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Here's How to Play Freeport-McMoRan Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release
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Key Takeaways
Freeport is set to report Q4 2025 results on Jan. 22 before the opening bell.
FCX is expected to benefit from favorable copper prices amid lower volumes from the Grasberg mine incident.
Higher unit cash costs and sharply lower copper and gold sales volumes are likely to pressure FCX's margins.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Jan. 22. While higher unit costs and weaker volumes are likely to have impacted FCX’s performance, it is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 28 cents per share, suggesting a 9.7% year-over-year decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues currently stands at $5.05 billion, indicating a 11.7% decline on a year-over-year basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
FCX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and reported in-line results once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.1% on average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q4 Earnings Whispers for FCX Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for FCX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. That is just the case here.
Freeport’s fourth-quarter results are expected to have reflected favorable copper prices. Prices of copper have been volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. COMEX copper, for the most part, remained above $5 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025 and gained around 18% in the quarter.
Copper prices have gained momentum this year, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data-center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Meanwhile, worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand have lifted the red metal. Supply risks have also grown amid worries over lower output and potential disruptions at major global mining operations. Prices of the red metal are currently hovering near $6 per pound.
Our estimate for the fourth-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $4.75 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 14.5%.
FCX’s results are likely to have been unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 635 million pounds, indicating a 35% sequential and a 36% year-over-year decline. The company has also issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting significant sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line in the fourth quarter.
Higher unit costs are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the December quarter. FCX saw an increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the third quarter of 2025 to $1.40 from $1.13 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 24% spike. The increase was fueled by a decline in copper sales volumes. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to have led to higher costs in the fourth quarter. Higher costs are likely to weigh on the company's margins.
FCX Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation
FCX’s shares have gained 45.7% in a year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 62.4% rise and the S&P 500’s increase of 17.3%. Its peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) , have rallied 83.4% and 29.4%, respectively, over the same period.
FCX’s One-year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Freeport is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.3X, a roughly 1.1% premium to the peer group average of 25.02X. FCX is trading at a premium to BHP Group and at a discount to Southern Copper. Freeport currently has a Value Score of B. BHP Group has a Value Score of C, while Southern Copper has a Value Score of D.
FCX’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, SCCO & BHP
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investment Thesis for FCX Stock
Freeport is well-placed with high-quality copper assets and remains focused on strong execution and advancing its organic growth opportunities. It is expected to gain from progress in exploration activities that will boost production capacity. FCX also has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to finance its growth projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable. The strength in copper prices should also support its profitability and drive cash flow generation.
Freeport, however, faces headwinds from higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Weaker copper volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident are also likely to weigh on its performance.
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto FCX Shares
FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value. Despite these positives, a weaker sales volume outlook and higher expected unit costs warrant caution. Holding onto the FCX stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release.
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Here's How to Play Freeport-McMoRan Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release
Key Takeaways
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Jan. 22. While higher unit costs and weaker volumes are likely to have impacted FCX’s performance, it is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward in the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 28 cents per share, suggesting a 9.7% year-over-year decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues currently stands at $5.05 billion, indicating a 11.7% decline on a year-over-year basis.
FCX beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and reported in-line results once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.1% on average.
Q4 Earnings Whispers for FCX Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for FCX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. That is just the case here.
FCX has an Earnings ESP of +6.05% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping FCX’s Q4 Results
Freeport’s fourth-quarter results are expected to have reflected favorable copper prices. Prices of copper have been volatile yet mostly favorable last year due to global economic and trade uncertainties. COMEX copper, for the most part, remained above $5 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2025 and gained around 18% in the quarter.
Copper prices have gained momentum this year, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data-center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Meanwhile, worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand have lifted the red metal. Supply risks have also grown amid worries over lower output and potential disruptions at major global mining operations. Prices of the red metal are currently hovering near $6 per pound.
Our estimate for the fourth-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $4.75 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 14.5%.
FCX’s results are likely to have been unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Freeport’s outlook for copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter assumes minimal contribution from its Indonesian operations due to the mine incident. FCX expects copper sales volumes of 635 million pounds, indicating a 35% sequential and a 36% year-over-year decline. The company has also issued weaker guidance for gold sales volume of 60,000 ounces, suggesting significant sequential and year-over-year decreases. Lower sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line in the fourth quarter.
Higher unit costs are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the December quarter. FCX saw an increase in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the third quarter of 2025 to $1.40 from $1.13 in the prior quarter, marking a roughly 24% spike. The increase was fueled by a decline in copper sales volumes. Lower expected sales volumes are likely to have led to higher costs in the fourth quarter. Higher costs are likely to weigh on the company's margins.
FCX Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation
FCX’s shares have gained 45.7% in a year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 62.4% rise and the S&P 500’s increase of 17.3%. Its peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO - Free Report) and BHP Group Limited (BHP - Free Report) , have rallied 83.4% and 29.4%, respectively, over the same period.
FCX’s One-year Price Performance
From a valuation standpoint, Freeport is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.3X, a roughly 1.1% premium to the peer group average of 25.02X. FCX is trading at a premium to BHP Group and at a discount to Southern Copper. Freeport currently has a Value Score of B. BHP Group has a Value Score of C, while Southern Copper has a Value Score of D.
FCX’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, SCCO & BHP
Investment Thesis for FCX Stock
Freeport is well-placed with high-quality copper assets and remains focused on strong execution and advancing its organic growth opportunities. It is expected to gain from progress in exploration activities that will boost production capacity. FCX also has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to finance its growth projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. Backed by strong financial health, the company's dividend is perceived to be safe and reliable. The strength in copper prices should also support its profitability and drive cash flow generation.
Freeport, however, faces headwinds from higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Weaker copper volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident are also likely to weigh on its performance.
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto FCX Shares
FCX is poised to gain from progress in expansion activities that will boost production capacity. Robust financial health allows FCX to invest in growth projects and drive shareholder value. Despite these positives, a weaker sales volume outlook and higher expected unit costs warrant caution. Holding onto the FCX stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release.