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Barrick Mining's Gold Sales Drop Y/Y in Q3: Will It Rebound in Q4?

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Key Takeaways

  • Barrick's Q3 gold sales volumes dropped 13% year over year to 837,000 ounces.
  • Volume declines stemmed from weaker production due to the Loulo-Gounkoto mine suspension.
  • B expects 2025 gold output of 3.15-3.5M oz, down from 3.91M oz in 2024, excluding Loulo-Gounkoto.

Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) saw a 13% year-over-year decline in third-quarter 2025 gold sales volumes to 837,000 ounces. The downside in volumes was driven by lower year-over-year gold production, mainly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Notably, Barrick’s third-quarter production fell 12% year over year to 829,000 ounces.  

The company provided a tepid production forecast for 2025, with attributable gold production expected in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is temporarily suspended. The projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is projected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix. Divestments of Hemlo and Tongon are also anticipated to negatively impact production for the full year. 

The consensus estimate calls for a gold production of roughly 881,000 ounces in the fourth quarter, indicating an 18% year-over-year decline.  

Gold sales volume growth underpins Barrick’s ability to leverage higher gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on growth targets. Weaker year-over-year production may continue to impact sales volumes in the fourth quarter. Despite gains in realized gold prices, volume growth would be critical to sustain revenues and margins in the coming quarters.  

Among Barrick’s major peers, Newmont Corporation’s (NEM - Free Report) gold sales volumes fell sequentially and year over year in the third quarter on lower production. Newmont’s attributable gold ounces sold declined roughly 16% year over year and 4% from the prior quarter to roughly 1.31 million ounces. Newmont's attributable gold production of 1.42 million ounces in the third quarter was 15% lower than the prior-year quarter’s figure. 

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) saw a year-over-year increase in gold sales volumes in the third quarter. Agnico Eagle’s sales volumes rose 1% year over year to 868,563 ounces in the quarter on higher production. Agnico Eagle’s payable gold production was 866,963 ounces, up from 863,445 ounces in the prior-year quarter.  

B’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Barrick’s shares have gained 133.9% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 85.3%, courtesy of the gold price rally.

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From a valuation standpoint, B is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.97, a roughly 3.2% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 15.46X. It carries a Value Score of B.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 79.4%. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been stable over the past 60 days.

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B stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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