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Tesla to Report Q4 Earnings: Will Robust Energy Unit Deliver Growth?
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Key Takeaways
TSLA will report Q4 results with energy growth that could help offset pressure from vehicle deliveries.
Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage revenues reached $3.4B in Q3, up 44% year over year.
Tesla set a Q4 record with 14.2 GWh energy storage deployments & launched a new U.S. solar Powerwall lease.
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, after the closing bell. The company’s Energy Generation and Storage business is showing signs of exceptional growth amid declining vehicle deliveries.
TSLA missed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average negative surprise being 11.10%.
Tesla’s third-quarter production totaled 447,450 units (435,826 Model 3/Y and 11,624 other models), which declined 5% year over year and missed our estimate of 451,948 units. The company delivered 497,099 cars (481,166 Model 3/Y and 15,933 other models) worldwide in the fourth quarter, setting a new record. The figure rose 7.4% from the year-ago quarter, after three consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 481,166 vehicles, which rose 9% year over year and topped our expectations of 416,456 units.
Total automotive revenues of $21.2 billion were up 6% year over year and topped our estimate of $18.86 billion. The reported figure also included $417 million from the sale of regulatory credits for electric vehicles, which decreased 43.6% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $20.4 billion, which surpassed our projection of $18 billion on higher-than-expected deliveries.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $3.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025, which rose 44% year over year and beat our estimate of $2.9 billion. Notably, energy storage deployments came in at 12.5 GWh.
Strong Energy Generation and Storage Business to Aid TSLA
Tesla's revenues from the Energy Generation and Storage business are on a robust growth trajectory on the back of the strong reception of its Megapack and Powerwall products. In the fourth quarter, Tesla introduced a new U.S. leasing option for solar plus Powerwall, offering customers stable energy costs instead of rising utility bills. The program features lower monthly payments than loans, a full-term system availability guarantee and a buyout option after five years. This plan is expected to have boosted demand for Tesla’s residential energy products.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products, setting a new record. We expect revenues from the Energy Generation/Storage segment to be $3.4 billion, suggesting an uptick of 11% on a year-over-year basis.
The Energy Generation/Storage segment stands out as Tesla's most lucrative, boasting the highest margins. Our estimate for gross margin for the segment is 31.1%, suggesting an improvement of 5.9 percentage points from the year-ago quarter. Growing demand for energy deployment and expanding gross margin in the Energy Generation/Storage segment are expected to have enhanced the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Tesla
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $25.11 billion and 44 cents/share. The consensus mark for earnings per share has moved down by 2 cents over the past 30 days.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla, as it does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $5.19 per share and $8.17 billion. CMI surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 20.24%.
BorgWarner (BWA - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.47% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BorgWarner’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.15 per share and $3.49 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 11.03%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. The company has an Earnings ESP of +12.02% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 68 cents per share and $1.26 billion. RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 12.42%.
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Tesla to Report Q4 Earnings: Will Robust Energy Unit Deliver Growth?
Key Takeaways
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, after the closing bell. The company’s Energy Generation and Storage business is showing signs of exceptional growth amid declining vehicle deliveries.
TSLA missed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average negative surprise being 11.10%.
Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Q3 Highlights
Tesla’s third-quarter production totaled 447,450 units (435,826 Model 3/Y and 11,624 other models), which declined 5% year over year and missed our estimate of 451,948 units. The company delivered 497,099 cars (481,166 Model 3/Y and 15,933 other models) worldwide in the fourth quarter, setting a new record. The figure rose 7.4% from the year-ago quarter, after three consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 481,166 vehicles, which rose 9% year over year and topped our expectations of 416,456 units.
Total automotive revenues of $21.2 billion were up 6% year over year and topped our estimate of $18.86 billion. The reported figure also included $417 million from the sale of regulatory credits for electric vehicles, which decreased 43.6% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $20.4 billion, which surpassed our projection of $18 billion on higher-than-expected deliveries.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $3.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025, which rose 44% year over year and beat our estimate of $2.9 billion. Notably, energy storage deployments came in at 12.5 GWh.
Strong Energy Generation and Storage Business to Aid TSLA
Tesla's revenues from the Energy Generation and Storage business are on a robust growth trajectory on the back of the strong reception of its Megapack and Powerwall products. In the fourth quarter, Tesla introduced a new U.S. leasing option for solar plus Powerwall, offering customers stable energy costs instead of rising utility bills. The program features lower monthly payments than loans, a full-term system availability guarantee and a buyout option after five years. This plan is expected to have boosted demand for Tesla’s residential energy products.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products, setting a new record. We expect revenues from the Energy Generation/Storage segment to be $3.4 billion, suggesting an uptick of 11% on a year-over-year basis.
The Energy Generation/Storage segment stands out as Tesla's most lucrative, boasting the highest margins. Our estimate for gross margin for the segment is 31.1%, suggesting an improvement of 5.9 percentage points from the year-ago quarter. Growing demand for energy deployment and expanding gross margin in the Energy Generation/Storage segment are expected to have enhanced the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Tesla
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s sales and earnings is pegged at $25.11 billion and 44 cents/share. The consensus mark for earnings per share has moved down by 2 cents over the past 30 days.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla, as it does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
Cummins Inc. (CMI - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.82% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $5.19 per share and $8.17 billion. CMI surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 20.24%.
BorgWarner (BWA - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.47% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BorgWarner’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.15 per share and $3.49 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 11.03%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. The company has an Earnings ESP of +12.02% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 68 cents per share and $1.26 billion. RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 12.42%.