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Will Weak Gardasil Sales Continue to Ail MRK Revenues in Q4 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
Gardasil sales fell 40% in the first nine months of 2025 due to weak demand and excess inventory in China.
MRK's other vaccines, including ProQuad, Rotateq and Pneumovax 23, also saw sales decline.
MRK halted Gardasil shipments in China and expects vaccine sales to drop sharply in 2025 versus 2024 levels.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) continues to face persistent challenges with sales of its second-largest product, Gardasil, which is a vaccine used to prevent certain cancers caused by the human papillomavirus. Despite rising consistently till 2022, Gardasil’s sales began to decline from 2024.
In the first nine months of 2025, Gardasil sales declined 40% on a year-over-year basis to $4.20 billion. Sales of Gardasil are declining due to weak performance in China, which resulted from sluggish demand trends amid an economic slowdown. Lower demand in China resulted in above-normal channel inventory levels at Merck’s commercialization partner in China, Zhifei.
Accordingly, Merck decided to temporarily halt shipments of Gardasil in China to allow Zhifei to burn down existing inventory. The company is also seeing lower demand for the vaccine in Japan.
Merck expects Gardasil sales to decline significantly in 2025 from 2024 levels.
We expect Gardasil sales to remain weak in China as well as Japan when Merck reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 3.
MRK’s Other Vaccines & Competition in the Space
Besides Gardasil, Merck markets vaccines like ProQuad/ M-M-R II/Varivax (measles, mumps, rubella and varicella virus vaccine), Vaxneuvance (pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine), RotaTeq (rotavirus vaccine), Pneumovax 23 (pneumococcal vaccine polyvalent) and its newest jab, Capvaxive (21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine).
When MRK reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results early next month, investor focus will also be on the sales of other vaccines — such as ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, RotaTeq and Pneumovax 23 — which declined in the first nine months of 2025.
However, sales of the new vaccine, Capvaxive, are likely to have improved sequentially, driven by demand growth.
Merck’s newest respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibody, Enflonsia (clesrovimab), was approved in the United States in June 2025, while it is under review in the EU. The RSV antibody recorded sales worth $79 million in the third quarter of 2025, consisting of inventory stocking. Investors will be keen to know about the sales performance of Enflonsia during the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, Enflonsia faces competition from AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) /Sanofi’s (SNY - Free Report) RSV antibody Beyfortus, which was approved for a similar indication in 2023.
In the first nine months of 2025, the AZN/SNY antibody recorded sales worth €1.09 billion, up 33.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Besides antibodies, some vaccines have been approved for preventing RSV in certain patients in the United States. These include Pfizer’s Abrysvo, GSK’s Arexvy and Moderna’s mRESVIA.
MRK's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Over the past six months, shares of Merck have rallied 37.2%, compared with the industry’s 23.6% rise. The stock has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Merck appears attractive relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.54 forward earnings, lower than 17.72 for the industry but higher than its 5-year mean of 12.48.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has decreased from $8.97 to $8.96, while the same for 2026 has declined from $9.28 to $7.92 over the past 60 days.
Image: Bigstock
Will Weak Gardasil Sales Continue to Ail MRK Revenues in Q4 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Merck (MRK - Free Report) continues to face persistent challenges with sales of its second-largest product, Gardasil, which is a vaccine used to prevent certain cancers caused by the human papillomavirus. Despite rising consistently till 2022, Gardasil’s sales began to decline from 2024.
In the first nine months of 2025, Gardasil sales declined 40% on a year-over-year basis to $4.20 billion. Sales of Gardasil are declining due to weak performance in China, which resulted from sluggish demand trends amid an economic slowdown. Lower demand in China resulted in above-normal channel inventory levels at Merck’s commercialization partner in China, Zhifei.
Accordingly, Merck decided to temporarily halt shipments of Gardasil in China to allow Zhifei to burn down existing inventory. The company is also seeing lower demand for the vaccine in Japan.
Merck expects Gardasil sales to decline significantly in 2025 from 2024 levels.
We expect Gardasil sales to remain weak in China as well as Japan when Merck reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 3.
MRK’s Other Vaccines & Competition in the Space
Besides Gardasil, Merck markets vaccines like ProQuad/ M-M-R II/Varivax (measles, mumps, rubella and varicella virus vaccine), Vaxneuvance (pneumococcal 15-valent conjugate vaccine), RotaTeq (rotavirus vaccine), Pneumovax 23 (pneumococcal vaccine polyvalent) and its newest jab, Capvaxive (21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine).
When MRK reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results early next month, investor focus will also be on the sales of other vaccines — such as ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, RotaTeq and Pneumovax 23 — which declined in the first nine months of 2025.
However, sales of the new vaccine, Capvaxive, are likely to have improved sequentially, driven by demand growth.
Merck’s newest respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibody, Enflonsia (clesrovimab), was approved in the United States in June 2025, while it is under review in the EU. The RSV antibody recorded sales worth $79 million in the third quarter of 2025, consisting of inventory stocking. Investors will be keen to know about the sales performance of Enflonsia during the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, Enflonsia faces competition from AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) /Sanofi’s (SNY - Free Report) RSV antibody Beyfortus, which was approved for a similar indication in 2023.
In the first nine months of 2025, the AZN/SNY antibody recorded sales worth €1.09 billion, up 33.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Besides antibodies, some vaccines have been approved for preventing RSV in certain patients in the United States. These include Pfizer’s Abrysvo, GSK’s Arexvy and Moderna’s mRESVIA.
MRK's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Over the past six months, shares of Merck have rallied 37.2%, compared with the industry’s 23.6% rise. The stock has also outperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Merck appears attractive relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.54 forward earnings, lower than 17.72 for the industry but higher than its 5-year mean of 12.48.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has decreased from $8.97 to $8.96, while the same for 2026 has declined from $9.28 to $7.92 over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MRK's Zacks Rank
Merck currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.