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Retail REITs That Appear Well Poised to Surpass Q4 Expectations
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As the earnings season unfolds in early 2026, retail REITs are being assessed based on how they finished 2025. The final quarter reflected a sector that had largely stabilized after years of uneven recovery, supported by steady consumer demand, diminished uncertainty from tariffs and disciplined supply growth. Also, holiday sales were resilient. Cushman & Wakefield’s (CW - Free Report) K) fourth-quarter 2025 retail real estate market report reinforces this improving tone as landlords entered year-end with firmer fundamentals.
Within this setup, several retail REITs are set to report results, including Simon Property Group (SPG - Free Report) , Regency Centers (REG - Free Report) , Kimco Realty (KIM - Free Report) and Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT - Free Report) . These names span malls and open-air shopping centers, offering varied exposure across necessity-driven and discretionary retail. Their fourth results will help clarify how late-2025 market conditions translated into earnings momentum.
Retail Real Estate Market Conditions in Q4 2025
Cushman’s fourth-quarter 2025 data points to strengthening retail demand, with net absorption turning positive across all major U.S. regions. National retail vacancy came in at 5.7%, reflecting relatively tight conditions compared with historical norms. New supply remained limited, helping stabilize occupancy across both mall and shopping center formats.
Leasing momentum improved toward year-end, driven by grocery chains, discount retailers and experiential tenants absorbing secondary space. Cushman reported approximately 3.4 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter, the strongest quarterly improvement since the fourth quarter of 2023. Asking rents continued to trend higher on a year-over-year basis to $$25.29 psf, supported by stable tenant sales and foot traffic.
Retail Real Estate Outlook
Retail real estate fundamentals appear positioned for steady performance rather than rapid acceleration. Cushman expects vacancy to remain below 6% into 2026, with rent growth in the 2-2.5% range. For well-located assets with strong tenant mixes, these conditions set a constructive backdrop as retail REITs aim to convert stable operations into earnings upside.
The Zacks Methodology
Picking the right stock could be difficult unless one knows the proper method. To make the task simple, we rely on the Zacks methodology, combining a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP.
Our proprietary methodology, Earnings ESP, shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Research shows that for stocks with this combination of the Zacks Rank and ESP, chances of a positive earnings surprise are as high as 70%.
Here are four Retail REITs that have the right combination of elements to deliver positive surprises this earnings season.
Simon Property Group currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.67% for the quarter under review. Over the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, the average beat being 3.54%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Simon Property is expected to have benefited from its collection of high-quality assets, both domestically and abroad. The company’s strategic focus on omnichannel integration and partnerships with leading retailers is expected to have driven meaningful gains. Additionally, Simon Property’s commitment to mixed-use developments, an increasingly popular concept combining residential, office and leisure spaces, is likely to have enhanced growth opportunities in key markets. Also, the retail REIT behemoth is expected to continue enjoying balance sheet strength.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is presently pegged at $1.63 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.84% year over year. The consensus mark for the quarterly funds from operations (FFO) per share is pegged at $3.47.
Regency Centers currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.11% for the quarter under review. Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s NAREIT FFO per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate on one occasion and surpassed in the other three periods, the average beat being 1.58%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Regency Centers is expected to deliver steady results in the fourth quarter, supported by its well-located portfolio of premium shopping centers, concentrated in affluent suburban areas and near urban trade areas where consumers have high spending power. The company’s focus on grocery-anchored shopping centers ensures dependable traffic. It is witnessing solid demand for its centers in a healthy retail real estate environment, driving leasing activity, occupancy levels and rent growth. Strategic buyouts and an encouraging development pipeline bode well for long-term growth.
Regency Centers is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 5, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $398.94 million, which suggests a 7.09% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fourth-quarter 2025 NAREIT FFO per share has been revised a cent upward to $1.17 over the past week, and it implies 7.34% growth year over year.
Regency Centers Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Kimco holds a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.43% at present. Over the trailing four quarters, KIM’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and met once, the average beat being 2.36%.
In the fourth quarter, Kimco is expected to have gained from its portfolio of premium shopping centers, which are predominantly grocery-anchored and are in the drivable first-ring suburbs of its top major metropolitan Sunbelt and coastal markets.
Led by a healthy mix of essential, necessity-based tenants and omnichannel retailers, this retail REIT enjoys a diverse tenant base. This is likely to have aided stable revenue generation during the to-be-reported quarter, driving top-line growth. Moreover, Kimco’s focus on developing mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas is likely to have given it an edge by driving net asset value.
Kimco is scheduled to report its quarterly figures on Feb. 12, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $537.59 million, calling for a 2.32% increase year over year. The consensus mark for the quarterly FFO per share stands at 44 cents and suggests a jump of 4.76% year over year.
Federal Realty currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.90% for the quarter under review. Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the other period, the average beat being 2.89%.
In the fourth quarter, Federal Realty is likely to have gained from improving demand for its premium retail assets in upscale geographic locations, along with a diverse tenant base. In addition, the constrained supply levels are likely to have positively impacted its occupancy and rent growth. Moreover, FRT’s focus on adding value accretive acquisitions to its portfolio and development of urban mixed-use assets is expected to have given it an edge, contributing to its revenue growth.
Federal Realty Income is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $328.96 million, which suggests a 5.63% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fourth-quarter 2025 FFO per share has been revised a cent upward to $1.86 over the past week. It implies 7.51% growth year over year.
Federal Realty Investment Trust Price and EPS Surprise
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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Retail REITs That Appear Well Poised to Surpass Q4 Expectations
As the earnings season unfolds in early 2026, retail REITs are being assessed based on how they finished 2025. The final quarter reflected a sector that had largely stabilized after years of uneven recovery, supported by steady consumer demand, diminished uncertainty from tariffs and disciplined supply growth. Also, holiday sales were resilient. Cushman & Wakefield’s (CW - Free Report) K) fourth-quarter 2025 retail real estate market report reinforces this improving tone as landlords entered year-end with firmer fundamentals.
Within this setup, several retail REITs are set to report results, including Simon Property Group (SPG - Free Report) , Regency Centers (REG - Free Report) , Kimco Realty (KIM - Free Report) and Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT - Free Report) . These names span malls and open-air shopping centers, offering varied exposure across necessity-driven and discretionary retail. Their fourth results will help clarify how late-2025 market conditions translated into earnings momentum.
Retail Real Estate Market Conditions in Q4 2025
Cushman’s fourth-quarter 2025 data points to strengthening retail demand, with net absorption turning positive across all major U.S. regions. National retail vacancy came in at 5.7%, reflecting relatively tight conditions compared with historical norms. New supply remained limited, helping stabilize occupancy across both mall and shopping center formats.
Leasing momentum improved toward year-end, driven by grocery chains, discount retailers and experiential tenants absorbing secondary space. Cushman reported approximately 3.4 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter, the strongest quarterly improvement since the fourth quarter of 2023. Asking rents continued to trend higher on a year-over-year basis to $$25.29 psf, supported by stable tenant sales and foot traffic.
Retail Real Estate Outlook
Retail real estate fundamentals appear positioned for steady performance rather than rapid acceleration. Cushman expects vacancy to remain below 6% into 2026, with rent growth in the 2-2.5% range. For well-located assets with strong tenant mixes, these conditions set a constructive backdrop as retail REITs aim to convert stable operations into earnings upside.
The Zacks Methodology
Picking the right stock could be difficult unless one knows the proper method. To make the task simple, we rely on the Zacks methodology, combining a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP.
Our proprietary methodology, Earnings ESP, shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Research shows that for stocks with this combination of the Zacks Rank and ESP, chances of a positive earnings surprise are as high as 70%.
Here are four Retail REITs that have the right combination of elements to deliver positive surprises this earnings season.
Simon Property Group currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.67% for the quarter under review. Over the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, the average beat being 3.54%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Simon Property is expected to have benefited from its collection of high-quality assets, both domestically and abroad. The company’s strategic focus on omnichannel integration and partnerships with leading retailers is expected to have driven meaningful gains. Additionally, Simon Property’s commitment to mixed-use developments, an increasingly popular concept combining residential, office and leisure spaces, is likely to have enhanced growth opportunities in key markets. Also, the retail REIT behemoth is expected to continue enjoying balance sheet strength.
Simon Property is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 2, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is presently pegged at $1.63 billion, which indicates an increase of 2.84% year over year. The consensus mark for the quarterly funds from operations (FFO) per share is pegged at $3.47.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Simon Property Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Simon Property Group, Inc. Quote
Regency Centers currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.11% for the quarter under review. Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s NAREIT FFO per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate on one occasion and surpassed in the other three periods, the average beat being 1.58%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Regency Centers is expected to deliver steady results in the fourth quarter, supported by its well-located portfolio of premium shopping centers, concentrated in affluent suburban areas and near urban trade areas where consumers have high spending power. The company’s focus on grocery-anchored shopping centers ensures dependable traffic. It is witnessing solid demand for its centers in a healthy retail real estate environment, driving leasing activity, occupancy levels and rent growth. Strategic buyouts and an encouraging development pipeline bode well for long-term growth.
Regency Centers is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 5, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $398.94 million, which suggests a 7.09% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fourth-quarter 2025 NAREIT FFO per share has been revised a cent upward to $1.17 over the past week, and it implies 7.34% growth year over year.
Regency Centers Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Regency Centers Corporation price-eps-surprise | Regency Centers Corporation Quote
Kimco holds a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.43% at present. Over the trailing four quarters, KIM’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and met once, the average beat being 2.36%.
In the fourth quarter, Kimco is expected to have gained from its portfolio of premium shopping centers, which are predominantly grocery-anchored and are in the drivable first-ring suburbs of its top major metropolitan Sunbelt and coastal markets.
Led by a healthy mix of essential, necessity-based tenants and omnichannel retailers, this retail REIT enjoys a diverse tenant base. This is likely to have aided stable revenue generation during the to-be-reported quarter, driving top-line growth. Moreover, Kimco’s focus on developing mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas is likely to have given it an edge by driving net asset value.
Kimco is scheduled to report its quarterly figures on Feb. 12, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $537.59 million, calling for a 2.32% increase year over year. The consensus mark for the quarterly FFO per share stands at 44 cents and suggests a jump of 4.76% year over year.
Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote
Federal Realty currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.90% for the quarter under review. Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the other period, the average beat being 2.89%.
In the fourth quarter, Federal Realty is likely to have gained from improving demand for its premium retail assets in upscale geographic locations, along with a diverse tenant base. In addition, the constrained supply levels are likely to have positively impacted its occupancy and rent growth. Moreover, FRT’s focus on adding value accretive acquisitions to its portfolio and development of urban mixed-use assets is expected to have given it an edge, contributing to its revenue growth.
Federal Realty Income is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $328.96 million, which suggests a 5.63% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fourth-quarter 2025 FFO per share has been revised a cent upward to $1.86 over the past week. It implies 7.51% growth year over year.
Federal Realty Investment Trust Price and EPS Surprise
Federal Realty Investment Trust price-eps-surprise | Federal Realty Investment Trust Quote
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.