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Prudent Capital Allocation Strengthens TGT's Long-Term Growth Playbook

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Key Takeaways

  • TGT generated $3.5B in operating cash flow, supported by improved inventory and working capital.
  • Target plans about $4B in FY25 capex, rising to $5B in FY26 for store and category resets.
  • TGT returned $518M to shareholders via dividends and buybacks while maintaining $3.8B in cash.

Target Corporation’s (TGT - Free Report) capital allocation strategy reflects a careful balance between investing for future growth and preserving financial resilience. Despite ongoing softness in discretionary categories, the company continues to demonstrate discipline in managing cash flows, prioritizing returns and maintaining balance-sheet flexibility — key pillars supporting its long-term value creation framework.

Through the first nine months of fiscal 2025, Target generated operating cash flow of $3,485 million, underscoring effective inventory management and easing working-capital pressures. Strong cash flow provides the foundation for funding strategic investments while sustaining shareholder returns without overextending the balance sheet.

Capital expenditures totaled $2,842 million during the same period, aligned with Target’s focus on high-return initiatives. These investments center on store remodels, larger-format locations, technology modernization and expanded fulfillment capabilities. Management reaffirmed full-year capex of roughly $4 billion, signaling consistency in execution. Looking ahead, the company plans to increase capital spending to approximately $5 billion in fiscal 2026 as it prepares for extensive category resets and broader store transformation efforts designed to reinvigorate traffic and productivity.

Importantly, this investment cycle has not come at the expense of shareholder returns. Target continues to prioritize its dividend, returning $518 million to its shareholders in the past nine months of fiscal 2025, alongside $152 million in share repurchases. This reflects confidence in the durability of cash flows and reinforces the company’s long-standing commitment to capital returns.

Overall, Target’s prudent capital allocation approach — anchored in disciplined reinvestment, reliable shareholder returns and financial flexibility — positions the company to navigate near-term volatility while building a stronger platform for sustainable growth. With $3,822 million in cash and cash equivalents at third-quarter end, Target retains ample capacity to execute its strategy while maintaining balance-sheet strength.

WMT & BBY Capital Allocation Strategy Amid TGT Balance-Sheet Strength

Walmart Inc.’s (WMT - Free Report) capital allocation strategy reflects the strength of its cash flow engine and a disciplined balance between reinvestment and shareholder returns. In the first nine months of fiscal 2026, Walmart generated operating cash flow of $27.5 billion and free cash flow of $8.8 billion, supporting investments in automation, technology, store remodels and supply chain enhancements.

Over the same period, Walmart returned significant capital to its shareholders, repurchasing $7 billion of shares and paying $5.6 billion in dividends. With $5.1 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization, the company retains ample financial flexibility to sustain long-term growth and returns.

Best Buy Co., Inc.’s (BBY - Free Report) capital allocation strategy remains disciplined, balancing shareholder returns with continued investment in the business. Best Buy returned $802 million to its shareholders in the past nine months of fiscal 2026 through dividends and share repurchases, underscoring its commitment to capital returns while maintaining balance-sheet flexibility.

At the same time, Best Buy plans approximately $700 million in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, focused on store refreshes, technology platforms and growth initiatives such as marketplace and retail media. This approach reflects a prudent framework that prioritizes long-term value creation without compromising financial resilience.

Target’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

TGT stock has gained 13% in the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 3%.

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Target’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 13.06 reflects a lower valuation than the industry’s average of 29.45. TGT has a Value Score of C.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TGT’s fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 17.7%, while the same for fiscal 2026 indicates growth of 6%. Earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 have been southbound by 13 cents and 37 cents per share, respectively, in the past 60 days.

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Target currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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