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Inflows, AUM Growth Likely to Support BlackRock's Q4 Earnings
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Key Takeaways
BlackRock to report 4Q25 results on Jan. 15, with revenues and earnings expected to improve y/y.
BLK's AUM hit a record $13.46T in Q3 on net inflows, with spot crypto ETFs and acquisitions supporting growth.
BLK's revenue lines are set to rise on inflows, while expenses increase amid restructuring and acquisitions.
BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Jan. 15, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have improved year over year.
BLK’s third-quarter 2025 earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results benefited from a rise in revenues. Assets under management (AUM) witnessed robust growth and touched a record high of $13.46 trillion, driven by net inflows.
BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 8%.
Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted BlackRock’s performance.
Key Factors to Note & Q4 Estimates for BLK
AUM: BlackRock is a dominant player in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, given its continued investments in the U.S. iShare core ETFs (offering more than 1,400 ETFs globally). Supported by its diversified offerings and a strong revenue mix, the company has been witnessing consistent AUM growth over the past several quarters. Growth is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by steady inflows.
The approval and listing of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs, along with the acquisitions of ElmTree and HPS Investment Partners, are likely to have further contributed to AUM growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fourth-quarter AUM is pegged at $13.99 trillion, indicating a year-over-year jump of 21.1%. Our estimate for AUM is $14.06 trillion.
Revenue Components: BlackRock is expected to have recorded growth in its investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues on improving inflows and latest offerings. The consensus estimate for the metric is $5.30 billion, implying a 19.9% year-over-year rise. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $5.24 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $478 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 6%. Our estimate for the same is $306.1 million.
The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $372 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 15.5%. We project the metric to be $377.4 million. The consensus estimate for technology services revenues is pegged at $529 million, implying a 23.6% year-over-year rise. We project the metric to increase to $537.6 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory and other revenues is pegged at $65 million, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.2%. We project the metric to be $71.1 million.
Expenses: BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Overall costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter, given that the company has been continuing its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce and improve operating efficiency. Also, its inorganic expansion efforts are likely to have increased expenses.
Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $4.40 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 22.1%.
BlackRock expects a low-teen percentage increase in 2025 core G&A expenses, with the onboarding of Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin and HPS as the main driver of the year-over-year core G&A increase.
What Our Model Unveils for BlackRock
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BLK beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -0.83%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of $12.41 per share has been revised 1.1% lower over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a 4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $47.37, which indicates 8.6% year-over-year growth.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $6.75 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 18.8%. The estimate for full-year sales is $23.97 billion, indicating a rise of 17.5% from the previous year.
Finance Stocks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of finance stocks, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 16. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been unchanged at $2.82 over the past week.
Image: Bigstock
Inflows, AUM Growth Likely to Support BlackRock's Q4 Earnings
Key Takeaways
BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Jan. 15, before the opening bell. Its quarterly revenues and earnings are expected to have improved year over year.
BLK’s third-quarter 2025 earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results benefited from a rise in revenues. Assets under management (AUM) witnessed robust growth and touched a record high of $13.46 trillion, driven by net inflows.
BlackRock has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 8%.
BlackRock Price and EPS Surprise
BlackRock price-eps-surprise | BlackRock Quote
Before we take a look at what our quantitative model predicts for the to-be-reported quarter, let us check the factors that are likely to have impacted BlackRock’s performance.
Key Factors to Note & Q4 Estimates for BLK
AUM: BlackRock is a dominant player in the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, given its continued investments in the U.S. iShare core ETFs (offering more than 1,400 ETFs globally). Supported by its diversified offerings and a strong revenue mix, the company has been witnessing consistent AUM growth over the past several quarters. Growth is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by steady inflows.
The approval and listing of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs, along with the acquisitions of ElmTree and HPS Investment Partners, are likely to have further contributed to AUM growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fourth-quarter AUM is pegged at $13.99 trillion, indicating a year-over-year jump of 21.1%. Our estimate for AUM is $14.06 trillion.
Revenue Components: BlackRock is expected to have recorded growth in its investment advisory, administration fees and securities-lending revenues on improving inflows and latest offerings. The consensus estimate for the metric is $5.30 billion, implying a 19.9% year-over-year rise. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $5.24 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment advisory performance fees is pegged at $478 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 6%. Our estimate for the same is $306.1 million.
The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $372 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 15.5%. We project the metric to be $377.4 million. The consensus estimate for technology services revenues is pegged at $529 million, implying a 23.6% year-over-year rise. We project the metric to increase to $537.6 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for advisory and other revenues is pegged at $65 million, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 10.2%. We project the metric to be $71.1 million.
Expenses: BlackRock’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Overall costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter, given that the company has been continuing its restructuring initiatives to modify the size and shape of its workforce and improve operating efficiency. Also, its inorganic expansion efforts are likely to have increased expenses.
Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $4.40 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 22.1%.
BlackRock expects a low-teen percentage increase in 2025 core G&A expenses, with the onboarding of Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin and HPS as the main driver of the year-over-year core G&A increase.
What Our Model Unveils for BlackRock
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BLK beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BlackRock is -0.83%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of $12.41 per share has been revised 1.1% lower over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a 4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $47.37, which indicates 8.6% year-over-year growth.
The consensus estimate for quarterly sales is pegged at $6.75 billion, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 18.8%. The estimate for full-year sales is $23.97 billion, indicating a rise of 17.5% from the previous year.
Finance Stocks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of finance stocks, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases:
State Street (STT - Free Report) is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 16. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for State Street have been unchanged at $2.82 over the past week.
The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is +1.20% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KeyCorp’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 38 cents per share.