengthens the 2026 outlook. Management reiterated its formula of moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, and “anemic” cost inflation, which is expected to drive continued margin expansion. RCL ended the quarter with leverage below 3x and nearly $7 billion in liquidity, giving it flexibility to fund growth, return capital through dividends and buybacks, and still maintain an investment-grade balance sheet. Importantly, management indicated that 2026 earnings are likely to start with a “$17 handle,” underscoring confidence in another year of strong profit growth.
The key risk for Royal Caribbean is that the bar is now set high after several years of exceptional yield growth. With tougher comparisons ahead and some industry capacity growth in regions like the Caribbean, yield expansion is likely to moderate rather than accelerate. While Royal Caribbean’s differentiated assets should help it outperform peers, any softening in consumer willingness to pay or increased promotional activity could limit upside versus recent years, making execution in 2026 more important than ever.
How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for CCL & RCL?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival’s fiscal 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates year-over-year increases of 4.1% and 9.3%, respectively. In the past seven days, earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 have witnessed upward revisions, as shown in the chart.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Royal Caribbean’s 2026 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 9.4% and 14.5%, respectively. In the past 30 days, earnings estimates for 2026 have remained stable.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance & Valuation
Royal Caribbean stock has risen 27.2% year to date, significantly outpacing its industry’s growth of 7.3%. Meanwhile, Carnival’s shares have gained 25.4% in the same time.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RCL is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 16.45X, above its median of 16.29X over the last year. CCL’s forward earnings multiple sits at 12.95X, above its median of 12.42X over the same time frame.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
End Notes
Overall, the analysis points to Royal Caribbean having a slight edge over Carnival as the industry shifts from recovery to execution. Both companies are sailing into the next phase with solid demand and healthier balance sheets, but Royal Caribbean’s newer ships, premium mix, and expanding private destinations give it stronger pricing power and more consistent margin support. Carnival’s turnaround in cash flow and leverage is significant, yet its earnings remain more exposed to cost pressures and mass-market dynamics.
With both CCL and RCL carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), Royal Caribbean stands out marginally due to better earnings visibility and a business model geared toward sustaining profitability as growth moderates.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.