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Is Canadian Natural Stock Still an Income Play for 2026?

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Key Takeaways

  • CNQ has raised its dividend for 25 straight years, offering a 5.1% yield going into 2026.
  • Record Q3 production and low costs supported C$3.9B in adjusted funds flow and C$6.2B in shareholder returns.
  • CNQ's net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.9X and C$4.3B liquidity reinforce income reliability despite weaker earnings.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited ((CNQ - Free Report) ) has long been viewed as a defensive income play within the Canadian energy space. As investors look toward 2026, the stock continues to stand out for dividend reliability and balance-sheet strength, even as sector volatility and softer earnings expectations weigh on sentiment.

Compared with peers such as Suncor Energy ((SU - Free Report) ) and Cenovus Energy ((CVE - Free Report) ), CNQ offers less torque to commodity prices but greater consistency. That trade-off remains central to the investment debate as the industry navigates an uneven outlook.

Dividend Durability as a Defining Feature

Dividend durability remains Canadian Natural’s strongest differentiator. The company has increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, a record that few global oil producers, including Suncor Energy and Cenovus Energy, can match. Management has already raised the 2025 dividend to an annualized C$2.35 per share, translating into a yield of about 5.1%.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited Image Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited

While Suncor Energy and Cenovus Energy also offer competitive payouts, though less than 4%, CNQ’s long dividend-growth history provides added confidence in income-focused investors heading into 2026. Recent increases have been more modest, reflecting disciplined payout management amid expectations for lower earnings.

CNQ's Cash Returns Supported by Operating Efficiency

Canadian Natural’s ability to sustain cash returns is anchored in operating efficiency. In the third quarter, the company delivered record production of 1.62 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 18.9% year over year. Strong execution across oil sands, thermal and conventional assets supported adjusted funds flow of roughly C$3.9 billion.

Low operating costs continue to separate CNQ from many peers. Oil sands mining and upgrading costs averaged about C$21 per barrel, while thermal in-situ costs were even lower. This cost structure allows the company to fund dividends and buybacks without straining the balance sheet during periods of commodity price volatility.

Shareholder Return Framework Favors Consistency

Capital allocation discipline reinforces CNQ’s income profile. Year to date, the company has returned approximately C$6.2 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Debt reduction remains the priority, followed by buybacks, supporting long-term financial flexibility.

With net debt-to-EBITDA of about 0.9X and liquidity exceeding C$4.3 billion, CNQ enters 2026 from a position of strength. While Suncor Energy and Cenovus Energy have also emphasized shareholder returns, Canadian Natural’s framework favors predictability over aggressive capital deployment, aligning with income-focused strategies.

Valuation Context Versus Canadian Peers

Valuation provides an important context for expectations. CNQ trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 14.55X, slightly above the industry average. The premium reflects stability but limits multiple expansion potential. The stock is less expensive than Suncor Energy, yet remains more highly valued than Cenovus Energy, underscoring the market’s preference for CNQ’s consistency.

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Price performance has mirrored this profile. Canadian Natural touched a 52-week high in early December and is up 7.6% year to date, trailing gains from both Suncor Energy and Cenovus Energy. Investors appear willing to accept lower upside in exchange for income visibility as 2026 approaches.

Industry Positioning Tempers Upside Expectations

Industry conditions continue to cap enthusiasm. CNQ operates within the Oil and Gas — Exploration and Production — Canadian industry, which sits in the bottom 9% of the Zacks Industry Rank. This weak ranking weighs on sentiment for the company.

Earnings trends also remain a headwind. Full-year 2025 earnings per share are projected at $2.51, representing a slight 0.8% decline year over year. In 2026, earnings are expected to fall further to $2.28, a 9.2% decline. While production is forecast to grow modestly, lower pricing assumptions and higher non-cash costs pressure profitability.

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Final Assessment for Income-Focused Portfolios

Canadian Natural Resources remains best suited for investors prioritizing dependable income and balance-sheet strength over rapid growth. Its dividend durability, low-cost asset base and disciplined capital allocation compare favorably with Suncor Energy and Cenovus Energy, even as valuation and earnings trends limit upside into 2026. Based on the overall assessment, Canadian Natural stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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