U.S. Bancorp (USB Quick QuoteUSB - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.

In the third quarter, U.S. Bancorp benefited from lower expenses, higher non-interest income and an increase in net interest income (NII), along with a strong capital position. However, higher provisions acted as a headwind.

USB has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the surprise being 4.7%, on average.

U.S. Bancorp Price and EPS Surprise

U.S. Bancorp price-eps-surprise | U.S. Bancorp Quote

Factors Influencing U.S. Bancorp’s Q4 Performance

NII: During the fourth quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates twice, bringing the benchmark rate down to the 3.50–3.75% range. Thus, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported USB’s NII growth.

Management expects NII for the fourth quarter of 2025 to remain relatively stable sequentially.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $4.29 billion, indicating a 1.8% increase from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

Loans: Despite uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, lending activity remained resilient in the fourth quarter, supported by improving macroeconomic clarity. Per the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans remained solid. As a result, USB’s lending activity is expected to have seen a decent improvement.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $620.8 million for average earning assets indicates a marginal sequential increase.

Non-Interest Income: The fourth quarter witnessed solid client activity and elevated market volatility, driven by the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, easing monetary policy and a dominant AI-led investment theme. Volatility remained high across equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. This might have aided capital markets revenue growth to some extent in the fourth quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets revenues is pegged at $414.6 million, indicating a decrease of 4.4% from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

During the fourth quarter, mortgage rates declined meaningfully, primarily driven by the Fed’s monetary policy easing. However, refinancing activity and origination volumes did not witness a notable pickup. Hence, U.S. Bancorp’s mortgage banking fees are likely to have remained under pressure in the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $166.9 million, which indicates a 7.3% decrease from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for income from card revenues is pegged at $441.9 million, indicating a marginal rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment management fees is pegged at $733.74 million, indicating a marginal rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $3.04 billion, indicating a sequential decline of 1.3%. Management expects total non-interest income to be approximately $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Expenses: Although the company has been implementing expense management actions, higher costs related to compensation and employee benefits, net occupancy and ongoing investments in technology-led initiatives are likely to have kept the expense base elevated.

Management projects total non-interest expenses to rise by around 1%–1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the prior quarter’s reported figure. Also, it anticipates a positive operating leverage of more than 200 bps.

Asset Quality: The company is likely to have set aside a modest amount of money for potential bad loans, given expectations of an additional rate cut this year, as signaled by the Federal Reserve, along with improving economic clarity.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $1.63 billion, indicating a rise of 1.4% from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for USB

Per our proven model, the chances of U.S. Bancorp beating estimates this time are high.  The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of +0.78%.

Zacks Rank: USB currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.19 has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 11.2% from the year-ago reported number.

The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $7.33 billion, indicating a rise of 4.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.

The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY Quick QuoteKEY - Free Report) is +0.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KEY's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 38 cents per share.

The Earnings ESP for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB Quick QuoteFITB - Free Report) is +1.33% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20.

Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FITB’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $1.01.