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ASML Stock Rises 58.2% in 6 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?

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Key Takeaways

  • ASML shares surged 58.2% in six months and now trade above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
  • AI-driven advanced chips boost ASML's EUV systems, relied on by TSMC, Samsung and Intel.
  • Management sees 2025 sales up about 15%, but flags macro risks and competitive challenges.

ASML Holding (ASML - Free Report) shares have surged 58.2% in the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 19%. Given this outperformance in the share price, the question remains: Should the investors buy, sell or hold the shares of this semiconductor manufacturing equipment player?

ASML 6-Month Performance Chart

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ASML’s 50-Day & 200-Day SMAs Show Bullish Trend

This surge in the stock price has led ASML’s shares to trade above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), indicating a bullish trend.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ASML Capitalizes on Growing AI Semiconductor Demand

AI-driven semiconductor demand is on the rise as global enterprises move toward an AI future. For ASML, the AI-trend has become the primary growth driver as customers demand semiconductor manufacturing equipment for logic and memory chips for AI workloads, high bandwidth memory and DDR5, keeping system demand structurally strong.

Since ASML holds a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology crucial for the world’s most advanced chips at 3nm and below, it benefits from extraordinary pricing power and strategic importance. Major customers like TSMC, Samsung and Intel rely on ASML’s systems to stay ahead in chip innovation.

ASML’s venture into sub-2nm production with High Numerical Aperture (High-NA) EUV systems is the next technological leap for chipmakers. This technology will provide ASML with long-term potential as the industry moves toward denser and more efficient chips. ASML’s High-NA machines will be central to that shift.

These factors will drive ASML’s top line. For the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML Holding expects revenues to be between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, a 26.3% sequential increase at the midpoint. For full-year 2025, management projects sales to improve around 15%, with margins of nearly 52%, showing sustained demand for ASML’s products.

ASML Faces Macroeconomic and Competitive Challenges

ASML faces direct challenges from the ongoing trade tensions, policy unpredictability, and geopolitical developments affecting its customers’ visibility and confidence, particularly around long-term capital expenditure decisions. ASML’s management accepted that they cannot ascertain its growth for 2026 in the given situation.

The company also faces competitive challenges from players like Applied Materials (AMAT - Free Report) , Lam Research (LRCX - Free Report) and KLA Corporation (KLAC - Free Report) . Although ASML is the only company providing EUV lithography tools, it operates in a broader ecosystem of semiconductor equipment makers that are also transitioning to 2nm with their respective technology.

Applied Materials supplies equipment used in chip fabrication, including deposition and etching tools that are essential for both advanced and mature nodes. As chips become more complex with AI and high-performance workloads, Applied Materials’ tools aid in designing and making efficient and smaller node chips.

KLA Corporation specializes in process control, inspection and metrology systems. KLA Corporation’s equipment helps chipmakers monitor and improve yield during manufacturing. Lam Research competes in the memory space. Lam Research’s memory segment, accounting for both Dynamic Random Access Memory and Non-Volatile Memory divisions, is gaining traction on the back of AI.

Furthermore, ASML expects its China business to normalize after two years of extraordinary growth. This will cause a decline in revenues from this direction. Closely linked to China’s normalization, ASML expects its deep UV business to decline in 2026, since China has been a major end market for immersion and mainstream lithography tools.

ASML Shares are Overvalued

ASML stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) of 40.78X compared with the sector average of 23.19X, which makes it overvalued at present, as suggested by the Zacks Value Score of F.

ASML Forward 12-Month (P/E) Valuation Chart

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion: Hold ASML For Now

ASML Holding’s strong presence in EUV and emerging High-NA lithography, combined with surging AI-related chip demand, makes it a stock worth keeping under watch. However, strong competition in the broader category, macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges raise near-term concerns. Considering these factors, we suggest investors to retain this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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