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MOS Updates on Market and Issues Preliminary Q4 Sales Volumes

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Key Takeaways

  • MOS expects Q4 phosphate sales around 1.3Mt and potash around 2.2Mt amid weak North American demand.
  • Mosaic said phosphate affordability lagged potash, with North American phosphate shipments down about 20% YoY.
  • MOS cited Brazil credit strains and Chinese phosphate inflows, pressuring margins and sales; sees better 2026.

The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) issued an update on fertilizer markets and preliminary selected fourth-quarter 2025 results. The company has been facing a challenging North American fertilizer demand due to pressure on grower economics and early winter weather.

Phosphate markets were particularly hit by lower affordability compared to potash, while phosphate shipments in North America are estimated to be down about 20% year over year. Potash demand was also slightly impacted.

MOS sees fourth-quarter phosphate sales volumes of approximately 1.3 million tons and potash volumes of about 2.2 million tons, factoring in the challenging conditions. In response to the conditions, the company adjusted its phosphate production plans and redirected products to regions with stronger demand, maintaining production levels with the prior quarter. Lower sales and inventory build pressured cash flow during the quarter.

Market conditions in Brazil also deteriorated as credit constraints intensified and competition heightened. The influx of lower-analysis phosphate from China also hurt demand and margins. The Mosaic Fertilizantes’ sales volumes fell short of expectations, with full-year volumes at 9 million tons, flat year over year.

Despite the significant weakness in the fourth quarter, Mosaic expects a constructive 2026. Nutrients are expected to be replenished following last year’s strong crop. Additional government support for North American growers is also poised to provide some relief. Phosphate markets are balanced tightly, with prices reacting positively to global demand since the start of 2026. Potash markets remain balanced, with China’s early contract settlement providing price stability. It is forecasted that global phosphate and potash shipments could reach record levels in 2026, per MOS.

MOS stock has lost 2.9% over the past year compared with the industry’s 6.1% growth.

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MOS’ Zacks Rank & Key Picks

MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Other better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM - Free Report) .

At present, AEM and ALB sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while ASM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.93 per share, indicating a rise of 87.47% year over year. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.63%. AEM’s shares have gained 132.3% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALB’s 2025 earnings is pinned at a loss of $1.10 per share, indicating a 53% year-over-year increase. Its shares have surged 67.3% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s 2025 earnings is pinned at 17 cents per share, indicating a 13.33% year-over-year increase. ASM’s shares have gained 540% over the past year.

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