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Apple vs HP: Who Gains as AI PCs Rise and Memory Costs Surge?
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Key Takeaways
AAPL's Mac gains are driven by the new M5 chip and macOS Tahoe 26, boosting performance and user experience.
HPQ sees strong early adoption of AI PCs, but rising memory costs may weigh on 2026 earnings and margins.
AAPL's diversified manufacturing base may help navigate 2026's memory supply chain challenges effectively.
Apple (AAPL - Free Report) and HP (HPQ - Free Report) are well-known personal computer (PC) makers in a market that is expected to see a significant rise in DRAM and NAND/SSD prices due to a supply shortage driven by strong demand from AI data centers. IDC expects PC vendors to increase selling prices as cost pressures intensify in the second half of 2026. IDC expects PC shipments to contract between 2.2% and 8.9% in 2026 compared with 6.6% growth in 2025 due to challenging memory supply issues. So, PC vendors best able to manage their supply chain are expected to benefit in 2026. Nevertheless, rising demand for AI-powered PC is expected to be a key catalyst. So, Apple or HP, which PC vendor is well-positioned to ride these trends?
The Case for Apple Stock
Apple’s Mac business is benefiting from the latest macOS Tahoe 26 and the M5 chip. The company’s macOS Tahoe 26 introduces a stunning new design and powerful capabilities that enable users to get even more done with their Macs. Tahoe 26 offers personalized features, including an updated Control Center and new color options for folders, app icons and widgets. The Phone app on Mac now allows users to access familiar features from iPhone — including Recents, Contacts and Voicemails — and new ones like Call Screening and Hold Assist.
The M5 chip is built using 3 nm technology and introduces a next-generation 10-core GPU architecture, with a Neural Accelerator integrated into each core. This design enables GPU-based AI workloads to run, offering more than four times the peak GPU compute performance of M4. The new GPU also brings enhanced graphics capabilities and third-generation ray tracing, together delivering up to 45% higher graphics performance compared to M4. In October, Apple launched the new 14-inch MacBook Pro, powered by the M5 chip.
Apple’s strong Mac portfolio helped it gain market share in calendar 2025. Per IDC, Apple had a market share of 9%, up 30 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis. Shipment grew 11.1% year over year to hit 25.6 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal Mac sales is currently pegged at $8.43 billion, which indicates 9% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Apple’s diversified manufacturing base, which now includes India and Vietnam, is expected to help the iPhone-maker manage its supply chain. The company is now expanding its Apple Manufacturing Academy with new virtual programming as a part of its plan to invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy over the next four years.
The Case for HP Stock
Growing interest in Generative AI-enabled PCs might give a fresh boost to HP’s PC sales. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, AI PCs accounted for more than 30% of HP’s total PC shipments, reaching this milestone a quarter earlier than expected. These devices also deliver 5-10% higher average selling prices (ASPs) than traditional PCs, improving revenue mix and margins. Partnerships with Microsoft, Adobe and Zoom are accelerating adoption, as more applications are optimized for AI functionality. HP expects AI PCs to represent 40-50% of shipments in fiscal 2026, indicating a continued mix shift to richer configurations and higher ASPs.
HP’s forecast for fiscal 2026 PC demand raises concerns about the company’s growth prospects in the near term. The company expects PC unit volumes to fall in fiscal 2026, with only slight revenue growth coming from higher specifications, not from more buyers. The PC demand boost from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle is anticipated to fade in the second half of fiscal 2026, raising concern for investors. Rising DRAM and NAND prices may weigh on HP’s bottom-line performance in fiscal 2026. The company expects about 30-cents hit to non-GAAP earnings from higher memory costs in fiscal 2026.
Per IDC, HPQ had a market share of 20.2%, up 10 bps on a year-over-year basis in calendar 2025. Shipment grew 8.4% year over year to hit 57.5 million.
Earnings Estimate Revision Trend Positive for AAPL & HP
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HPQ’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.00 per share, down by 15 cents over the past 60 days, indicating an 4% decrease over fiscal 2025’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for AAPL’s fiscal 2026 earnings has increased by a penny to $8.13 per share over the past 60 days, suggesting 9% growth over fiscal 2025.
In the trailing 12-month period, Apple shares have appreciated 10.3%, outperforming HP, shares of which have dropped 40.2%.
AAPL and HPQ Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HP shares are cheaper compared with Apple. While HPQ has a Value Score of A, Apple has a Value Score of F, suggesting stretched valuation.
In terms of forward 12-month price/sales, HPQ shares are trading at 0.33X, lower than Apple’s 7.83X.
HPQ and AAPL Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Apple’s strong Mac portfolio, supported by the latest OS upgrade and the M5 chip, is positive for the iPhone maker’s growth trajectory in the personal computer domain. However, HP is expected to suffer from a memory shortage, which doesn’t bode well for investors.
Apple currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) while HP carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Image: Bigstock
Apple vs HP: Who Gains as AI PCs Rise and Memory Costs Surge?
Key Takeaways
Apple (AAPL - Free Report) and HP (HPQ - Free Report) are well-known personal computer (PC) makers in a market that is expected to see a significant rise in DRAM and NAND/SSD prices due to a supply shortage driven by strong demand from AI data centers. IDC expects PC vendors to increase selling prices as cost pressures intensify in the second half of 2026. IDC expects PC shipments to contract between 2.2% and 8.9% in 2026 compared with 6.6% growth in 2025 due to challenging memory supply issues. So, PC vendors best able to manage their supply chain are expected to benefit in 2026. Nevertheless, rising demand for AI-powered PC is expected to be a key catalyst. So, Apple or HP, which PC vendor is well-positioned to ride these trends?
The Case for Apple Stock
Apple’s Mac business is benefiting from the latest macOS Tahoe 26 and the M5 chip. The company’s macOS Tahoe 26 introduces a stunning new design and powerful capabilities that enable users to get even more done with their Macs. Tahoe 26 offers personalized features, including an updated Control Center and new color options for folders, app icons and widgets. The Phone app on Mac now allows users to access familiar features from iPhone — including Recents, Contacts and Voicemails — and new ones like Call Screening and Hold Assist.
The M5 chip is built using 3 nm technology and introduces a next-generation 10-core GPU architecture, with a Neural Accelerator integrated into each core. This design enables GPU-based AI workloads to run, offering more than four times the peak GPU compute performance of M4. The new GPU also brings enhanced graphics capabilities and third-generation ray tracing, together delivering up to 45% higher graphics performance compared to M4. In October, Apple launched the new 14-inch MacBook Pro, powered by the M5 chip.
Apple’s strong Mac portfolio helped it gain market share in calendar 2025. Per IDC, Apple had a market share of 9%, up 30 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis. Shipment grew 11.1% year over year to hit 25.6 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal Mac sales is currently pegged at $8.43 billion, which indicates 9% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Apple’s diversified manufacturing base, which now includes India and Vietnam, is expected to help the iPhone-maker manage its supply chain. The company is now expanding its Apple Manufacturing Academy with new virtual programming as a part of its plan to invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy over the next four years.
The Case for HP Stock
Growing interest in Generative AI-enabled PCs might give a fresh boost to HP’s PC sales. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, AI PCs accounted for more than 30% of HP’s total PC shipments, reaching this milestone a quarter earlier than expected. These devices also deliver 5-10% higher average selling prices (ASPs) than traditional PCs, improving revenue mix and margins. Partnerships with Microsoft, Adobe and Zoom are accelerating adoption, as more applications are optimized for AI functionality. HP expects AI PCs to represent 40-50% of shipments in fiscal 2026, indicating a continued mix shift to richer configurations and higher ASPs.
HP’s forecast for fiscal 2026 PC demand raises concerns about the company’s growth prospects in the near term. The company expects PC unit volumes to fall in fiscal 2026, with only slight revenue growth coming from higher specifications, not from more buyers. The PC demand boost from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle is anticipated to fade in the second half of fiscal 2026, raising concern for investors. Rising DRAM and NAND prices may weigh on HP’s bottom-line performance in fiscal 2026. The company expects about 30-cents hit to non-GAAP earnings from higher memory costs in fiscal 2026.
Per IDC, HPQ had a market share of 20.2%, up 10 bps on a year-over-year basis in calendar 2025. Shipment grew 8.4% year over year to hit 57.5 million.
Earnings Estimate Revision Trend Positive for AAPL & HP
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HPQ’s fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at $3.00 per share, down by 15 cents over the past 60 days, indicating an 4% decrease over fiscal 2025’s reported figure.
HP Inc. Price and Consensus
HP Inc. price-consensus-chart | HP Inc. Quote
The consensus mark for AAPL’s fiscal 2026 earnings has increased by a penny to $8.13 per share over the past 60 days, suggesting 9% growth over fiscal 2025.
Apple Inc. Price and Consensus
Apple Inc. price-consensus-chart | Apple Inc. Quote
AAPL and HPQ Stock’s Performance and Valuation
In the trailing 12-month period, Apple shares have appreciated 10.3%, outperforming HP, shares of which have dropped 40.2%.
AAPL and HPQ Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
HP shares are cheaper compared with Apple. While HPQ has a Value Score of A, Apple has a Value Score of F, suggesting stretched valuation.
In terms of forward 12-month price/sales, HPQ shares are trading at 0.33X, lower than Apple’s 7.83X.
HPQ and AAPL Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Apple’s strong Mac portfolio, supported by the latest OS upgrade and the M5 chip, is positive for the iPhone maker’s growth trajectory in the personal computer domain. However, HP is expected to suffer from a memory shortage, which doesn’t bode well for investors.
Apple currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) while HP carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.