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Is Santa Rally Just Beginning? How to Play With ETFs
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Key Takeaways
Santa Rally momentum is building as stocks hover near record highs after a strong holiday week.
A Goldilocks U.S. economy, marked by solid growth and easing inflation, supports risk assets into early 2026.
ETFs like MDYV, XLK, KBE and RTH may benefit from sector rotation, rate cuts and resilient consumers.
U.S. stocks finished Friday’s session slightly lower after five successive days of gains, marking the second day of the seasonal “Santa Claus rally.” The holiday-shortened week was strong overall. The S&P 500 has advanced about 2%, the Dow Jones has gained 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite has surged 2.0%.
Santa Claus Rally Momentum Builds
With stocks closing last week near record levels, conditions appear favorable for a continuation of the Santa Claus rally, which typically spans the final five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January.
“Momentum heading into year-end suggests a favorable setup for a positive Santa Claus Rally — a historically bullish signal for January and the year ahead,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Favorable Historical Trend
Historical trends offer encouragement. Over the past 75 years, the Santa Claus rally has never produced negative returns for more than two consecutive years. With both 2023 and 2024 posting losses during the period, a positive rally this year (if it happens at all) could signal a strong start to 2026 -- though history doesn’t guarantee anything, per Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, as quoted in the same Yahoo Finance article.
Is U.S. Economy Showing a Goldilocks Scenario?
“The economy is demonstrating a Goldilocks scenario with above-potential U.S. economic growth, and declining but elevated inflation and a less robust labor market,” according to Comerica Wealth Management’s CIO Eric Teal, as quoted in the above-mentioned Yahoo Finance article. So, a path forward needs a balance among the above-said forces.
A Goldilocks economy is defined as one that has been witnessing steady economic growth but not so much that it can stoke inflation. The U.S. economy is currently in this situation. The U.S. GDP rose an annualized 4.3% in Q3 of 2025, the highest in two years compared to 3.8% in Q2, and forecasts of 3.3%, per Trading Economics.
Consumer spending grew 3.5%, the most so far this year, according to Trading Economics. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below the forecast of 3.1% and the 3% reported for September (per Trading Economics).
ETF Areas to Play
Against the abovementioned backdrop, below we highlight a few investing areas and their related ETFs that could gain in a Goldilocks U.S. economy and make the most of a likely Santa Rally this year.
Mid-Cap – State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV - Free Report)
Smaller-cap stocks or mid-caps generally lead the way higher on improving American economic health as these are closely tied to the U.S. economy and generate most of their revenues from the domestic market. However, mid-caps do have international exposure as well. International economies are also in a good shape currently. In any case, a trend of investment rotation is happening from technology (due to apparent “AI fatigue”) lately and mid-cap stocks have seen good momentum.
With the global economy in decent shape, things are fine for tech stocks. This is because the chances of an imminent recession have lessened, a good omen for tech players, which are growth plays. At the same time, the Fed enacted three rate cuts this year. A low-interest-rate situation doesn’t hurt tech stocks’ cash inflows. Instead, their cost of borrowing gets reduced, eventually boosting profit margins.
The banking corner of the broad financial sector has been an area to watch lately as investors have started to dig into the undervalued area. Capital market activity has improved, while the yield curve has steepened. Both are favorable for the banking sector. Robust third-quarter results of the banks have added to the strength.
As consumer spending accounts for a major share of U.S. GDP, solid economic growth will have a positive impact on the consumer discretionary sector. Plus, the ongoing holiday season should benefit the sector and the fund RTH even more.
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Is Santa Rally Just Beginning? How to Play With ETFs
Key Takeaways
U.S. stocks finished Friday’s session slightly lower after five successive days of gains, marking the second day of the seasonal “Santa Claus rally.” The holiday-shortened week was strong overall. The S&P 500 has advanced about 2%, the Dow Jones has gained 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite has surged 2.0%.
Santa Claus Rally Momentum Builds
With stocks closing last week near record levels, conditions appear favorable for a continuation of the Santa Claus rally, which typically spans the final five trading days of December and the first two sessions of January.
“Momentum heading into year-end suggests a favorable setup for a positive Santa Claus Rally — a historically bullish signal for January and the year ahead,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Favorable Historical Trend
Historical trends offer encouragement. Over the past 75 years, the Santa Claus rally has never produced negative returns for more than two consecutive years. With both 2023 and 2024 posting losses during the period, a positive rally this year (if it happens at all) could signal a strong start to 2026 -- though history doesn’t guarantee anything, per Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, as quoted in the same Yahoo Finance article.
Is U.S. Economy Showing a Goldilocks Scenario?
“The economy is demonstrating a Goldilocks scenario with above-potential U.S. economic growth, and declining but elevated inflation and a less robust labor market,” according to Comerica Wealth Management’s CIO Eric Teal, as quoted in the above-mentioned Yahoo Finance article. So, a path forward needs a balance among the above-said forces.
A Goldilocks economy is defined as one that has been witnessing steady economic growth but not so much that it can stoke inflation. The U.S. economy is currently in this situation. The U.S. GDP rose an annualized 4.3% in Q3 of 2025, the highest in two years compared to 3.8% in Q2, and forecasts of 3.3%, per Trading Economics.
Consumer spending grew 3.5%, the most so far this year, according to Trading Economics. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below the forecast of 3.1% and the 3% reported for September (per Trading Economics).
ETF Areas to Play
Against the abovementioned backdrop, below we highlight a few investing areas and their related ETFs that could gain in a Goldilocks U.S. economy and make the most of a likely Santa Rally this year.
Mid-Cap – State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV - Free Report)
Smaller-cap stocks or mid-caps generally lead the way higher on improving American economic health as these are closely tied to the U.S. economy and generate most of their revenues from the domestic market. However, mid-caps do have international exposure as well. International economies are also in a good shape currently. In any case, a trend of investment rotation is happening from technology (due to apparent “AI fatigue”) lately and mid-cap stocks have seen good momentum.
Technology – Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK - Free Report)
With the global economy in decent shape, things are fine for tech stocks. This is because the chances of an imminent recession have lessened, a good omen for tech players, which are growth plays. At the same time, the Fed enacted three rate cuts this year. A low-interest-rate situation doesn’t hurt tech stocks’ cash inflows. Instead, their cost of borrowing gets reduced, eventually boosting profit margins.
Bank – SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE - Free Report)
The banking corner of the broad financial sector has been an area to watch lately as investors have started to dig into the undervalued area. Capital market activity has improved, while the yield curve has steepened. Both are favorable for the banking sector. Robust third-quarter results of the banks have added to the strength.
Retail – VanEck Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report)
As consumer spending accounts for a major share of U.S. GDP, solid economic growth will have a positive impact on the consumer discretionary sector. Plus, the ongoing holiday season should benefit the sector and the fund RTH even more.