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Likely ETF Winners & Losers From Winter Storm Fern
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Key Takeaways
UNG rose as heating demand surged, pushing U.S. natural gas futures above $7/MMBtu during the storm.
XLY may face pressure as snowbound, high-income Northeast regions curb discretionary spending amid alerts.
JETS is under pressure after 13,000 flight cancellations, raising lost revenues and operating costs.
A powerful winter storm swept across much of the United States, stretching from Texas to New England, bringing heavy snow, ice and Arctic cold that disrupted daily life across large parts of the country. More than 13,000 flights were canceled, and power outages affected thousands of homes.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave projects that Winter Storm Fern will cut first-quarter 2026 GDP by 0.5-1.5pp [at a quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate], as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Delayed economic activity is likely to cut back growth.
Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate the storm could reduce 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from first-quarter GDP, as mentioned on MarketWatch. Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few sector-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could win/lose due to snowstorm Fern.
Likely Winners
Natural Gas – United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG - Free Report)
Natural gas prices jumped in recent sessions due to this massive snowstorm, which sharply boosted heating demand. Colder weather ahead may support further gains. For the first time since 2022, U.S. natural gas futures rose above $7/MMBtu as the ice storm swept parts of the country, as quoted on FX Leaders.
Materials – The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB - Free Report)
Fern should shower gains on infrastructure stocks as rebuilding will push up their demand. So, companies dealing in building materials should see a surge. ETFs like XLB have higher chances of outperforming.
Likely Losers
Consumer Discretionary – State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY - Free Report)
Fern’s impact has been concentrated in the Northeast, a region with a higher share of high-income households, according to BofA. When these high-spending areas are snowbound, the drag on discretionary spending is likely to be noticeable.Note that about 70% of the population is under winter weather alerts now.
The airline industry has been particularly hit hard, with thousands of flights cancelled. It became one of the most troublesome weather events in U.S. travel history. Lost revenues and escalating operational costs are likely to weigh on first-quarter earnings for the U.S. airlines.
The severe impact from Fern could roil rail and container activity and crush infrastructure for transportation. Airlines are already badly hit. Naturally, transportation ETFs like XTNmay feel the pressure.
Mixed-Bag Impact
Insurance – iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK - Free Report)
The average insurance loss claimed for water damage and freezing was $15,400 from 2019 to 2023, per the Insurance Information Institute. The average for wind and hail was about $14,700, as quoted on CNBC. So, the impact of Winter Storm Fern on insurance stocks could be damaging.
However, investors should note that insurance stocks have been rising lately despite potential insured losses from Winter Storm Fern. Strong industry fundamentals can be held responsible for this performance. Potential insured losses from ice damage probably fall within expected annual catastrophe losses.
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Likely ETF Winners & Losers From Winter Storm Fern
Key Takeaways
A powerful winter storm swept across much of the United States, stretching from Texas to New England, bringing heavy snow, ice and Arctic cold that disrupted daily life across large parts of the country. More than 13,000 flights were canceled, and power outages affected thousands of homes.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave projects that Winter Storm Fern will cut first-quarter 2026 GDP by 0.5-1.5pp [at a quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate], as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Delayed economic activity is likely to cut back growth.
Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate the storm could reduce 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points from first-quarter GDP, as mentioned on MarketWatch. Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few sector-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could win/lose due to snowstorm Fern.
Likely Winners
Natural Gas – United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG - Free Report)
Natural gas prices jumped in recent sessions due to this massive snowstorm, which sharply boosted heating demand. Colder weather ahead may support further gains. For the first time since 2022, U.S. natural gas futures rose above $7/MMBtu as the ice storm swept parts of the country, as quoted on FX Leaders.
Materials – The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB - Free Report)
Fern should shower gains on infrastructure stocks as rebuilding will push up their demand. So, companies dealing in building materials should see a surge. ETFs like XLB have higher chances of outperforming.
Likely Losers
Consumer Discretionary – State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY - Free Report)
Fern’s impact has been concentrated in the Northeast, a region with a higher share of high-income households, according to BofA. When these high-spending areas are snowbound, the drag on discretionary spending is likely to be noticeable.Note that about 70% of the population is under winter weather alerts now.
Airlines – U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS - Free Report)
The airline industry has been particularly hit hard, with thousands of flights cancelled. It became one of the most troublesome weather events in U.S. travel history. Lost revenues and escalating operational costs are likely to weigh on first-quarter earnings for the U.S. airlines.
Transportation – SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN - Free Report)
The severe impact from Fern could roil rail and container activity and crush infrastructure for transportation. Airlines are already badly hit. Naturally, transportation ETFs like XTN may feel the pressure.
Mixed-Bag Impact
Insurance – iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK - Free Report)
Winter storms caused about $6 billion in insured losses in the United States in 2022, the second-highest year on record for winter storm insured losses in the last 10 years, according to Aon, per the Insurance Information Institute.
The average insurance loss claimed for water damage and freezing was $15,400 from 2019 to 2023, per the Insurance Information Institute. The average for wind and hail was about $14,700, as quoted on CNBC. So, the impact of Winter Storm Fern on insurance stocks could be damaging.
However, investors should note that insurance stocks have been rising lately despite potential insured losses from Winter Storm Fern. Strong industry fundamentals can be held responsible for this performance. Potential insured losses from ice damage probably fall within expected annual catastrophe losses.