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Citizens Financial to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
CFG will report 4Q25 results on Jan. 21, with earnings and revenues expected to rise y/y.
Lower rates and solid loan demand are likely to support modest NII growth for Citizens Financial in Q4.
Expenses are likely to rise from expansion and tech spending, while fee income is expected to be flat for CFG.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Jan. 21, 2026, before the opening bell. The bank’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.
In the third quarter, CFG witnessed a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with an increase in the loan balance. However, higher expenses acted as a major headwind.
The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. On average, the positive surprise is 3.14%.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
NII: In the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice. This, along with a rate cut in September, lowered rates to 3.50-3.75%. With lower rates, funding/deposit costs are likely to have stabilized, supporting modest growth in CFG’s NII in the fourth quarter.
Management expects NII to rise 2.5-3% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.53 billion, indicating a 2.7% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Loans: The overall lending environment remained impressive in the fourth quarter. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial, industrial and consumer loans was robust in the quarter. This is likely to have supported the company’s average interest-earning asset growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $199.9 billion, indicating a 1.2% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Non-Interest Income: Mortgage rates declined notably in the fourth quarter from the levels observed at the start of 2025 and remained within a low-6% range. This was mainly driven by the Fed’s monetary policy easing. Hence, refinancing activity and origination volumes witnessed decent growth. As a result, Citizens Financial’s mortgage banking fees are likely to have positively impacted the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking fees is pegged at $51.5 million, indicating a 5.1% decline from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
The quarter witnessed heightened market volatility. Major factors that impacted the trading business in the quarter included the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, a dip in consumer sentiment, easing monetary policy and a dominant AI theme. Also, volatility was high in the equity markets. Hence, Citizens Financial's trust and investment services fees are likely to have recorded improvements in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment services fees is pegged at $96.3 million, indicating a 3.5% increase from the previous quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the service charge and fee revenues is pegged at $114.9 million, indicating a rise of 2.6% from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card fees is pegged at $89.6 million, indicating a 2.9% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Management expects fee income in the fourth quarter to be unchanged from the $630 million reported in the third quarter of 2025. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $619 million, indicating a 1.7% sequential decline.
Expenses: The opening of private banking offices, and investments in newer technological advancements are likely to have increased CFG’s expenses in the fourth quarter.
Adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to be stable or up slightly from the third-quarter 2025 reported level.
Asset Quality: The company is likely to have set aside a modest amount of money for potential delinquent loans, given a slowdown in job growth, which could pressure consumer demand and lead to higher delinquencies.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.57 billion, indicating a sequential rise of 3.3%.
What Our Model Unveils for CFG
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Citizen Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Citizen Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.05%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CFG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of $1.11 per share has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 30.6% from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $2.15 billion, indicating a rise of 8.2% from the year-ago reported figure.
CFG 2025 Outlook (Underlying Basis)
Management expects NII to rise 3-5% from $5.6 billion in 2024.
NIM is expected to be 3%, up from the 2.85% recorded in 2024.
Average loans are projected to be down 2-3% from the $139.2 billion registered in 2024.
Average earnings assets are forecast to fall 1% from the $198.1 billion posted in 2024.
Non-interest income is anticipated to rise 8-10% from the $2.6 billion reported in 2024.
Adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to grow 4% from the $5.1 billion registered in 2024.
Net charge-offs are suggested to be in the high 40 bps.
The CET1 ratio is envisioned to be 10.5-10.75%.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KEY's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 38 cents per share.
The Earnings ESP for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Free Report) is +1.33% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FITB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.01.
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Citizens Financial to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Jan. 21, 2026, before the opening bell. The bank’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.
In the third quarter, CFG witnessed a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with an increase in the loan balance. However, higher expenses acted as a major headwind.
The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. On average, the positive surprise is 3.14%.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Quote
Factors to Influence CFG's Q4 Earnings
NII: In the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice. This, along with a rate cut in September, lowered rates to 3.50-3.75%. With lower rates, funding/deposit costs are likely to have stabilized, supporting modest growth in CFG’s NII in the fourth quarter.
Management expects NII to rise 2.5-3% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.53 billion, indicating a 2.7% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Loans: The overall lending environment remained impressive in the fourth quarter. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial, industrial and consumer loans was robust in the quarter. This is likely to have supported the company’s average interest-earning asset growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $199.9 billion, indicating a 1.2% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Non-Interest Income: Mortgage rates declined notably in the fourth quarter from the levels observed at the start of 2025 and remained within a low-6% range. This was mainly driven by the Fed’s monetary policy easing. Hence, refinancing activity and origination volumes witnessed decent growth. As a result, Citizens Financial’s mortgage banking fees are likely to have positively impacted the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking fees is pegged at $51.5 million, indicating a 5.1% decline from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
The quarter witnessed heightened market volatility. Major factors that impacted the trading business in the quarter included the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, a dip in consumer sentiment, easing monetary policy and a dominant AI theme. Also, volatility was high in the equity markets. Hence, Citizens Financial's trust and investment services fees are likely to have recorded improvements in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment services fees is pegged at $96.3 million, indicating a 3.5% increase from the previous quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the service charge and fee revenues is pegged at $114.9 million, indicating a rise of 2.6% from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card fees is pegged at $89.6 million, indicating a 2.9% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Management expects fee income in the fourth quarter to be unchanged from the $630 million reported in the third quarter of 2025. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $619 million, indicating a 1.7% sequential decline.
Expenses: The opening of private banking offices, and investments in newer technological advancements are likely to have increased CFG’s expenses in the fourth quarter.
Adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to be stable or up slightly from the third-quarter 2025 reported level.
Asset Quality: The company is likely to have set aside a modest amount of money for potential delinquent loans, given a slowdown in job growth, which could pressure consumer demand and lead to higher delinquencies.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.57 billion, indicating a sequential rise of 3.3%.
What Our Model Unveils for CFG
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Citizen Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Citizen Financial has an Earnings ESP of -0.05%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CFG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings of $1.11 per share has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 30.6% from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $2.15 billion, indicating a rise of 8.2% from the year-ago reported figure.
CFG 2025 Outlook (Underlying Basis)
Management expects NII to rise 3-5% from $5.6 billion in 2024.
NIM is expected to be 3%, up from the 2.85% recorded in 2024.
Average loans are projected to be down 2-3% from the $139.2 billion registered in 2024.
Average earnings assets are forecast to fall 1% from the $198.1 billion posted in 2024.
Non-interest income is anticipated to rise 8-10% from the $2.6 billion reported in 2024.
Adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to grow 4% from the $5.1 billion registered in 2024.
Net charge-offs are suggested to be in the high 40 bps.
The CET1 ratio is envisioned to be 10.5-10.75%.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY - Free Report) is +0.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KEY's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at 38 cents per share.
The Earnings ESP for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - Free Report) is +1.33% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FITB’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.01.