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Higher NII & Loan Growth to Aid MTB's Q4 Earnings, High Costs to Hurt
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Key Takeaways
MTB is set to report Q4 results on Jan. 16, with revenue and earnings expected to rise year over year.
M&T Bank expects Q4 NII near $1.8B, aided by solid loan demand and growth in interest-earning assets.
MTB's results may be pressured by elevated operating expenses tied to ongoing franchise investments.
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 16, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have registered year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s results were supported by higher net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with modest loan growth. However, lower deposits, higher provisions for credit losses, and elevated expenses acted as a headwind.
Quarterly earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average earnings surprise being 5.42%.
Loans & NII: The overall lending environment remained healthy in the fourth quarter of 2025. Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial, real estate, and consumer loans stayed solid during the quarter. This is likely to have supported MTB’s lending activity and average interest-earning assets growth in the to-be-reported period.
The company expects average loan and lease balances to be between $137 billion and $138 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $136.5 billion reported in the third quarter of 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $192.3 billion, indicating a nearly 1% increase from the prior-quarter reported figure.
The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates twice during the fourth quarter, following a 25-basis-point cut in September. With the benchmark rate now in the 3.50–3.75% range, funding and deposit costs have eased. As such, M&T Bank’s NII is expected to have seen modest sequential growth in the reported quarter.
Management expects net interest income (on a tax-equivalent basis) to be approximately $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 2.2% from the prior quarter. Net interest margin is expected to remain in the mid-to-high 3.70% range, slightly above the 3.68% reported in the prior quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is the same as the company guidance, indicating a 1.1% increase from the prior quarter’s reported number.
Fee Income: MTB’s average total deposits are expected to have remained relatively stable in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is expected to have provided some support to revenues from service charges on deposit accounts.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $148.1 million, indicating a 5.1% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates declined meaningfully in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the levels seen earlier in the year, mainly driven by the Fed’s monetary policy easing. Lower mortgage rates supported refinancing activity and growth of origination volumes in the quarter. Hence, MTB’s mortgage banking income is expected to have positively impacted the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $149.8 million, indicating a 1.9% rise from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The consensus estimate for brokerage services income of $33.1 million indicates a 2.5% decline from that reported in the third quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust income of $185.2 million indicates an increase of 2.3% sequentially.
The company expects non-interest income to be in the range of $670 million to $690 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from $752 million reported in the third quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $679.2 million, indicating a 9.7% decline from the prior quarter’s actual.
Expenses: MTB’s expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting continued investments in strengthening its franchise.
Management expects GAAP expenses, including intangible amortization, to be in the range of $1.35–$1.37 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with $1.36 billion reported in the prior quarter.
Asset quality: M&T Bank is less likely to have set aside a significantly higher amount for potential delinquent loans in the fourth quarter of 2025, as interest rates have eased meaningfully from the earlier highs of 5–5.25%.
Management expects the net charge-off (NCO) rate to be in the range of 40–50 basis points, compared with 42 basis points in the third quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) is pegged at $1.51 billion, indicating a sequential decline of 2.3%.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MTB
Per our proven model, the chances of M&T Bank beating estimates this time are high. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP:The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is +0.54%.
Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised downward to $4.44 per share over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of nearly 13.3% from the year-ago number.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.46 billion, implying a rise of 3.3% from the year-ago reported level.
MTB’s 2025 Outlook
M&T Bank expects NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) to be in the range of $7.05-$7.15 billion in 2025. Net interest margin is projected to be in the mid to high 3.60% range.
The company anticipates non-interest income to be between $2.5 billion and $2.6 billion in 2025.
For 2025, expenses (GAAP), including intangible amortization, are expected to be in the range of $5.4-$5.5 billion.
Average loan and lease balances are projected to be in the range of $135-$137 billion, while average total deposit balances are expected to be $162-$164 billion.
The net charge-off rate is projected to be 40 basis points, while the CET 1 ratio is expected to be between 10.75% and 11%.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post earnings beat this time:
The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KEY's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 38 cents per share.
The Earnings ESP for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Free Report) is +1.33% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FITB’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $1.01.
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Higher NII & Loan Growth to Aid MTB's Q4 Earnings, High Costs to Hurt
Key Takeaways
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 16, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have registered year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s results were supported by higher net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with modest loan growth. However, lower deposits, higher provisions for credit losses, and elevated expenses acted as a headwind.
Quarterly earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average earnings surprise being 5.42%.
M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
M&T Bank Corporation price-eps-surprise | M&T Bank Corporation Quote
Factors to Influence M&T Bank’s Q4 Results
Loans & NII: The overall lending environment remained healthy in the fourth quarter of 2025. Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial, real estate, and consumer loans stayed solid during the quarter. This is likely to have supported MTB’s lending activity and average interest-earning assets growth in the to-be-reported period.
The company expects average loan and lease balances to be between $137 billion and $138 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $136.5 billion reported in the third quarter of 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $192.3 billion, indicating a nearly 1% increase from the prior-quarter reported figure.
The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates twice during the fourth quarter, following a 25-basis-point cut in September. With the benchmark rate now in the 3.50–3.75% range, funding and deposit costs have eased. As such, M&T Bank’s NII is expected to have seen modest sequential growth in the reported quarter.
Management expects net interest income (on a tax-equivalent basis) to be approximately $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 2.2% from the prior quarter. Net interest margin is expected to remain in the mid-to-high 3.70% range, slightly above the 3.68% reported in the prior quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is the same as the company guidance, indicating a 1.1% increase from the prior quarter’s reported number.
Fee Income: MTB’s average total deposits are expected to have remained relatively stable in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is expected to have provided some support to revenues from service charges on deposit accounts.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $148.1 million, indicating a 5.1% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates declined meaningfully in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the levels seen earlier in the year, mainly driven by the Fed’s monetary policy easing. Lower mortgage rates supported refinancing activity and growth of origination volumes in the quarter. Hence, MTB’s mortgage banking income is expected to have positively impacted the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $149.8 million, indicating a 1.9% rise from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The consensus estimate for brokerage services income of $33.1 million indicates a 2.5% decline from that reported in the third quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust income of $185.2 million indicates an increase of 2.3% sequentially.
The company expects non-interest income to be in the range of $670 million to $690 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from $752 million reported in the third quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $679.2 million, indicating a 9.7% decline from the prior quarter’s actual.
Expenses: MTB’s expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting continued investments in strengthening its franchise.
Management expects GAAP expenses, including intangible amortization, to be in the range of $1.35–$1.37 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with $1.36 billion reported in the prior quarter.
Asset quality: M&T Bank is less likely to have set aside a significantly higher amount for potential delinquent loans in the fourth quarter of 2025, as interest rates have eased meaningfully from the earlier highs of 5–5.25%.
Management expects the net charge-off (NCO) rate to be in the range of 40–50 basis points, compared with 42 basis points in the third quarter of 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) is pegged at $1.51 billion, indicating a sequential decline of 2.3%.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for MTB
Per our proven model, the chances of M&T Bank beating estimates this time are high. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP:The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is +0.54%.
Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTB’s fourth-quarter earnings has been revised downward to $4.44 per share over the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of nearly 13.3% from the year-ago number.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.46 billion, implying a rise of 3.3% from the year-ago reported level.
MTB’s 2025 Outlook
M&T Bank expects NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) to be in the range of $7.05-$7.15 billion in 2025. Net interest margin is projected to be in the mid to high 3.60% range.
The company anticipates non-interest income to be between $2.5 billion and $2.6 billion in 2025.
For 2025, expenses (GAAP), including intangible amortization, are expected to be in the range of $5.4-$5.5 billion.
Average loan and lease balances are projected to be in the range of $135-$137 billion, while average total deposit balances are expected to be $162-$164 billion.
The net charge-off rate is projected to be 40 basis points, while the CET 1 ratio is expected to be between 10.75% and 11%.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is +1.20% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KEY's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 38 cents per share.
The Earnings ESP for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Free Report) is +1.33% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FITB’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $1.01.