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Is Barrick Mining Stock Worth Buying After a 195% Surge in a Year?
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Key Takeaways
B shares jumped 195% in a year, beating industry and S&P 500 gains as gold prices hit record highs.
B is advancing major gold and copper projects like Goldrush, Fourmile, Lumwana and Reko Diq to boost output.
Higher costs and tepid production outlook may weigh on margins despite strong earnings forecasts.
Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares skyrocketed 195.1% in the past year, largely driven by the record upside in gold prices amid geopolitical tensions and economic and trade-related uncertainties. Gold prices soared to the moon last year, backed by uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade tariffs, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weaker greenback and increased purchases by central banks.
Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 139.6% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 16.9% in the past year. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have rallied 174.5%, 200.7% and 120.5%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The B stock broke out above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025. Barrick is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
B Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Key Projects to Drive Production Upside for Barrick
Barrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects, which should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are underway. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production.
The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program, which shows significant resource growth potential. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028.
Moreover, the $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at its Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually.
Barrick’s Strong Liquidity & Attractive Dividend Bode Well
Barrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of third-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $5 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.4 billion in the quarter, up 105% year over year. Free cash flow surged to around $1.5 billion in the same quarter from $444 million in the prior-year quarter.
Barrick returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases. Barrick’s board, in February 2025, authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. It repurchased shares worth $1 billion under this program during the first nine months of 2025, including $589 million in the third quarter.
Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.6% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 32% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.8%.
Surging Gold Prices to Drive B’s Margins and Cash Flow
Rallying gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick. Gold prices have seen an unprecedented rally in 2025, mainly attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies.
Prices of the yellow metal rocketed roughly 65% last year, and are currently hovering above $4,400 per ton. Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction and hopes of more rate cuts amid signs of U.S. economic weakness and concerns over the labor market also contributed to the record upswing in bullion prices. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the December FOMC meeting, marking the third rate cut of the year, but signaled a potential pause in future reductions.
Increased purchases by central banks, expectations of more rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to help the yellow metal sustain the uptick in gold prices. Escalating geopolitical tensions triggered by the U.S.-Venezuela conflict have also led to the recent surge in bullion prices. All these factors are likely to continue to provide a favorable setup for more upside in gold prices this year.
Higher Production Costs Weigh on Barrick
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 3% and 2% year over year, respectively, in the third quarter, although declining from the previous quarter. AISC of $1,538 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the rise in its unit costs. Barrick’s consolidated gold production fell 12% year over year to 829,000 ounces in the third quarter.
For 2025, Barrick continues to see total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges.
Tepid Production View Mar B’s Prospects
The company expects attributable gold production in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is temporarily suspended. While a potential restart of the mine would provide an upside, this projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is projected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix. Lower production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance.
Barrick’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 79.4% and 51.4%, respectively.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation Looks Attractive for B Stock
B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 12.84X, a roughly 4.7% discount to the industry’s average of 13.47X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle and Newmont and a premium to Kinross Gold. Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Newmont and Agnico Eagle have a Value Score of C and D, respectively.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should Investors Play the B Stock?
Barrick’s efforts to enhance production, its solid financial position, healthy earnings outlook, appealing valuation and reliable dividend yield present a favorable setup. Rising gold prices should further support profitability and strengthen cash flow. However, elevated costs and a soft production outlook call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
Image: Bigstock
Is Barrick Mining Stock Worth Buying After a 195% Surge in a Year?
Key Takeaways
Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares skyrocketed 195.1% in the past year, largely driven by the record upside in gold prices amid geopolitical tensions and economic and trade-related uncertainties. Gold prices soared to the moon last year, backed by uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade tariffs, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weaker greenback and increased purchases by central banks.
Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 139.6% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 16.9% in the past year. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have rallied 174.5%, 200.7% and 120.5%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-year Price Performance
The B stock broke out above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025. Barrick is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
B Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Key Projects to Drive Production Upside for Barrick
Barrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects, which should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are underway. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production.
The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program, which shows significant resource growth potential. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028.
Moreover, the $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at its Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually.
Barrick’s Strong Liquidity & Attractive Dividend Bode Well
Barrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of third-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $5 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.4 billion in the quarter, up 105% year over year. Free cash flow surged to around $1.5 billion in the same quarter from $444 million in the prior-year quarter.
Barrick returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases. Barrick’s board, in February 2025, authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. It repurchased shares worth $1 billion under this program during the first nine months of 2025, including $589 million in the third quarter.
Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.6% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 32% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.8%.
Surging Gold Prices to Drive B’s Margins and Cash Flow
Rallying gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick. Gold prices have seen an unprecedented rally in 2025, mainly attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies.
Prices of the yellow metal rocketed roughly 65% last year, and are currently hovering above $4,400 per ton. Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction and hopes of more rate cuts amid signs of U.S. economic weakness and concerns over the labor market also contributed to the record upswing in bullion prices. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the December FOMC meeting, marking the third rate cut of the year, but signaled a potential pause in future reductions.
Increased purchases by central banks, expectations of more rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to help the yellow metal sustain the uptick in gold prices. Escalating geopolitical tensions triggered by the U.S.-Venezuela conflict have also led to the recent surge in bullion prices. All these factors are likely to continue to provide a favorable setup for more upside in gold prices this year.
Higher Production Costs Weigh on Barrick
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 3% and 2% year over year, respectively, in the third quarter, although declining from the previous quarter. AISC of $1,538 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the rise in its unit costs. Barrick’s consolidated gold production fell 12% year over year to 829,000 ounces in the third quarter.
For 2025, Barrick continues to see total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges.
Tepid Production View Mar B’s Prospects
The company expects attributable gold production in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is temporarily suspended. While a potential restart of the mine would provide an upside, this projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is projected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix. Lower production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance.
Barrick’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 79.4% and 51.4%, respectively.
Valuation Looks Attractive for B Stock
B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 12.84X, a roughly 4.7% discount to the industry’s average of 13.47X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle and Newmont and a premium to Kinross Gold. Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Newmont and Agnico Eagle have a Value Score of C and D, respectively.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC
How Should Investors Play the B Stock?
Barrick’s efforts to enhance production, its solid financial position, healthy earnings outlook, appealing valuation and reliable dividend yield present a favorable setup. Rising gold prices should further support profitability and strengthen cash flow. However, elevated costs and a soft production outlook call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.