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Rio Tinto Climbs 38.5% in 6 Months: Should Investors Ride the Rally?
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Key Takeaways
RIO's consolidated copper output rose 10% YoY in Q3, tracking toward the high end of its 2025 guidance.
RIO reached first copper at Johnson Camp using Nuton, targeting 30,000 tons over four years.
RIO saw iron ore shipments rise 6% QoQ as aluminum and alumina output increased on improved operations.
Rio Tinto Group (RIO - Free Report) shares have jumped 38.5% in the past six months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500, which have returned 19.3% and 14.1%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers like NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) and TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC - Free Report) have gained 16.3% and 2.7%, respectively, over the same time frame.
RIO Outperforms Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Closing at $82.88 in the last trading session, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $85.46 and significantly higher than its 52-week low of $51.67. It is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
RIO Stock’s 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Averages
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at RIO’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Performance
Rio Tinto continues to benefit from rising copper production, driven by strong operational performance across its assets. The company’s consolidated copper output increased 10% year over year in the third quarter of 2025.
RIO’s growth pipeline is progressing at a steady pace. In December 2025, the company achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona using its proprietary Nuton technology. This marks a significant milestone, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.
The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. Through Nuton, RIO aims to deliver the lowest-carbon copper production footprint in the United States at this site.
Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. Its total copper production in 2025 is expected to have reached the higher end of its guidance (780-850 kt).
In the third quarter, RIO’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara showed improvement, with shipments rising 6% from the previous quarter. The aluminum and lithium production also delivered encouraging results. Bauxite production increased 9% year over year in the third quarter, driven by higher utilization rates at the Amrun project. RIO’s alumina and aluminum output rose 7% and 6%, respectively, in the quarter, on a year-over-year basis, as refinery and smelter operations improved.
Several major growth projects of the company are progressing as well. In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is expected to conclude in 2029. Also, in October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported, marking the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure.
Despite the overall solid performance, the company faced some challenges during the quarter. Weather-related disruptions earlier in the year affected iron ore volumes. Planned maintenance activities at some copper mining projects temporarily reduced output, while cost pressures from inflation and higher sustaining capital spending impacted margins.
RIO operates in the mineral exploration and mining markets, which include major industry players like NioCorp Developments and TMC.
RIO’s Estimate Revisions
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s bottom line for 2026 has increased 10.1% in the past 60 days.
Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Rio Tinto is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.71X compared with the industry’s average of 16.87X. In comparison, NioCorp Developments and TMC are trading at negative 13.11X and negative 30.96X, respectively.
Conclusion
Despite few challenges such as weather disruptions, planned maintenance and cost pressures, the steady advancement of Rio Tinto’s growth projects supports a positive long-term outlook. Rising copper production, progress at key iron ore developments and improving aluminum and lithium operations position the company well for long-term growth, creating an attractive opportunity for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Rio Tinto Climbs 38.5% in 6 Months: Should Investors Ride the Rally?
Key Takeaways
Rio Tinto Group (RIO - Free Report) shares have jumped 38.5% in the past six months, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500, which have returned 19.3% and 14.1%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers like NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB - Free Report) and TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC - Free Report) have gained 16.3% and 2.7%, respectively, over the same time frame.
RIO Outperforms Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Closing at $82.88 in the last trading session, the stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $85.46 and significantly higher than its 52-week low of $51.67. It is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating solid upward momentum and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
RIO Stock’s 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Averages
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at RIO’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Factors Driving Rio Tinto’s Performance
Rio Tinto continues to benefit from rising copper production, driven by strong operational performance across its assets. The company’s consolidated copper output increased 10% year over year in the third quarter of 2025.
RIO’s growth pipeline is progressing at a steady pace. In December 2025, the company achieved its first copper production at the Johnson Camp mine in Arizona using its proprietary Nuton technology. This marks a significant milestone, as Nuton enables cleaner, faster and more efficient copper recovery at an industrial scale.
The Johnson Camp deployment includes the design and delivery of a heap leach technology package, targeting approximately 30,000 tons of refined copper over a four-year demonstration period. Through Nuton, RIO aims to deliver the lowest-carbon copper production footprint in the United States at this site.
Also, the company is actively collaborating with U.S. customers to strengthen the domestic copper supply. Its total copper production in 2025 is expected to have reached the higher end of its guidance (780-850 kt).
In the third quarter, RIO’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara showed improvement, with shipments rising 6% from the previous quarter. The aluminum and lithium production also delivered encouraging results. Bauxite production increased 9% year over year in the third quarter, driven by higher utilization rates at the Amrun project. RIO’s alumina and aluminum output rose 7% and 6%, respectively, in the quarter, on a year-over-year basis, as refinery and smelter operations improved.
Several major growth projects of the company are progressing as well. In December 2025, RIO’s Rhodes Ridge joint venture approved a $191 million feasibility study to develop one of the world’s major undeveloped iron ore deposits in Western Australia, aiming for an initial annual production of 40-50 million tons. The study is expected to conclude in 2029. Also, in October 2025, at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the first ore was loaded and transported, marking the start of commissioning across the mine, rail and port infrastructure.
Despite the overall solid performance, the company faced some challenges during the quarter. Weather-related disruptions earlier in the year affected iron ore volumes. Planned maintenance activities at some copper mining projects temporarily reduced output, while cost pressures from inflation and higher sustaining capital spending impacted margins.
RIO operates in the mineral exploration and mining markets, which include major industry players like NioCorp Developments and TMC.
RIO’s Estimate Revisions
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIO’s bottom line for 2026 has increased 10.1% in the past 60 days.
Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Rio Tinto is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.71X compared with the industry’s average of 16.87X. In comparison, NioCorp Developments and TMC are trading at negative 13.11X and negative 30.96X, respectively.
Conclusion
Despite few challenges such as weather disruptions, planned maintenance and cost pressures, the steady advancement of Rio Tinto’s growth projects supports a positive long-term outlook. Rising copper production, progress at key iron ore developments and improving aluminum and lithium operations position the company well for long-term growth, creating an attractive opportunity for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.