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Freeport-McMoRan Up 30% in 3 Months: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Freeport shares jumped 30.1% in three months, beating the industry and the S&P 500 gains.
FCX is benefiting from copper hitting record highs amid tight supply, tariff worries and solid demand.
FCX faces margin pressure as unit cash costs rise and copper volumes drop after the Grasberg mine incident.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s (FCX - Free Report) shares have popped 30.1% in the past three months, thanks largely to a rally in copper prices to fresh highs, supported by tightening global supply, lingering uncertainty around potential U.S. trade tariffs and solid demand.
Freeport has outperformed the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 22.3% and the S&P 500’s increase of 4% over the same period. Its peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) , have gained 19.3% and 13.9%, respectively, in the same time.
Freeport’s 3-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX has been trading above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-day SMA since late November 2025. Following a golden crossover on July 8, 2025, the 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
FCX Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at FCX’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
FCX’s Growth Actions to Expand Capacity & Drive Production
Freeport is well-placed with high-quality copper assets and remains focused on strong execution and advancing its organic growth opportunities. At its Cerro Verde operation in Peru, a large-scale concentrator expansion provided incremental annual production of around 600 million pounds of copper and 15 million pounds of molybdenum. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.
FCX is also conducting pre-feasibility studies (expected to be completed in 2026) in the Safford/Lone Star operations in Arizona to define a significant sulfide expansion opportunity. It also has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona to more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation.
Also, PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) substantially completed the construction of the new greenfield smelter in Eastern Java during 2024, with the start-up of operations having commenced in the second quarter of 2025. The first production of copper anode was achieved in July 2025. PT-FI is also developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence before 2030. Gold production also started at the new precious metals refinery in late 2024. Plans are in place to transition PT-FI’s existing energy source from coal to natural gas, which is expected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions at Grasberg.
FCX’s Solid Financial Health & Capital Discipline Bode Well
FCX has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to finance its growth projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It generated operating cash flows of around $1.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Freeport ended the third quarter with strong liquidity, including $4.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.
At the end of the third quarter, Freeport had a net debt of $1.7 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027. Its long-term debt-to-capitalization is around 22.7% compared with 39.1% for Southern Copper and 29.3% for BHP Group.
FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.5% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 19% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
Rallying Copper Prices Augur Well for Freeport
Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, have been volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. Prices, for the most part, remained above $5 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Copper prices have gained momentum lately, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data-center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Meanwhile, worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand are lifting the red metal.
In China, demand continues to be supported by EV adoption and energy infrastructure build-outs, while an AI-driven investment surge has lifted consumption in the United States. Meanwhile, the threat of U.S. tariffs on refined metals has pushed traders to redirect shipments into the country, tightening supply. Supply risks have also grown amid worries over lower output and potential disruptions at major global mining operations. COMEX copper hit an all-time high of around $6 on Jan. 6, 2026, fueled by tariff and supply concerns amid solid demand. LME copper also surged past $13,000 per ton, hitting a record high with the three-month price closing at $13,238 per ton on Tuesday.
Freeport’s average realized copper price climbed nearly 9% year over year to $4.68 per pound in the third quarter, driving its top and bottom lines. Favorable prices are expected to continue to support its performance.
Higher Unit Costs May Hurt FCX’s Margins
FCX saw an increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the third quarter of 2025 to $1.40 from $1.13 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 24% spike. The increase was fueled by a decline in copper sales volumes.
Freeport's outlook for the fourth quarter suggests significantly higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.47 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.68. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to impact costs in the quarter. Higher costs are likely to weigh on the company's margins.
Lower Expected Volumes a Drag on FCX’s Prospects
Freeport’s copper sales volumes also fell approximately 6% year over year in the third quarter to 977 million pounds. The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025, which led to the suspension of operations.
Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 635 million pounds, indicating a 35% sequential and a 36% year-over-year decline. The company has also issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting significant sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line in the fourth quarter.
FCX’s Earnings Estimates Going Up
Freeport’s earnings estimates have been going up over the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has been revised up over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at FCX’s Valuation
FCX is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 28.07X, a 15.4% premium to the industry average of 24.32X. The FCX stock is also trading at a premium to Southern Copper and BHP Group.
FCX’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, SCCO and BHP
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should Investors Play FCX Stock?
FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value. Surging copper prices and healthy dividend growth are the other positives. Despite these positives, a weaker sales volume outlook and higher expected unit costs warrant caution. The company’s stretched valuation also might not offer an attractive entry point at this time. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
Image: Bigstock
Freeport-McMoRan Up 30% in 3 Months: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s (FCX - Free Report) shares have popped 30.1% in the past three months, thanks largely to a rally in copper prices to fresh highs, supported by tightening global supply, lingering uncertainty around potential U.S. trade tariffs and solid demand.
Freeport has outperformed the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 22.3% and the S&P 500’s increase of 4% over the same period. Its peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) , have gained 19.3% and 13.9%, respectively, in the same time.
Freeport’s 3-Month Price Performance
FCX has been trading above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-day SMA since late November 2025. Following a golden crossover on July 8, 2025, the 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.
FCX Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at FCX’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.
FCX’s Growth Actions to Expand Capacity & Drive Production
Freeport is well-placed with high-quality copper assets and remains focused on strong execution and advancing its organic growth opportunities. At its Cerro Verde operation in Peru, a large-scale concentrator expansion provided incremental annual production of around 600 million pounds of copper and 15 million pounds of molybdenum. It has completed the evaluation of a large-scale expansion at El Abra in Chile to define a large sulfide resource that could potentially support a major mill project similar to the large-scale concentrator at Cerro Verde, with an estimated resource of approximately 20 billion recoverable pounds of copper.
FCX is also conducting pre-feasibility studies (expected to be completed in 2026) in the Safford/Lone Star operations in Arizona to define a significant sulfide expansion opportunity. It also has expansion opportunities at Bagdad in Arizona to more than double the concentrator capacity of the operation.
Also, PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FI) substantially completed the construction of the new greenfield smelter in Eastern Java during 2024, with the start-up of operations having commenced in the second quarter of 2025. The first production of copper anode was achieved in July 2025. PT-FI is also developing the Kucing Liar ore body within the Grasberg district with a targeted ramp-up to commence before 2030. Gold production also started at the new precious metals refinery in late 2024. Plans are in place to transition PT-FI’s existing energy source from coal to natural gas, which is expected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions at Grasberg.
FCX’s Solid Financial Health & Capital Discipline Bode Well
FCX has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to finance its growth projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. It generated operating cash flows of around $1.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Freeport ended the third quarter with strong liquidity, including $4.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $3 billion in availability under the FCX revolving credit facility, and $1.5 billion in availability under the PT-FI credit facility.
At the end of the third quarter, Freeport had a net debt of $1.7 billion, excluding PTFI’s new downstream processing facilities. Its net debt is below its targeted range of $3-$4 billion. Freeport has a policy of distributing 50% of the available cash to shareholders and the balance to either reduce debt or invest in growth projects. FCX has no significant debt maturities until 2027. Its long-term debt-to-capitalization is around 22.7% compared with 39.1% for Southern Copper and 29.3% for BHP Group.
FCX offers a dividend yield of roughly 0.5% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 19% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable.
Rallying Copper Prices Augur Well for Freeport
Prices of copper, the backbone of electrification, have been volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. Prices, for the most part, remained above $5 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Copper prices have gained momentum lately, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data-center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Meanwhile, worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand are lifting the red metal.
In China, demand continues to be supported by EV adoption and energy infrastructure build-outs, while an AI-driven investment surge has lifted consumption in the United States. Meanwhile, the threat of U.S. tariffs on refined metals has pushed traders to redirect shipments into the country, tightening supply. Supply risks have also grown amid worries over lower output and potential disruptions at major global mining operations. COMEX copper hit an all-time high of around $6 on Jan. 6, 2026, fueled by tariff and supply concerns amid solid demand. LME copper also surged past $13,000 per ton, hitting a record high with the three-month price closing at $13,238 per ton on Tuesday.
Freeport’s average realized copper price climbed nearly 9% year over year to $4.68 per pound in the third quarter, driving its top and bottom lines. Favorable prices are expected to continue to support its performance.
Higher Unit Costs May Hurt FCX’s Margins
FCX saw an increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the third quarter of 2025 to $1.40 from $1.13 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 24% spike. The increase was fueled by a decline in copper sales volumes.
Freeport's outlook for the fourth quarter suggests significantly higher costs on a sequential basis. It expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.47 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.68. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to impact costs in the quarter. Higher costs are likely to weigh on the company's margins.
Lower Expected Volumes a Drag on FCX’s Prospects
Freeport’s copper sales volumes also fell approximately 6% year over year in the third quarter to 977 million pounds. The downside primarily resulted from the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025, which led to the suspension of operations.
Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the Grasberg mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 635 million pounds, indicating a 35% sequential and a 36% year-over-year decline. The company has also issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting significant sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to weigh on its top line in the fourth quarter.
FCX’s Earnings Estimates Going Up
Freeport’s earnings estimates have been going up over the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has been revised up over the same time frame.
A Look at FCX’s Valuation
FCX is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 28.07X, a 15.4% premium to the industry average of 24.32X. The FCX stock is also trading at a premium to Southern Copper and BHP Group.
FCX’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, SCCO and BHP
How Should Investors Play FCX Stock?
FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value. Surging copper prices and healthy dividend growth are the other positives. Despite these positives, a weaker sales volume outlook and higher expected unit costs warrant caution. The company’s stretched valuation also might not offer an attractive entry point at this time. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.