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XOM Warns of Q4 Upstream Earnings Hit Over Lower Liquids Prices
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Key Takeaways
XOM says lower liquids prices could cut Q4 upstream earnings by $800M-$1.2B versus the third quarter.
XOM notes gas price changes may swing results from a $300M loss to a $100M gain sequentially.
XOM expects Energy and Specialty gains, while Chemical margins could trim $200M-$400M versus Q3 2025.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) , an integrated energy giant, has provided an update regarding its fourth-quarter results in a recent SEC filing. The company has stated that the decline in liquids prices may have a negative impact of nearly $800 million to $1.2 billion on its upstream earnings compared to the third quarter. XOM has also mentioned that changes in gas prices, which include the impact of shifts in natural gas realizations, may result in a swing ranging from a negative $300 million to a positive $100 million on a sequential basis.
For Energy Products, XOM estimates that changes in industry margins are expected to have a positive impact of nearly $300-$700 million, whereas for Specialty Products, the company expects to add up to $200 million in incremental earnings compared with the third quarter. Notably, the changes in industry margins signify the estimated impact of market and margin movements on crude and petroleum products, specialty basestocks and chemicals applicable to prior period volumes, inclusive of trading effects. For Chemical Products, the company estimates a negative impact of $200-$400 million due to the changes in industry margins compared to Q3 2025.
The integrated energy company earns a major portion of its earnings through the Upstream business. The West Texas Intermediate crude price has dropped significantly in 2025 compared with 2024, and at present, crude oil prices continue to trade below the $60 per barrel mark. The negative impact on the upstream segment due to changes in liquids and gas prices is anticipated to weigh down on the company’s fourth-quarter results. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, XOM is expected to report earnings of $1.63 per share in the fourth quarter and revenues of $85.13 billion.
Subsea7 helps build underwater oil and gas fields. It is a leading player in the global offshore energy industry, providing engineering, construction and related services at offshore oil and gas fields. The long-term outlook for energy demand remains positive, and Subsea7’s focus on cost-efficient deepwater projects strengthens the position of its subsea business.
Oceaneering International delivers integrated technology solutions across all stages of the offshore oilfield lifecycle. The company is a leading provider of offshore equipment and technology solutions to the energy industry. OII’s proven ability to deliver innovative, integrated solutions supports ongoing client retention and new business opportunities, ensuring steady revenue growth.
FuelCell Energy is a clean energy company offering low-carbon energy solutions. It produces power using flexible fuel sources such as biogas, natural gas and hydrogen. The company designs fuel cells that generate electricity through an electrochemical process that combines fuel with air, reducing carbon emissions and minimizing the environmental impact of power generation. As such, FCEL is anticipated to play a crucial role in the energy transition by enabling industries and communities to shift from traditional fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.
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XOM Warns of Q4 Upstream Earnings Hit Over Lower Liquids Prices
Key Takeaways
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) , an integrated energy giant, has provided an update regarding its fourth-quarter results in a recent SEC filing. The company has stated that the decline in liquids prices may have a negative impact of nearly $800 million to $1.2 billion on its upstream earnings compared to the third quarter. XOM has also mentioned that changes in gas prices, which include the impact of shifts in natural gas realizations, may result in a swing ranging from a negative $300 million to a positive $100 million on a sequential basis.
For Energy Products, XOM estimates that changes in industry margins are expected to have a positive impact of nearly $300-$700 million, whereas for Specialty Products, the company expects to add up to $200 million in incremental earnings compared with the third quarter. Notably, the changes in industry margins signify the estimated impact of market and margin movements on crude and petroleum products, specialty basestocks and chemicals applicable to prior period volumes, inclusive of trading effects. For Chemical Products, the company estimates a negative impact of $200-$400 million due to the changes in industry margins compared to Q3 2025.
The integrated energy company earns a major portion of its earnings through the Upstream business. The West Texas Intermediate crude price has dropped significantly in 2025 compared with 2024, and at present, crude oil prices continue to trade below the $60 per barrel mark. The negative impact on the upstream segment due to changes in liquids and gas prices is anticipated to weigh down on the company’s fourth-quarter results. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, XOM is expected to report earnings of $1.63 per share in the fourth quarter and revenues of $85.13 billion.
XOM’s Zacks Rank and Key Picks
XOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some top-ranked stocks from the energy sector are Subsea7 S.A. (SUBCY - Free Report) , Oceaneering International (OII - Free Report) and FuelCell Energy (FCEL - Free Report) . While Subsea7 currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Oceaneering and FuelCell carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Subsea7 helps build underwater oil and gas fields. It is a leading player in the global offshore energy industry, providing engineering, construction and related services at offshore oil and gas fields. The long-term outlook for energy demand remains positive, and Subsea7’s focus on cost-efficient deepwater projects strengthens the position of its subsea business.
Oceaneering International delivers integrated technology solutions across all stages of the offshore oilfield lifecycle. The company is a leading provider of offshore equipment and technology solutions to the energy industry. OII’s proven ability to deliver innovative, integrated solutions supports ongoing client retention and new business opportunities, ensuring steady revenue growth.
FuelCell Energy is a clean energy company offering low-carbon energy solutions. It produces power using flexible fuel sources such as biogas, natural gas and hydrogen. The company designs fuel cells that generate electricity through an electrochemical process that combines fuel with air, reducing carbon emissions and minimizing the environmental impact of power generation. As such, FCEL is anticipated to play a crucial role in the energy transition by enabling industries and communities to shift from traditional fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.